Playoff Preview - just in the nick of time, eh!

Work always gets in the way.

I had good intentions of going through each team and saying what it will take for them to get to the finals. I wanted to go through team stats and weigh their recent play. This is the toughest Stanley Cup playoff to call in a while. No one stands out as an easy favorite - EVERY team has shown areas of weakness, which means matchups are key. There is a lot of data out there and a lot of good analysis. Despite my negative feelings for a lot of the new analytics, I do like the data. The analytics/conclusions are puffed up, but the data is interesting. Especially situational breakdowns of shots and goals.

Welp, damn work gets in the way. So, as a consolation, i'm just gonna give my gut feelings on each team and then try to watch every game I can.

Starting tonight! The real season begins - first team to 16 wins.

Weighing the Season

Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Chicago, St Louis and San Jose

These teams all put in good streaks at different times in the season. So when these guys are healthy, play their game, and play it well - they beat anyone (except each other, right! Nice thing in the playoffs - someone HAS TO win)

If every team plays to their potential, I can't see anyone outplaying the Caps on both ends of the ice. Push the puck on these guys and they are going to get easy goals. Next are the Pens and the Ducks and St Louis is right there too. The Caps, though, have not played that solid since around the trade deadline.

Pittsburgh is the hottest team and the offensive system is overwhelming. Anaheim is close but better balanced and St Louis brings the most depth overall though without any proven playoff performers.

The Kings might be the most difficult to play against, but the offense is not the focus of this group - which is fine if they control their end as they have in the past.

Dallas has the weakest defense and is probably the most top-heavy team. They will have to get scoring form other lines than their numero uno with Jamie Benn.

San Jose is certainly talented. Logan Couture will have to be a force and Joel Ward will have to at least be noticed.

Weighing History

Los Angeles, Chicago, Anaheim, and Pittsburgh

These are the only ones to have gotten the 16 Ws in the past decade or so. Each team still has some or even a lot of those Cup team cores. And I can see scenarios where any of them win the Cup. Pittsburgh has the easiest road to the finals.

(Detroit has some of the core that won the Cup in '08, but Nicklas Lidstrom was a huge piece and not replaced really. So I am not including them and not giving them a lot of chance)

Washington, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Jose

The other side of the story - History has not smiled on these organizations. Washington looks very much like the choke-type team history has painted them to be. They finished the season with maybe only one or two dominant showings. Dallas is similar although they seemed to tighten up in the right way the last three weeks or so - going 9-2-0 to close the season. St Louis has to have someone stand up for them - unless Hitchcock can pull off what the Bruins did a fews seasons ago - roll 4 lines, control the defensive zone and transition efficiently (if so, one of their two goalies will have an awesome run - think Conn Smythe). San Jose can play but they never beat the tougher, grittier teams - this version is different - Burns, Couture and Joel Ward are tough and Joe Pavelski has the right mental attitude.

Philadelphia and both New York teams

These three teams don't win the cup regularly, but they have ruined better teams' chances often. I don't see the Rangers pulling that off this season, but Philly and the Isles certainly can.

Weighing the Teams (according to how it "SHOULD" go)
The first eight out...
New York Rangers - this Ranger team is limping. And even when they are healthy and playing well, they lack some of the things they were able to do in the previous years. Their defense is showing holes and they aren't able to keep the puck in the offensive zone as they have in the last few season. They have to have a hot hand - someone that is putting the puck in unsavable spots efficiently. That is where they got most of their wins this season and they will have to do it to go far. Further, the Pens are the worst possible first round matchup.

Philadelphia - This is actually my dark horse pick. They are tough and talented and with Gostisbehere solidifying that defense - they don't get stuck in their end as often. Still, its hard for me to imagine the Flyers getting past the Pens, if they do beat the Caps.

Tampa Bay - No Stamkos - No Cup...probably no second round. This is a resilient team and they are quick. Detroit could be the right matchup for them in the first round. Hedman and Stralman will keep them in games, but without Stamkos, it will be even harder to get the timely easy goals.

New York Islanders - I don't respect this team as much as I do the Flyers. They are very similar but I the Isles give up more quality chances. Still, they can beat Florida and if so they get in the conference finals. But that is as far as I can see them going.

Minnesota - the Wild have never really put much together this year. They have some solid players and depth. But really, are their forwards much better than Ottawa's? This team is going to have to get scoring the older guys to get by Dallas. If Devan Dubnyk G and that defense can protect the net Dallas is susceptible to giving up goals in bunches, and Minnesota may sneak into the second round. I don't think so.

Chicago - Don't get me wrong, the Blackhawks could win it all. But I think if St. Louis plays that game they can play with depth, Chicago won't be able to keep up. I think we will see Darling enter at least one game. That said, Kane has as sweet a set of hands as anyone in the game and his back-hander is vicious. Toews can carry things efficiently at both ends. Keith and Seabrook can log large minutes. Coach Q has ridden these boys into the finals before, so St. Louis has no easy task.

Nashville - I like this team and want to pull for them. But they will have to show something they haven't in order to get past Anaheim. Their only hope will be Weber putting in a lot of minutes and Johansen or Neal getting playoff Jeff Carter-like finishing skills. Forsberg is playing great and the third line will have to be on their game.

San Jose - The Sharks could represent the west in the Finals. COULD. They are definitely tougher than they have ever been. They have top-end talent. They have speedy youngsters. Their defensemen are underrated a bit. They have to get on the Kings early and they can't get soft with them. I am always suspect of Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton being physical-ed out of the games.

The next four to go...
Detroit - The Red Wings are in their 24th straight playoff, it's impressive. The down-side though, they have no top-tier youngster from the draft. Don't get me wrong, Detroit's later round picks have been consistently good and thus they continue to compete. Their aging wonders, Zetterberg and Datsyuk could get them past Florida, if they do get by the Isles. Detroit is a solid team.

Dallas - Dallas can't keep the puck out of their net. And I think St. Louis will be able to stifle their offense enough. If Seguin comes back and he and Benn turn it on as they started the season, they can get to the finals. But in a seven game series, that Dallas defense/system might be exposed too much and exploited too often for the offense to overcome.

Washington - The Caps are in a tough spot. Philadelphia will not be easy for them. And then to have to beat a very cohesive Pittsburgh team. Washington has to play like they did in the beginning of the season ...or like they would later in the season AFTER giving up early goals. They can't give up the early goals. They can beat the Pens, but the way the two teams were playing at season's end, I don't feel confident. If they beat the Flyers in the first round...I may change my mind.

Anaheim - Los Angeles and Chicago just have the personnel and style to keep this very good team out of the finals. Anaheim will have to counter and respond to Los Angeles' goals. They can't win if they let LA play with leads. Anaheim wins this round and I think they win the Cup.

The last two going home...
Florida - It will be a great story if they get this far - Jagr will have to be a major part of their successes. Overall, I think the Panthers are too similar to the Predators. Not deep enough, too many holes, but some solid players and well coached. It should be an easy road into the conference finals, but the Pens will just be too much for them. Florida will have to close the gaps in their end better than they have all season. If Barkov steps up and someone scores other than Jagr - Huberdeau and Bjugstad for example, they have a chance.

St. Louis - It will be tragic to see this team once again come so close and not get to the finals. St. Louis has the pieces and truly it will be as close as just Alexander Steen having a hot series or Jaden Schwartz or Paul Stastny...or Shattenkirk. This team can do it...but, I have to lean on history.

The runner-up...
Pittsburgh - I think the Kings (and a lot of the west teams) will just make it too difficult for the Pens to score. If Malkin comes back and the Pens prove to have two high-efficiency lines, things change. They will have to play tough in order to continually break through against the Kings.

Stanley Cup Champs.
Los Angeles Kings - The Kings have everything. The biggest issue will be not coming out strong in the first round. This team can be beaten. They aren't as deep as they have been in the other Cup runs. This means guys like Vincent Lecavalier needs to be noticeable and Lucic will be a force and Carter or Toffoli will get hot a couple of games. Kopitar and Doughty will have to make it tough and there can't be any holes in the bottom 3 d-men's games.

I'm not guaranteeing any of this, but if every team plays to their potential, this is how it should fall out.

I think there are 7 legit teams - LA, Washington, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, St Louis, Chicago and San Jose. Philadelphia is my surprise pick. Dallas could, but that would surprise me a lot, I just don't believe in their team defense.

I can't wait for the puck(s) to drop!