Eastern Showdown

Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh
Finally get some quiet time and I feel fine enough to type.

The Lightning - how did they get here?

First Round - 5 games over Detroit
Detroit was out-matched at every angle. Datsyuk never looked Datsyuk-like. In the games I watched, I might have seen one sick move and maybe one of his slick wristers. It isn't enough and wasn't. Tampa looked very good, but I dismissed a lot of the strong success because it was a thinned-out Detroit and their top players weren't effective. Looking back, they weren't effective because the likes of Hedman and the other defensemen are solid and speedy.

Second Round - 5 games over the New York Islanders

The Islanders were certainly more competition. They dismissed Florida in 6 games and although the Panthers had holes in their game, I didn't believe the Isles were deep enough to exploit them. They did and looked solid doing so.  Tampa, however, surprising me again with their ability to shut down the Isles and the Isles lack of forward depth was too much to overcome. Again, I blamed the competition more than crediting the Lightning. Looking back, the Lightning, without Stamkos and Stralman - big minutes and top skill guys - are still deep on talent for their system. Hedman is looking like Chara in his prime.

The Penguins - how did they get here.

First Round - 5 games over the New York Rangers
This went very much as expected. Lundqvist (as all goalies) wasn't enough to stop Pittsburgh three lines and the Rangers' lack of speed hurt them going both directions. Hard to know what Pittsburgh had going for them from this series. It was just a bad matchup. Looking back - nothing changes. Pittsburgh won in every area of the ice.

Second Round - 6 games over Washington

This was somewhat of a surprise. Mainly in how ineffective the Caps were at scoring. They generated chances and were able to counter the Pens' speed, they just couldn't put it in the net. Some of that is the solid play of Pittsburgh 2nd/3rd string goalie, Matt Murray. Some of it was just the inept plays by some of the Caps' go-to players. I don't how many times I watched the Caps blow a rush with a bad pass. Or blow a solid scoring opportunity with a shot on the ice to one of Murray's leg pads. The Caps powerplay which has run effectively through Ovechkin all season (and for years) couldn't get creative once the Pens started allowing Ovie the shot, they would overplay that shot and he basically had to place it high and to the corner every time - didn't happen. Pens win - handily!

After those two rounds, I was totally leaning to Pittsburgh for the Conference Finals win. I was believing in Tampa more but still unsure of their speed. If the Pens get the break and transition game working, they enter the zone with good control and they have a lot of finishers. This is still the case. However, after game one, I have to say, the Lightning have the speed to match all of the Pens' lines and Hedman is truly shining.

The next game will tell a lot. No matter who wins, it will be interesting to see if the Pens can have impact with their speed. Can Hedman and company continue getting their sticks on the puck, disrupting the Pens' offense? Both teams had chances but the Pens' chances were nothing like they have had in the first two rounds.

I am certainly respecting the Lightning. Their speed is solid. And they may be the best finishing team in the league. If Stamkos and Stralman return and don't mess up the flow - they might actually win the Cup this year.

Western Showdown

St. Louis vs San Jose

 

The Sharks - how did they get here?

First Round - 5 games over Los Angeles
History can be a driving force in the way I look at things, and this was certainly the case with this series. I believed in both teams but just leaned on the Kings' past and what their core is made of. But the losses to their defense has been too much for them - primarily that Slava Voynov domestic debacle weaked the blueline and Muzzin and Martinez haven't filled that hole. San Jose looked so good here and I though going in, if they get past the Kings, they can win the whole thing. They have it all - forward skill. Forward finishers. Defensive threat in Burns. And with Ward and Couture, they have the toughness (I've been saying this since they got Couture a few years ago - but don't underestimate the impact of a guy like Joel Ward). In this series, everything showed up.

Second Round - 7 games over Nashville

For all the confidence I gained for the Sharks in round one, I lost as much in round two. They came out dominant early in the series and looked to blow the Preds out. But they failed to go in for the kill. I was disappointed - Nashville is good but not great. Forward depth (especially with an ineffective Filip Forsberg) isn't great. The defense is thin after Josi and Weber. And Rinne is exposed - if he has to move a lot laterally he gets destroyed. Anyway, the Sharks let this well-coached Predator team back in. What should have been a 5 game series went seven. That said, they were clicking in that final game.

The Blues - how did they get here?

First Round - 7 games over Chicago
This was what the San Jose - LA series was supposed to be. Having watched the Blues this season, I believed this was the year for them. They didn't let me down in round one. It was a great series - the defending champs didn't lay over - their high-end skill allowed for quick strikes and kept them in games where St. Louis controlled flow. St. Louis won on depth - both ends of the ice and skill and toughness and speed. This team proved they can muscle through playing that Hitchcock system rolling four lines.

Second Round - 7 games over Dallas

Not as disappointing as the Sharks' 2nd round, but St. Louis didn't show a killer instinct here as well. Most of the series, in every game, the Sharks had no answers for St. Louis' depth. The reason the Stars were even in the playoffs and in the series is because of the top-level offensive talent. Dallas' defensive holes (forwards and d depth) was obvious, yet the Stars were able to stretch it to a seventh game. That game was decisive, however, and the Blues' team just never slowed down. A lot is blamed on Dallas' goaltending - well, Dallas, go out and grab Lundqvist, if you can; make no other adjustments and end up in a similar spot next year. You have no defensive forward line and your mobile d-men are a liability with some solid defensive-minded guys to help them out.

After the two rounds, I don't know where to lean. Both the Sharks and the Blues have shown dominance. The Blues run a deeper team with no holes on defense. The Sharks have a better finishing team. Can the Sharks counter the third and fourth lines of the Blues? Can the Blues keep Pavelski and Couture and Burns in check without opening up to Marleau and Thornton?

It should go 7. I'll say Blues, but I may change that after tonight.

One win...overall a great game by the NYR

I watched no games last night...very embarrassing, really.

But I watched the Rangers today and I am impressed. To win three more won't be easy, but the Rangers showed how porous the Pittsburgh team is to quick attacks. Look forward to seeing what the Penguins will do to respond.

I can't expect the Rangers to win this series, but these two games makes me think they have a chance. Of course every team has a chance, but until this game, I just didn't think the Rangers would be creating the chances they created today. Granted, the Pens didn't finish some quality chances themselves. That happens. But the Rangers can't count on it. Lundqvist played great - holding solid at the end and saving everything on the ice. The Pens couldn't lift the puck and King Henrik smothered them in tight.

Overall the playoffs have shown some surprises.
The most surprising to me is Tampa Bay. That Johnson-Kucherov line with Killorn on it is potent. Very much like they were last season in the playoffs. I have to think not having Stamkos will hurt them. Luckily this Detroit team is not great. I expected Datsyuk and Zetterberg to at least create some easy scoring opportunities. Thus far they are not. Credit to this Tampa team executing well.

The West is crazy. I look forward to tonight's LA-San Jose game...it will be a battle.

More to come...i'm out for now.

About last night... 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Night Two

Pretty offensive night to say the least.

Capitals vs Flyers - One:
Washington wins 2 - 0
Washington lead series 1 - 0
Washington looked good in this game. Philadelphia had moments as well but really didn't get many good shots on Braden Holtby. The first period the Flyers had Washington just trying to catch up and they drew a few penalties as a result. The second and third periods were played more in Washington's pace than Philly's. If this continues, the Caps stand a good chance to win not only this series, but the entire East. Philly has positives to build on - Gostisbehere is such a good puck-mover and if they stay patient and wait on Washington to over-commit, the rush will be there for good transition goals. Washington looked mostly in control, though.

Islanders vs Panthers - One:
New York wins 5 - 4
New York leads series 1 - 0
This series should go seven. Both teams will get goals. Both teams have weaknesses. I think, the Isles look more susceptible to breaking down in their own zone, but they also look more able to exploit neutral zone transitions into the offensive zone. Florida needs Barkov to score. He and Jagr looked good and almost got the tying goal in the final minute or so of play. But almost isn't good enough for this line. The Isles top players got a couple. Tonight it could be Florida's top unit doing it. There are plenty of chances at both ends.

Stars vs Wild - One:
Dallas wins 4 - 0
Dallas leads series 1 - 0
The Stars are just too much for this wounded Minnesota team. I don't think Parise would help that much, even though he adds leadership and toughness. The Stars are just too much in every area. As long as the Stars don't get one-dimensional and cease to focus on their end or something, they have this series, maybe a sweep...probably a sweep - maybe all shutouts!

Kings vs Sharks - One:
San Jose wins 4 - 3
San Jose leads series 1 - 0
San Jose controlled the pace in this one. It wasn't domination by any stretch and this series should go seven - fans of hockey sure hope so. There were plays at both ends, guys stepping up. Joe Pavelski looks focused - he had a great game. Anze Kopitar wasn't a huge factor last night but I am sure he will be seen more. Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin moved the puck well. San Jose's team speed was impressive and the addition of Joel Ward has already made an impact. This is not a roll-over and die Sharks team of the past. Los Angeles won't be coming back if they get down 3 - 0 in the series (as they did a couple of years ago to the Sharks)

The goals and the goalies - Night two

Braden Holtby - 0 goals on 19 shots
no softies

Steve Mason - 2 goals on 31 shots
1st - John Carlson powerplay goal. Shot from the point, through two d-men, with a deflection and a bounce. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Jay Beagle places a beauty, high under the crossbar off an easy pass from Marcus Johansen who made a great neutral zone play against Jakob Voracek. NO CHANCE.
no softies

Thomas Greiss - 4 goals on 46 shots
1st - Teddy Purcell with a deflection. Great outlet pass by Dmitri Kulikov to Jiri Hudler who gives a perfect pass to Purcell. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Jussi Jokinen deflects the puck in the slot off a shot by Brian Campbell from the point. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Reilly Smith puts a great shot high, roofing the puck following a shot by Alex Petrovic that rebounds off the boards behnd the goal. NO CHANCE.
4th - Reilly Smith with a sweet, quick wrister, high, deflecting off Greiss's blocker. A+ Chance. (really NO CHANCE but it did hit is blocker so there is possible reason to think he COULD save it)
no softies

Roberto Luongo - 5 goals on 26 shots
1st - Brock Nelson with a sweet shot, high and on the post. Neutral zone turnover, Ryan Strome makes the pass that puts Nelson in alone. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Frans Neilsen makes a beautiful top shelf shot. John Tavares makes a nice play to get in the zone, creating a two-on-one. NO CHANCE.
3rd - John Tavares puts a shot low to the near side post off a quick cross-ice pass by Kyle Okposo. A+ Chance (maybe a Jonathan Quick/Mike Richter makes the post to post move on this - doubtful)
4th - Kyle Okposo buries it high in the corner off a pass from John Tavares who made a great steal to the goalies right. NO CHANCE.
5th - Ryan Strome finishes a rebound from a shot by Alan Quine who made a nice deke move. B+ first shot, NO CHANCE on the rebound.
no sofites

Kari Lehtonen - 0 goals on 22 shots
no softies

Devan Dubnyk - 3 goals on 31 shots
1st - Radek Faksa blazes a wrister to the top corner. Ales Hemsky makes a neutral zone steal and sets Faksa up with an easy one. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Jason Spezza with a nasty deke to wrister - top corner. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Patrick Eaves on the powerplay puts the shot over Dubnyk's stretched left pad off the rebound from Jamie Benn's screened shot. C chance saved then NO CHANCE.
no softies

Jonathan Quick - 4 goals on 23 shots
1st - Joe Pavelski lasers a one-timer to the far post on this powerplay goal (think Alex Ovechkin style). NO CHANCE.
2nd - Brent Burns off a face-off win wicked wrister to the near post. Slightly screened. NO CHANCE
3rd - Tomas Hertl pots it five-hole after a scramble in front of the net and on a bouncing puck. NO CHANCE. (could argue that Quick was moving too much - but it was a scramble, he could only guess)
4th - Joe Pavelski goes far-side post after a nice move from behind the net on Anze Kopitar. NO CHANCE (this is at worst an A+ only because the shot was on the ice - thus theoretically savable)
no softies

Martin Jones - 3 goals on 24 shots
1st - Jake Muzzin deflects one off a San Jose defender after pulling Martin Jones out of the net. NO CHANCE. (perhaps Martin shouldn't have been so aggressive out on Muzzin but many goalies do the same - he took the shot away, for sure)
2nd - Jeff Carter from behind the goal line makes a pass that gets deflected off a San Jose player into the net. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Trevor Lewis makes a rush down the ice, beats a retreating defenseman, and places a sick wrister high and near the post. NO CHANCE.
no softies

The goals and the goalies...

Tim Howard - 3 goals on 34 shots.
1st - Nikita Kucherov blast off a 3 on 2. Pass coming across. Placement near perfect. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Nikita Kucherov. Busted clearing attempt by Detroit (pucks goes out but quickly transitioned back into zone). Kucherov in front of the net, pass from behind by Braden Coburn. Howard makes initial save, no defense to clear the close rebound. Kucherov jams it back in. Initial chance an A+, rebound B.
3rd - Alex Killorn deflection placed well from a pass in the corner. NO CHANCE.
no softies

Ben Bishop - 2 goals on 36 shots
1st - Mike Green with a nice hard shot from far - deflects early off d-man's stick. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Justin Abdelkader with a sweet tip in from a high, harmless looking shot. NO CHANCE.
no softies

Henrik Lundqvist - 1 goal on 11 shots
1st - Patric Hornqvist puts in a soft shot on the ice. Lundqvist is transitioning from the post after deflecting a pass from the corner. B- Chance. (many let that in but many make that save too - Lundqvist included)
no softies

Antii Raanta - 3 goals on 19 shots
1st - Sidney Crosby breakaway. Top corner. Sidney. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Tom Kuhnhackl off a nice pass on a 2-on-1 slow breakaway. Tight to the post and a good foot off the ice. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Patric Hornqvist from a pass by Sidney Crosby off of Phil Kessel's butt. Raanta followed the pass and then lost the puck, which Hornqvist tapped in. if not NO CHANCE, still an A+ opportunity.
no softies

Jeff Zatkoff - 2 goals on 37 shots
1st - Derek Stepan tight to the near post (far from Zatkoff) off a sweet pass from Rick Nash. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Derek Stepan on a rebound off a crafty little shot by Dan Boyle. Boyle's shot was not very controllable by the goalie because of how Boyle released it - must save, though. Stepan's shot - NO CHANCE.
no softies

Brian Elliott - 0 goals on 35 shots
no softies

Corey Crawford - 1 goal on 18 shots
1st - David Backes gets a deflection off of Trevor van Riemsdyk's stick. NO CHANCE.
no softies

About last night... 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Night One

Three games from last night. I actually watched most of all of them. Quick overview: Tampa was fast, Detroit's own zone looked lost at times; Rangers lots of weak shooting, Pens capitalized on opportunities; St. Louis looks ready, Chicago is still Chicago.

All three look to be entertaining series.

Red Wings vs Lightning - One:
Tampa Bay wins 3 - 2
Tampa Bay lead series 1 - 0
Tampa Bay impressed me with their jump on the puck - they were fast. Datsyuk never had much space. Zetterberg also, had none. The Lightning weren't dominant, though, and both teams controlled the puck in moments. Detroit will have to tighten up against Tampa's zone entries - when they gave space, the Lightning had opportunities. This should be a tight series. It will be interesting to see how Detroit adjusts to get space and time for their big names. Kucherov's first goal was a sweet blast to the top corner.

Rangers vs Penguins - One:
Pittsburgh wins 5 - 2
Pittsburgh lead series 1 - 0
The Rangers played the first period pretty solid. A late goal by the Pens hurt. I'd have to watch again, but I feel like the Rangers generated very few good scoring opportunities. They gave up huge ones. The Pens are playing confidently - they played virtually no-risk hockey and jumped up when they had openings, which the Rangers gave them plenty. Lundqvist went out after the first - he got popped in the eye by the stick of Marc Staal, a very odd situation to say the least. Raanta played well as the backup - none of the goals were certain saves. Nash made a great pass on Stepan's first goal. The Rangers will need big games by someone every night, if they expect to win any against this Pens team.

Blackhawks vs Blues - One:
St. Louis win 1 - 0 in first OT
St. Louis lead series 1 - 0
This is playoff hockey at its best. Who needs goal-scoring!? Both sides had good chances. Brian Elliot, goalie for the Blues, said it well - the goalies played patiently, making the shooters decide where to put the puck first. This is usually a best case scenario for a team - when the goalies play patient and positional - the skaters just keep shot quality down and the goalies don't make guesses. St. Louis had good control and kept Kane and Toews contained mostly. Panarin had a great chance in the third (I think) but Elliot was solid on it and the shot hit him in the shoulder. Chicago didn't have Duncan Keith.

For another perspective...

Give this a look:
"eye-test" vs analytics

It is interesting. I think the eye-test is still being Analyticalized. I mean, if you asked me to rate a team on those four pieces and then use those ratings in an algorithm based on how important I thought those pieces are...well, that is analysis. The eye-test would be to also ask me who I thought was a better team at the end of the season. But still a cool way to use opinions.

I find that many experts only watch their team. So even the eye-test falters here. There should also be a weight on "How many times have you seen this team play?"

My eye-test ended with the same two teams the analytics ended with...just sayin'.

Playoff Preview - just in the nick of time, eh!

Work always gets in the way.

I had good intentions of going through each team and saying what it will take for them to get to the finals. I wanted to go through team stats and weigh their recent play. This is the toughest Stanley Cup playoff to call in a while. No one stands out as an easy favorite - EVERY team has shown areas of weakness, which means matchups are key. There is a lot of data out there and a lot of good analysis. Despite my negative feelings for a lot of the new analytics, I do like the data. The analytics/conclusions are puffed up, but the data is interesting. Especially situational breakdowns of shots and goals.

Welp, damn work gets in the way. So, as a consolation, i'm just gonna give my gut feelings on each team and then try to watch every game I can.

Starting tonight! The real season begins - first team to 16 wins.

Weighing the Season

Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Chicago, St Louis and San Jose

These teams all put in good streaks at different times in the season. So when these guys are healthy, play their game, and play it well - they beat anyone (except each other, right! Nice thing in the playoffs - someone HAS TO win)

If every team plays to their potential, I can't see anyone outplaying the Caps on both ends of the ice. Push the puck on these guys and they are going to get easy goals. Next are the Pens and the Ducks and St Louis is right there too. The Caps, though, have not played that solid since around the trade deadline.

Pittsburgh is the hottest team and the offensive system is overwhelming. Anaheim is close but better balanced and St Louis brings the most depth overall though without any proven playoff performers.

The Kings might be the most difficult to play against, but the offense is not the focus of this group - which is fine if they control their end as they have in the past.

Dallas has the weakest defense and is probably the most top-heavy team. They will have to get scoring form other lines than their numero uno with Jamie Benn.

San Jose is certainly talented. Logan Couture will have to be a force and Joel Ward will have to at least be noticed.

Weighing History

Los Angeles, Chicago, Anaheim, and Pittsburgh

These are the only ones to have gotten the 16 Ws in the past decade or so. Each team still has some or even a lot of those Cup team cores. And I can see scenarios where any of them win the Cup. Pittsburgh has the easiest road to the finals.

(Detroit has some of the core that won the Cup in '08, but Nicklas Lidstrom was a huge piece and not replaced really. So I am not including them and not giving them a lot of chance)

Washington, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Jose

The other side of the story - History has not smiled on these organizations. Washington looks very much like the choke-type team history has painted them to be. They finished the season with maybe only one or two dominant showings. Dallas is similar although they seemed to tighten up in the right way the last three weeks or so - going 9-2-0 to close the season. St Louis has to have someone stand up for them - unless Hitchcock can pull off what the Bruins did a fews seasons ago - roll 4 lines, control the defensive zone and transition efficiently (if so, one of their two goalies will have an awesome run - think Conn Smythe). San Jose can play but they never beat the tougher, grittier teams - this version is different - Burns, Couture and Joel Ward are tough and Joe Pavelski has the right mental attitude.

Philadelphia and both New York teams

These three teams don't win the cup regularly, but they have ruined better teams' chances often. I don't see the Rangers pulling that off this season, but Philly and the Isles certainly can.

Weighing the Teams (according to how it "SHOULD" go)
The first eight out...
New York Rangers - this Ranger team is limping. And even when they are healthy and playing well, they lack some of the things they were able to do in the previous years. Their defense is showing holes and they aren't able to keep the puck in the offensive zone as they have in the last few season. They have to have a hot hand - someone that is putting the puck in unsavable spots efficiently. That is where they got most of their wins this season and they will have to do it to go far. Further, the Pens are the worst possible first round matchup.

Philadelphia - This is actually my dark horse pick. They are tough and talented and with Gostisbehere solidifying that defense - they don't get stuck in their end as often. Still, its hard for me to imagine the Flyers getting past the Pens, if they do beat the Caps.

Tampa Bay - No Stamkos - No Cup...probably no second round. This is a resilient team and they are quick. Detroit could be the right matchup for them in the first round. Hedman and Stralman will keep them in games, but without Stamkos, it will be even harder to get the timely easy goals.

New York Islanders - I don't respect this team as much as I do the Flyers. They are very similar but I the Isles give up more quality chances. Still, they can beat Florida and if so they get in the conference finals. But that is as far as I can see them going.

Minnesota - the Wild have never really put much together this year. They have some solid players and depth. But really, are their forwards much better than Ottawa's? This team is going to have to get scoring the older guys to get by Dallas. If Devan Dubnyk G and that defense can protect the net Dallas is susceptible to giving up goals in bunches, and Minnesota may sneak into the second round. I don't think so.

Chicago - Don't get me wrong, the Blackhawks could win it all. But I think if St. Louis plays that game they can play with depth, Chicago won't be able to keep up. I think we will see Darling enter at least one game. That said, Kane has as sweet a set of hands as anyone in the game and his back-hander is vicious. Toews can carry things efficiently at both ends. Keith and Seabrook can log large minutes. Coach Q has ridden these boys into the finals before, so St. Louis has no easy task.

Nashville - I like this team and want to pull for them. But they will have to show something they haven't in order to get past Anaheim. Their only hope will be Weber putting in a lot of minutes and Johansen or Neal getting playoff Jeff Carter-like finishing skills. Forsberg is playing great and the third line will have to be on their game.

San Jose - The Sharks could represent the west in the Finals. COULD. They are definitely tougher than they have ever been. They have top-end talent. They have speedy youngsters. Their defensemen are underrated a bit. They have to get on the Kings early and they can't get soft with them. I am always suspect of Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton being physical-ed out of the games.

The next four to go...
Detroit - The Red Wings are in their 24th straight playoff, it's impressive. The down-side though, they have no top-tier youngster from the draft. Don't get me wrong, Detroit's later round picks have been consistently good and thus they continue to compete. Their aging wonders, Zetterberg and Datsyuk could get them past Florida, if they do get by the Isles. Detroit is a solid team.

Dallas - Dallas can't keep the puck out of their net. And I think St. Louis will be able to stifle their offense enough. If Seguin comes back and he and Benn turn it on as they started the season, they can get to the finals. But in a seven game series, that Dallas defense/system might be exposed too much and exploited too often for the offense to overcome.

Washington - The Caps are in a tough spot. Philadelphia will not be easy for them. And then to have to beat a very cohesive Pittsburgh team. Washington has to play like they did in the beginning of the season ...or like they would later in the season AFTER giving up early goals. They can't give up the early goals. They can beat the Pens, but the way the two teams were playing at season's end, I don't feel confident. If they beat the Flyers in the first round...I may change my mind.

Anaheim - Los Angeles and Chicago just have the personnel and style to keep this very good team out of the finals. Anaheim will have to counter and respond to Los Angeles' goals. They can't win if they let LA play with leads. Anaheim wins this round and I think they win the Cup.

The last two going home...
Florida - It will be a great story if they get this far - Jagr will have to be a major part of their successes. Overall, I think the Panthers are too similar to the Predators. Not deep enough, too many holes, but some solid players and well coached. It should be an easy road into the conference finals, but the Pens will just be too much for them. Florida will have to close the gaps in their end better than they have all season. If Barkov steps up and someone scores other than Jagr - Huberdeau and Bjugstad for example, they have a chance.

St. Louis - It will be tragic to see this team once again come so close and not get to the finals. St. Louis has the pieces and truly it will be as close as just Alexander Steen having a hot series or Jaden Schwartz or Paul Stastny...or Shattenkirk. This team can do it...but, I have to lean on history.

The runner-up...
Pittsburgh - I think the Kings (and a lot of the west teams) will just make it too difficult for the Pens to score. If Malkin comes back and the Pens prove to have two high-efficiency lines, things change. They will have to play tough in order to continually break through against the Kings.

Stanley Cup Champs.
Los Angeles Kings - The Kings have everything. The biggest issue will be not coming out strong in the first round. This team can be beaten. They aren't as deep as they have been in the other Cup runs. This means guys like Vincent Lecavalier needs to be noticeable and Lucic will be a force and Carter or Toffoli will get hot a couple of games. Kopitar and Doughty will have to make it tough and there can't be any holes in the bottom 3 d-men's games.

I'm not guaranteeing any of this, but if every team plays to their potential, this is how it should fall out.

I think there are 7 legit teams - LA, Washington, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, St Louis, Chicago and San Jose. Philadelphia is my surprise pick. Dallas could, but that would surprise me a lot, I just don't believe in their team defense.

I can't wait for the puck(s) to drop!

PDO, Corsi, the Eye-Test and the New York Rangers

Here is an article from BlueshirtBanter about a way to fix the Rangers and give hope to their Playoff chances.

It's a long article with a bunch of New Stat fluff.
PDO - simply add a team's shooting percentage at even strength to their save percentage at even strength. This supposedly shows how LUCKY/UNLUCKY your team is.

This is wrong. It truly removes the idea that a team and a player in particular sets up genuinely higher quality chances in a given moment. These moments are usually not relying on LUCK at all. It is a targeted, skilled play. And in most goal events, that is the case - the players had clear intention and clear execution.

Go look at Buffalo's second goal against the Rangers, Eichel to O'Reilly. It was a sweet pass and perfect finish. No goalie saves that. No luck involved. Eichel forces Antti Raanta to stay on the post. O'Reilly finishes with a quick shot - it actually should have been placed closer to the post...but the speed still makes it basically unsavable.

Is there luck in sports? Of course. But the reason the guys that are on the ice/field/court/whatever is that they rely less on luck and more on skill.

Is there luck in hockey? Again, of course. And especially for the goalies. These guys are basically guessing where the bullet is going without any time to really watch it go by or hit them. Goalies are relying on good positioning and bad shooting more than anything else. But again, the goalies that are in the NHL are relying less on luck than on good positioning - the only real thing a goalie controls.

Corsi - also simple, this is the percentage of even-strength shots your team took out of both teams' even-strength shots.

The idea is that Corsi can give an indication of who controls the puck the most by assuming the team with the most shots had the most puck control.

Again, a very weak assumption. Not to mention, the team that can create a shot that goes in the goal has better puck control than a team that just takes shots.

Don't get me wrong, in most cases and especially when there is a dominant team, shot counts will usually reflect the domination. But it is far from clearing up the story of what happened on the ice.

Ultimately, I think the point of the article is two-fold.
 - the Rangers need to be lucky! (in other words, put more pucks in the net on fewer shots)
 - the Rangers need to not use the guys that have bad Corsi scores (meaning that while player A is on the ice, the team should get more shots for than against.) This is mainly a knock on Dan Girardi and Marc Staal.

But really, it doesn't say much. How do you get luckier? I don't know and I would assume no one knows...luck is just that, uncontrollable. So no action required to achieve this, I guess.

As for Dan Girardi and Marc Staal, again that isn't an answer. What has changed in their games this year? If nothing, then how were these two such able parts of the past few seasons when the Rangers were able to lock teams down in the third period? I think both have the skillsets to be effective. My hope is that come playoffs, they will lock their games down and return to keep it simple in their own end and keep getting in the way of clean shot attempts.

And as a point about this Corsi stat thing being misunderstood fluff - Dan Girardi is the worst Ranger on the team for Corsi...but his +/- (which is goal differential at even-strength) is top 3 for defenseman (top 3 overall). So I guess he is just really lucky? If so, then maybe we need him on the ice more?

I just get annoyed at this type of dumb analysis.