Shayne Gostisbehere is a new defenseman for the Philadelphia Flyers. He has been in the system and has more of history than just this partial season with the Flyers: read here for more.
The Flyers prior to Gostisbehere joining them were around 5-8-3. They were an up-and-down performing team, I think two of the wins were back-to-back shutouts by Michael Neuvirth. Many of the losses, the opponents scored 4 or more. With the forward depth they have, more was expected out of this team.
Enter Gostisbehere - not a better goalie nor has one goalie "stepped up" over the other. Mason and Neuvirth have been swapped plenty. And despite the wins increasing for the Flyers, to the point that they are now in control of their playoff destiny - tied with Detroit for the final playoff spot in the East with a game in hand over the Red Wings. But more importantly, they have been playing very good hockey. Going 31-16-10, 29 of the wins with Gostisbehere in the lineup.
First 16 games. 5 wins 13pts. Next 57 games - 31 wins 72pts.
Hockey is largely a system game. The game is played mostly in the space between the goals and in most cases the team that controls that space wins the game, regardless of the man in net. Philadelphia is showing to be a great example of this - add this smart, opportunistic mobile d-man and they are winning impressively. Goalies can change a moment but until shooters and playmakers get more credit for creating those moments and for failing those moments, I have to say Goalies are overrated.
Or maybe Shayne Gostisbehere is...it can't be both.
27 March 2016
The Ken Hitchcock system
Not sure if you are paying attention to the St. Louis Blues, but they have just put 4 shutout games together. Well, the credit goes to the goalie, right? The article will start with the goalie's name and then go on about how great he played and won the game for them. After the first three shutouts, that is exactly what was happening. Brian Elliott was geting all-world goalie praise..
The Blues coach, Ken Hitchcock, makes a bold move in the fourth game - he starts the other goalie. And this other goalie goes on to another Blues' shutout. And this shutout was against one of the best teams this season.
Hitchcock has throughout his career found goalies that get more shutouts with his teams than with others. And now he is doing it with two goalies.
Most likely it is the system that Hitchcock puts in place. They play tight positional defense with the forwards committed to own-zone coverages. And it has worked for the goalies everywhere he's gone.
This season Hitchcock has been using both of his goalies, Brian Elliott and Jake Allen. And both are putting up shutouts. For perspective, Ken Hitchcock's two goalies have 10 shutouts - Allen with 6 and Elliott with the other 4. Henrik Lundqvist, the New York Ranger's future Hall of Fame goalie only has 4 shutouts this season. Are both of these goalies really that much better than Lundqvist?
When goalies get praised for shutouts and the coach and his system go unmentioned, I have no choice but to say Goalie are Overrated.
The Blues coach, Ken Hitchcock, makes a bold move in the fourth game - he starts the other goalie. And this other goalie goes on to another Blues' shutout. And this shutout was against one of the best teams this season.
Hitchcock has throughout his career found goalies that get more shutouts with his teams than with others. And now he is doing it with two goalies.
Most likely it is the system that Hitchcock puts in place. They play tight positional defense with the forwards committed to own-zone coverages. And it has worked for the goalies everywhere he's gone.
This season Hitchcock has been using both of his goalies, Brian Elliott and Jake Allen. And both are putting up shutouts. For perspective, Ken Hitchcock's two goalies have 10 shutouts - Allen with 6 and Elliott with the other 4. Henrik Lundqvist, the New York Ranger's future Hall of Fame goalie only has 4 shutouts this season. Are both of these goalies really that much better than Lundqvist?
When goalies get praised for shutouts and the coach and his system go unmentioned, I have no choice but to say Goalie are Overrated.
23 March 2016
Experiences...my first, seeng Jack Eichel
I love hockey. For me, it has all the things that make sports great - finesse, speed, great hand-eye events, team work, strength and toughness. And it has those moments...the type of moments that stick in your mind for days or years...or just forever. And it culminates every season with a championship that leaves the winner not only jubilant for victory but also for thankfulness that it is over - the exhaustion, hidden by the focus on winning, finally allowed to surface and be felt.
Jack Eichel embodies all of this. I've watched him numerous times online and I see those moments. Potentially, in his future, I see ALL of those moments in him.
He has the Jonathan Toews-like skill of being n the right spot and able to finish it. He has sweet hands - think Mario Lemieux-type length being used in that Mario smooth way. He is big - think Rick Nash or Jaromir Jagr - ok, slightly smaller. And he has that other thing - that Gretzky-like awareness - that chess-like breakdown of the game allowing him to be steps ahead of the opposition and the play.
He's only 19. He is green but I can see where all he has now could put him in that small list of greats that have played this sport I love.
So it goes without saying, I had to see this kid play live.
My first impression was his size. He's only 6'2" - not huge. But his presence with the other players in the skate around was noticeable.
As a side-note: I had read somewhere in an interview of a teammate that Eichel brought a humor and lightness to the lockerroom and team n a positive way. In the warm up skate, I saw him joke around with Evander Kane in that very way - it was cool.
In this tilt, Eichel was lined with Sam Reinhart and Zemgus Girgensons, two other of the many Sabres' youngsters. (This team coached by Dan Bylsma has a bright future)
From the start, the Canes were effective at taking away space from this line. It lasted the entire game.
Eichel and company were able to generate a couple of opportunities but for the most part this line was not very effective offensively and worse defensively.
Eichel played well...for a 19 year old. His skating is so efficient, he almost looks like he isn't working. His movements are very smooth, like he wastes no motion. Offensively, he puts himself in spots that are ahead of the play. When he has the puck, he seems slow but the Canes' players seemed slower - his subtle moves aren't slow, just efficient and smooth; the defense is kept guessing, almost frozen.
On two occasions, Eichel, with the puck, made rushes to the net. On one it was from goalie Cam Ward's left, the defenseman on the inside, Eichel moving from the outside in. The other was from Ward's right and similar. Neither rush amounted to much, but Eichel's deceptive speed was threatening and his strength on the puck obvious - this reminded me of a young Rick Nash.
A few other times Eichel actually controlled the puck in the Canes' zone were unproductive but not without skill. Again subtle stick-handling allowed Eichel to put passes into dangerous spots.
Eichel was fun to watch. And even though he didn't have a lot of chances - the Canes' played his line very well. - he still stood out. His play awareness is special and I look forward to watching him develop in this league.
The one catch - either he is far ahead of the game or his own zone play leaves a lot to be desired. On multiple occasions he seemed out of place or uncommitted - or perhaps just committed to offense, making himself ready to turn it the other way. Regardless, the Canes were able to control the puck with his line on the ice - often creating decent chances.
Overall, if Eichel never improves on his own-zone play, this kid will be fun to watch for years. If he does improve, as most greats do, he has a chance to be the greatest of his era. Well, if Connor McDavid lets him.
Jack Eichel embodies all of this. I've watched him numerous times online and I see those moments. Potentially, in his future, I see ALL of those moments in him.
He has the Jonathan Toews-like skill of being n the right spot and able to finish it. He has sweet hands - think Mario Lemieux-type length being used in that Mario smooth way. He is big - think Rick Nash or Jaromir Jagr - ok, slightly smaller. And he has that other thing - that Gretzky-like awareness - that chess-like breakdown of the game allowing him to be steps ahead of the opposition and the play.
He's only 19. He is green but I can see where all he has now could put him in that small list of greats that have played this sport I love.
So it goes without saying, I had to see this kid play live.
My first impression was his size. He's only 6'2" - not huge. But his presence with the other players in the skate around was noticeable.
As a side-note: I had read somewhere in an interview of a teammate that Eichel brought a humor and lightness to the lockerroom and team n a positive way. In the warm up skate, I saw him joke around with Evander Kane in that very way - it was cool.
In this tilt, Eichel was lined with Sam Reinhart and Zemgus Girgensons, two other of the many Sabres' youngsters. (This team coached by Dan Bylsma has a bright future)
From the start, the Canes were effective at taking away space from this line. It lasted the entire game.
Eichel and company were able to generate a couple of opportunities but for the most part this line was not very effective offensively and worse defensively.
Eichel played well...for a 19 year old. His skating is so efficient, he almost looks like he isn't working. His movements are very smooth, like he wastes no motion. Offensively, he puts himself in spots that are ahead of the play. When he has the puck, he seems slow but the Canes' players seemed slower - his subtle moves aren't slow, just efficient and smooth; the defense is kept guessing, almost frozen.
On two occasions, Eichel, with the puck, made rushes to the net. On one it was from goalie Cam Ward's left, the defenseman on the inside, Eichel moving from the outside in. The other was from Ward's right and similar. Neither rush amounted to much, but Eichel's deceptive speed was threatening and his strength on the puck obvious - this reminded me of a young Rick Nash.
A few other times Eichel actually controlled the puck in the Canes' zone were unproductive but not without skill. Again subtle stick-handling allowed Eichel to put passes into dangerous spots.
Eichel was fun to watch. And even though he didn't have a lot of chances - the Canes' played his line very well. - he still stood out. His play awareness is special and I look forward to watching him develop in this league.
The one catch - either he is far ahead of the game or his own zone play leaves a lot to be desired. On multiple occasions he seemed out of place or uncommitted - or perhaps just committed to offense, making himself ready to turn it the other way. Regardless, the Canes were able to control the puck with his line on the ice - often creating decent chances.
Overall, if Eichel never improves on his own-zone play, this kid will be fun to watch for years. If he does improve, as most greats do, he has a chance to be the greatest of his era. Well, if Connor McDavid lets him.
22 March 2016
Big Games on tap
We have some pivotal games tonight, but let's start with the most important game:
Buffalo at Carolina
That's right. It's important because me and my daughter will be there :) Other than that, it is less than meaningless - except for Jack Eichel.
St. Louis at San Jose
Both teams are battling for playoff seeds. Both teams are having an impressive March - Sharks are 7-3-0, Blues 6-2-0. True meaning of the game? Really only if both teams are playing hard, it will be a good indication of what to expect from them in the playoffs. St. Louis is deep and it will be interesting to see how San Jose does against a team like this, if they get down. The inverse is true as well, can San Jose keep St. Louis from notching a goal if they get a lead. So many players for both teams can make a difference.
Dallas at Chicago
These teams are not playing dominant hockey. Both have a shot at winning their divisions. They have opposite problems - one team can score, the other can eliminate scoring. Should be a fun game. Dallas is without Tyler Seguin - so it will be interesting to see who steps up - Jamie Benn can make anyone a bit better.
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Detroit is hanging on by the skin of their collective teeth...or maybe just the skin of Justin Abdelkader's. Philly wants them to lose. I know one Philly fan that probably wants them to win - because Philly probably won't do much in the playoffs and he wants better draft position. Regardless, Tampa Bay should be hungry for a win here - they need to start showing some consistency down the stretch as they gear up for the playoffs.
Los Angeles at Minnesota
This is for the wild what the above game is for Detroit. Gotta win this. It won't be easy against an LA team that is coming off a pretty ugly loss to Nashville last night. The Kings hadn't given up five goals in a game since February 11th - a loss to the Islanders. Remove Anaheim and NEW JERSEY from LA's schedule and they are 14-3-1 since the all-star break. New Jersey...it's weird, but matchups matter.
Anaheim, Washington, and Philadelphia have kinda "must-win" games. Can't win them all, but should!
Buffalo at Carolina
That's right. It's important because me and my daughter will be there :) Other than that, it is less than meaningless - except for Jack Eichel.
St. Louis at San Jose
Both teams are battling for playoff seeds. Both teams are having an impressive March - Sharks are 7-3-0, Blues 6-2-0. True meaning of the game? Really only if both teams are playing hard, it will be a good indication of what to expect from them in the playoffs. St. Louis is deep and it will be interesting to see how San Jose does against a team like this, if they get down. The inverse is true as well, can San Jose keep St. Louis from notching a goal if they get a lead. So many players for both teams can make a difference.
Dallas at Chicago
These teams are not playing dominant hockey. Both have a shot at winning their divisions. They have opposite problems - one team can score, the other can eliminate scoring. Should be a fun game. Dallas is without Tyler Seguin - so it will be interesting to see who steps up - Jamie Benn can make anyone a bit better.
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Detroit is hanging on by the skin of their collective teeth...or maybe just the skin of Justin Abdelkader's. Philly wants them to lose. I know one Philly fan that probably wants them to win - because Philly probably won't do much in the playoffs and he wants better draft position. Regardless, Tampa Bay should be hungry for a win here - they need to start showing some consistency down the stretch as they gear up for the playoffs.
Los Angeles at Minnesota
This is for the wild what the above game is for Detroit. Gotta win this. It won't be easy against an LA team that is coming off a pretty ugly loss to Nashville last night. The Kings hadn't given up five goals in a game since February 11th - a loss to the Islanders. Remove Anaheim and NEW JERSEY from LA's schedule and they are 14-3-1 since the all-star break. New Jersey...it's weird, but matchups matter.
Anaheim, Washington, and Philadelphia have kinda "must-win" games. Can't win them all, but should!
21 March 2016
The West: what remains...
Central
St. Louis: 9gms (5h 4a). 6 vs PO teams. 7-3-0 last 10. current points: 93. projected: 106
Dallas: 9gms (4h 5a). 7 vs PO teams. 5-3-2 last 10. current points: 95. projected: 105
Chicago: 9gms (4h 5a). 3 vs PO teams. 4-4-2 last 10. current points: 91. projected: 104
Pacific
Los Angeles: 11gms (5h 6a). 4 vs PO teams. 7-2-1 last 10. current points: 93. projected: 109
Anaheim: 11gms (4h 7a). 4 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 89. projected: 104
San Jose: 10gms (7h 3a). 4 vs PO teams. 7-3-0 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 102
Wildcard
Nashville: 10gms (7h 3a). 7 vs PO teams. 6-2-2 last 10. current points: 85. projected: 98
Colorado: 9gms (5h 4a). 7 vs PO teams. 6-4-0 last 10. current points: 80. projected: 91
in the hunt
Minnesota: 9gms (6h 3a). 5 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 79. projected: 91
* Jaden Schwartz has been great since coming back from injury - 3 goals and 11 points in the 8 games of March. But this team is getting scoring from all lines. Only three players are minus in March and that is only minus 2.
* Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza have been trying to lead the way in March. Benn's 10pts and Spezza's 8 goals lead the team in March's 9 games. When your top scorers are all minus players, though, something isn't right. Spezza's at +2 other than him, the top guys are hurting the team.
* Chicago's core guys are playing decent but still the entire is struggling to score. Patrick Kane's 3 goals and 7 points lead the team in their 9 March games.
* Los Angeles is playing that Cup style. Lead by Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter, the editions of Milan Lucic and Vincent Lecavalier keep the Kings difficult to defend. Kopitar's 12 points in 9 games and his 6 goals are leading the team.
* The Ducks are still playing their best hockey. Good timing. Ryan Getzlaf is nowhere close to leading in points and Corey Perry sits fourth in goals for March. Ryan Kesler has been leading the way in solid two-way play - 10 points in 10 games and plus 7. Jakob Silfverberg and Jamie McGinn are leading in goals with five a piece. This is a tough team.
* The Sharks are playing well. Joe Thornton - 10pts 7 assists - is making the passes as usual and Brent Burns - 5 goals and 11 points - is continuing to have magic from the blueline. Joe Pavelski also has 5 goals in the 10 games of March.
* James Neal is getting hot - 6 goals and 9 points in the 9 games of March. Overall, it is a full team effort. This is a deep team, but I don't think as deep as St. Louis.
* Colorado's Matt Dechene and Mikkel Boedker are somewhat productive on yet another team that is struggling to score. Gabriel Landeskog just returned from a three game suspension - he might be able to add more scoring.
* Minnesota has the streakiest scorers of any team in the league, except maybe Ottawa. Guys like Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter get points in bunches and then disappear. Niederreiter's 6 goals and 10 points have been important in March. The play of both Erik Haula and Matt Dumba has been just as integral. Minnesota has an easier schedule than Colorado and will have to play at least as good in order to make the playoffs.
St. Louis: 9gms (5h 4a). 6 vs PO teams. 7-3-0 last 10. current points: 93. projected: 106
Dallas: 9gms (4h 5a). 7 vs PO teams. 5-3-2 last 10. current points: 95. projected: 105
Chicago: 9gms (4h 5a). 3 vs PO teams. 4-4-2 last 10. current points: 91. projected: 104
Pacific
Los Angeles: 11gms (5h 6a). 4 vs PO teams. 7-2-1 last 10. current points: 93. projected: 109
Anaheim: 11gms (4h 7a). 4 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 89. projected: 104
San Jose: 10gms (7h 3a). 4 vs PO teams. 7-3-0 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 102
Wildcard
Nashville: 10gms (7h 3a). 7 vs PO teams. 6-2-2 last 10. current points: 85. projected: 98
Colorado: 9gms (5h 4a). 7 vs PO teams. 6-4-0 last 10. current points: 80. projected: 91
in the hunt
Minnesota: 9gms (6h 3a). 5 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 79. projected: 91
* Jaden Schwartz has been great since coming back from injury - 3 goals and 11 points in the 8 games of March. But this team is getting scoring from all lines. Only three players are minus in March and that is only minus 2.
* Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza have been trying to lead the way in March. Benn's 10pts and Spezza's 8 goals lead the team in March's 9 games. When your top scorers are all minus players, though, something isn't right. Spezza's at +2 other than him, the top guys are hurting the team.
* Chicago's core guys are playing decent but still the entire is struggling to score. Patrick Kane's 3 goals and 7 points lead the team in their 9 March games.
* Los Angeles is playing that Cup style. Lead by Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter, the editions of Milan Lucic and Vincent Lecavalier keep the Kings difficult to defend. Kopitar's 12 points in 9 games and his 6 goals are leading the team.
* The Ducks are still playing their best hockey. Good timing. Ryan Getzlaf is nowhere close to leading in points and Corey Perry sits fourth in goals for March. Ryan Kesler has been leading the way in solid two-way play - 10 points in 10 games and plus 7. Jakob Silfverberg and Jamie McGinn are leading in goals with five a piece. This is a tough team.
* The Sharks are playing well. Joe Thornton - 10pts 7 assists - is making the passes as usual and Brent Burns - 5 goals and 11 points - is continuing to have magic from the blueline. Joe Pavelski also has 5 goals in the 10 games of March.
* James Neal is getting hot - 6 goals and 9 points in the 9 games of March. Overall, it is a full team effort. This is a deep team, but I don't think as deep as St. Louis.
* Colorado's Matt Dechene and Mikkel Boedker are somewhat productive on yet another team that is struggling to score. Gabriel Landeskog just returned from a three game suspension - he might be able to add more scoring.
* Minnesota has the streakiest scorers of any team in the league, except maybe Ottawa. Guys like Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter get points in bunches and then disappear. Niederreiter's 6 goals and 10 points have been important in March. The play of both Erik Haula and Matt Dumba has been just as integral. Minnesota has an easier schedule than Colorado and will have to play at least as good in order to make the playoffs.
The East: What remains...
Metropolitan
Washington: 11gms (5h 6a). 6 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 107. projected: 122
Pittsburgh: 10gms (4h 6a). 5 vs PO teams. 8-2-0 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 103
New York Islanders: 12gms (8h 4a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-3-2 last 10. current points: 85. projected: 100
Atlantic
Florida: 10gms (4h 6a). 3 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 89. projected: 100
Tampa Bay: 10gms (6h 4a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 87. projected: 97
Boston: 9gms (4h 5a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 86. projected: 95
Wild cards
New York Rangers: 10gms (7h 3a). 6 vs PO teams. 4-4-2 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 99
Detroit: 10gms (5h 5a). 4 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 83. projected: 95
in the hunt
Philadelphia: 12gms (5h 7a). 6 vs PO teams. 7-2-1 last 10. current points: 80. projected: 94
* the Caps have gotten only 2 goals from Alexandre Ovechkin in their last 10. If he's injured, this bad. Otherwise, it may be a positive spin on the Caps getting those three loses.
* the Pens have been getting stellar production from Sidney Crosby. But Carl Hagelin is certainly helping things. Patric Hornqvist and Kris Letang are playing well too. If Evgeny Malkin returns from injury and only adds - this team could win the East in the playoffs.
* Rick Nash has done nothing in his 5 games back...and not much more for the season. Ugh. Ryan McDonagh is doing all he can. But this team needs scoring. For all the negative feelings on Dan Girardi he's not a negative plus/minus in March. Marc Staal, Dan Boyle and Keith Yandle are -4, -4, and -12 respectively. The Rangers are not getting goals without giving up easier chances for the opponents.
* Florida is getting production from a few different sources. Vincent Trochek and Jussi Jokinen are leading in March with 11 and 10 points respectively. They are similar to the Rangers though, when they go after goals, they often give up more.
* Tampa Bay is getting no scoring from the third and fourth lines - the top two lines are getting some scoring but it will take another line in there and Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman will have to step up too.
* Brad Marchand was on a tear, but he's 2 goals and 6points in the last 10 games. Patrice Bergeron has been consistent with 5g/8pts in this time. Zdeno Chara is still putting in big minutes but no scoring - showing signs of aging?
* the Isles are in a good position, but they will have to beat the lesser teams. Kyle Okposo has been the leader in goals and points with 4g and 9pts in the 10 games of March. John Tavares is playing well but only 6pts in these 10 games.
* Detroit is struggling to score. Justin Abdelkader is leading them with 7pts in March. No one has more than 3 goals in this stretch. The lack of depth and aging skilled players might have caught them. If Philly continues their strong run, Detroit is out of the playoffs.
* The Flyers have spread out the scoring. And at the same time they aren't letting a lot of easy goals by. Still I expect Claude Giroux to score more - only 5 pts in the 8 games of March. Regardless, things are going right for them. Wayne Simmonds and Sean Couturier keep make this team very tough to play against.
Washington: 11gms (5h 6a). 6 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 107. projected: 122
Pittsburgh: 10gms (4h 6a). 5 vs PO teams. 8-2-0 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 103
New York Islanders: 12gms (8h 4a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-3-2 last 10. current points: 85. projected: 100
Atlantic
Florida: 10gms (4h 6a). 3 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 89. projected: 100
Tampa Bay: 10gms (6h 4a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 87. projected: 97
Boston: 9gms (4h 5a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 86. projected: 95
Wild cards
New York Rangers: 10gms (7h 3a). 6 vs PO teams. 4-4-2 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 99
Detroit: 10gms (5h 5a). 4 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 83. projected: 95
in the hunt
Philadelphia: 12gms (5h 7a). 6 vs PO teams. 7-2-1 last 10. current points: 80. projected: 94
* the Caps have gotten only 2 goals from Alexandre Ovechkin in their last 10. If he's injured, this bad. Otherwise, it may be a positive spin on the Caps getting those three loses.
* the Pens have been getting stellar production from Sidney Crosby. But Carl Hagelin is certainly helping things. Patric Hornqvist and Kris Letang are playing well too. If Evgeny Malkin returns from injury and only adds - this team could win the East in the playoffs.
* Rick Nash has done nothing in his 5 games back...and not much more for the season. Ugh. Ryan McDonagh is doing all he can. But this team needs scoring. For all the negative feelings on Dan Girardi he's not a negative plus/minus in March. Marc Staal, Dan Boyle and Keith Yandle are -4, -4, and -12 respectively. The Rangers are not getting goals without giving up easier chances for the opponents.
* Florida is getting production from a few different sources. Vincent Trochek and Jussi Jokinen are leading in March with 11 and 10 points respectively. They are similar to the Rangers though, when they go after goals, they often give up more.
* Tampa Bay is getting no scoring from the third and fourth lines - the top two lines are getting some scoring but it will take another line in there and Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman will have to step up too.
* Brad Marchand was on a tear, but he's 2 goals and 6points in the last 10 games. Patrice Bergeron has been consistent with 5g/8pts in this time. Zdeno Chara is still putting in big minutes but no scoring - showing signs of aging?
* the Isles are in a good position, but they will have to beat the lesser teams. Kyle Okposo has been the leader in goals and points with 4g and 9pts in the 10 games of March. John Tavares is playing well but only 6pts in these 10 games.
* Detroit is struggling to score. Justin Abdelkader is leading them with 7pts in March. No one has more than 3 goals in this stretch. The lack of depth and aging skilled players might have caught them. If Philly continues their strong run, Detroit is out of the playoffs.
* The Flyers have spread out the scoring. And at the same time they aren't letting a lot of easy goals by. Still I expect Claude Giroux to score more - only 5 pts in the 8 games of March. Regardless, things are going right for them. Wayne Simmonds and Sean Couturier keep make this team very tough to play against.
Brendan Morrow.
Brendan Morrow.
Always respected the guy. He played heart-on all the time.
Read his retirement letter.
Great perspective on who these NHLers are.117goals and 72 assists in a 60 game season at 15 years old. He was a good NHLer, mainly a guy who provided jump and leadership in tight games. Cool to see he is just a big kid, even now.
*Great story on Marty Turco in there.
Always respected the guy. He played heart-on all the time.
Read his retirement letter.
Great perspective on who these NHLers are.117goals and 72 assists in a 60 game season at 15 years old. He was a good NHLer, mainly a guy who provided jump and leadership in tight games. Cool to see he is just a big kid, even now.
*Great story on Marty Turco in there.
20 March 2016
Time for a little update on the league...
We are coming into the final ten games of the season for each team. Some teams will play strong and carry that in to the playoffs. Some will take it easy and wake up in that first round. Some will battle for a better playoff spot only to get dusted in the opening series and go on to the golf course.
The West is full of teams putting it together late. The Kings, the Ducks, the Blues, the Predators, and the Sharks are all playing strong hockey. They all have that ability to generate a late goal when needed or if they get a lead, they can exploit the open attack from the other team. That is a good playoff combination and these teams are showing they have it. Ducks, Kings and Sharks are a notch above, I think. The Blues are deep and will have to win on four lines just making it too difficult for other teams' lesser lines. The Preds, I need to watch this team more.
Chicago and Dallas are on the other side of this - they seem to not get up in games and when they do they struggle against an opponent's constant pressure. Dallas troubles me more so than the Blackhawks, but the Blackhawks still will need to play better once the playoffs start.
Minnesota and Colorado are playing inspired hockey. I'm not positive which of these two is going to claim that final spot in the West. Both teams have holes - the Wild just aren't deep offensively; the Avalanche don't always play in their own end well.
The East is just ugly. Washington has been playing cooler than great since the All-star break. In February, they would give goals early and then claw back into the game for a win or at least a point. Lately, they are just not able to get back in a game without giving up another goal, or more. This doesn't bode well for the playoffs. Still, the team is talented and their defense is better than it has ever been. I think the Pens in the first round could kill them. Otherwise, if they get comfortable and win that first round, they should win the East.
Teams that bother me - Tampa Bay, Florida and the Islanders. They each have high-end talent. They have good defensemen and really no personnel issues. But they are missing something and lose to teams they shouldn't.
The Rangers and the Red Wings will have a tough time getting out of the first round.
Boston and Philly are interesting. Philly is playing hard and mostly solid. Boston is still hanging on to that core from years past, with a group of hard-working players around them. I can't see either of these getting past the second round...but they could upset someone in the first.
The Pens are the only team in the east playing like they are ready for the playoffs to start. They have six in a row after an impressive beating of the Capitals tonight (6-2 final). This is without Evgeny Malkin. The defense is still not great, but they are mobile and Trevor Daley is a question mark for me, he might be good enough for this Pens team. They only need a little better than they have had.
Now all of this said - the playoffs are a lot about match-ups. For instance, I think Pittsburgh vs Washington in the first round is bad for Washington. The Rangers against Tampa Bay or the Islanders is not good for the Rangers. But the Rangers might pull it off against Boston or Philly or Detroit and maybe even the Pens.
Anyway we'll see what the match-ups are soon enough, I guess.
The West is full of teams putting it together late. The Kings, the Ducks, the Blues, the Predators, and the Sharks are all playing strong hockey. They all have that ability to generate a late goal when needed or if they get a lead, they can exploit the open attack from the other team. That is a good playoff combination and these teams are showing they have it. Ducks, Kings and Sharks are a notch above, I think. The Blues are deep and will have to win on four lines just making it too difficult for other teams' lesser lines. The Preds, I need to watch this team more.
Chicago and Dallas are on the other side of this - they seem to not get up in games and when they do they struggle against an opponent's constant pressure. Dallas troubles me more so than the Blackhawks, but the Blackhawks still will need to play better once the playoffs start.
Minnesota and Colorado are playing inspired hockey. I'm not positive which of these two is going to claim that final spot in the West. Both teams have holes - the Wild just aren't deep offensively; the Avalanche don't always play in their own end well.
The East is just ugly. Washington has been playing cooler than great since the All-star break. In February, they would give goals early and then claw back into the game for a win or at least a point. Lately, they are just not able to get back in a game without giving up another goal, or more. This doesn't bode well for the playoffs. Still, the team is talented and their defense is better than it has ever been. I think the Pens in the first round could kill them. Otherwise, if they get comfortable and win that first round, they should win the East.
Teams that bother me - Tampa Bay, Florida and the Islanders. They each have high-end talent. They have good defensemen and really no personnel issues. But they are missing something and lose to teams they shouldn't.
The Rangers and the Red Wings will have a tough time getting out of the first round.
Boston and Philly are interesting. Philly is playing hard and mostly solid. Boston is still hanging on to that core from years past, with a group of hard-working players around them. I can't see either of these getting past the second round...but they could upset someone in the first.
The Pens are the only team in the east playing like they are ready for the playoffs to start. They have six in a row after an impressive beating of the Capitals tonight (6-2 final). This is without Evgeny Malkin. The defense is still not great, but they are mobile and Trevor Daley is a question mark for me, he might be good enough for this Pens team. They only need a little better than they have had.
Now all of this said - the playoffs are a lot about match-ups. For instance, I think Pittsburgh vs Washington in the first round is bad for Washington. The Rangers against Tampa Bay or the Islanders is not good for the Rangers. But the Rangers might pull it off against Boston or Philly or Detroit and maybe even the Pens.
Anyway we'll see what the match-ups are soon enough, I guess.
15 March 2016
Hockey without a goalie? Warriors closing in on the best regular season record EVER.
Another game means another win, if you are the Golden State Warriors. I don't follow enough basketball, but I will be watching the NBA playoffs. And I do follow Steph Curry and the general state of the NBA. And I do see something new coming out of this Curry-led Warriors style.
The Jordan..er...Chicago Bulls had a few dominant seasons and put up the best record ever, losing only 10 games in 1996 (ugh TWENT YEARS AGO!? feeling old here!). That's a 87.8% winning percentage. Against the best men of that era.
The Warriors are 60-6 after blowing the New Orleans Pelicans out last night. 60-6. That's better than 9 out of every 10 games...against the best players of this era. 90.9%. That means, this group shouldn't lose two more games. WOW. 75-7 potentially. Just unreal.
I don't know NBA basketball like I do hockey, but this is not a weak NBA. The talent level is high and spread out. There are a lot of teams with potential to play mighty good basketball. So for the Warriors to be leveling every team so consistently amazes me. This is a team that will change the way basketball is defended...or maybe rules get changed, who knows.
I get excited at where the game will be in five or ten years. In Jordan's wake came tons of athletic shooting guards and small forwards throwing the ball down with force or drawing men over and making the sweet pass for an easy bucket - expanding on Jordan in different ways.
What follows Curry!?
Will others be banging out threes as regularly? Bigger guys nailing the three and drawing defenses out? Using that space to go in with acrobatic huge dunks? Who knows!
Honestly, I won't be thinking about the future once the playoffs start. I'll be watching the NOW and enjoying it. Curry and the Warriors are fun to watch.
The Jordan..er...Chicago Bulls had a few dominant seasons and put up the best record ever, losing only 10 games in 1996 (ugh TWENT YEARS AGO!? feeling old here!). That's a 87.8% winning percentage. Against the best men of that era.
The Warriors are 60-6 after blowing the New Orleans Pelicans out last night. 60-6. That's better than 9 out of every 10 games...against the best players of this era. 90.9%. That means, this group shouldn't lose two more games. WOW. 75-7 potentially. Just unreal.
I don't know NBA basketball like I do hockey, but this is not a weak NBA. The talent level is high and spread out. There are a lot of teams with potential to play mighty good basketball. So for the Warriors to be leveling every team so consistently amazes me. This is a team that will change the way basketball is defended...or maybe rules get changed, who knows.
I get excited at where the game will be in five or ten years. In Jordan's wake came tons of athletic shooting guards and small forwards throwing the ball down with force or drawing men over and making the sweet pass for an easy bucket - expanding on Jordan in different ways.
What follows Curry!?
Will others be banging out threes as regularly? Bigger guys nailing the three and drawing defenses out? Using that space to go in with acrobatic huge dunks? Who knows!
Honestly, I won't be thinking about the future once the playoffs start. I'll be watching the NOW and enjoying it. Curry and the Warriors are fun to watch.
The action last night...was action-filled. (Goalies are overrated edition)
No game by game thing here, just some points from last night.
The Islanders! That was a nice come-back win against Florida. If Kyle Okposo plays in that next gear and gets space, he is a game changer. He started the third period scoring. Getting 3 in under ten minutes - nice. Bad for the Rangers, though. Go watch that Josh Bailey goal - I still don't get how that went in (but I may have missed a deflection there...even though I did look for it).
The Panthers. Um. Not good. It is just one game - it happens to the best teams. But I think there is something more systemic here. Some of their better defensive players were out there. They will have to play in a different gear come playoff time - this shows signs of an early exit, if not. 40minutes of solid hockey is not enough.
Chicago where have you gone!? This is two in a row where I have watched them give up space in their own zone. Dallas and Los Angeles don't need much help to hurt a team. Is Duncan Keith nursing an injury? Can't ever blow this team off in the playoffs, but as things sit in these last few games (0-2-1 current streak), they have to improve in their own zone.
The Kings. Tonight against the Stars will show a lot of how they believe in themselves. But this game was near perfection by all. Jonathan Quick made some good saves, i'm sure. But the Kings didn't let much happen in front of him. Drew Doughty is only 26 years old. Vinny Lecavalier looks to be invigorated - still old, but at this point you have to admire his ability to just fit in and do what he can.
As a note: Want to see why I believe goalies are overrated? Go watch just the highlights of that game. The Blackhawks got 7 more shots on goal. Watch what they claim are tough saves by King's goalie Jonathan Quick, who gets ALL WORLD credit for the win. There is one, where he gives up a JUICY rebound. Why wasn't it put in???? Because a defenseman had the Chicago player, who was in perfect position for that rebound kinda tied up...as in totally eliminated. Another save he makes is down low - most goalies make that save. Now watch what Corey Crawford deals with. The first goal was Kris Versteeg on a rebound in the center - untouched. The second was a Milan Lucic goal - sweetly placed. Why was Crawford back in the net? Anze Kopitar was free on the far-side of the net - Crawford had to play the potential pass as well. Vincent Lecavalier's goal??? Geesh! Dustin Brown puts a sweet dangle on the guy. And the last goal, again Crawford is feeling helpless and playing back in the net - almost looks like he lost confidence in his team on that one. And that last goal is the only - the ONLY one that another goalie might have saved - might have played differently. Quick was lucky to be on the other end of those plays. You won't hear that from anyone else and that is why I have to say Goalie are overrated.
St. Louis Blues! C'mon. You cannot lose this game. Calgary certainly can play with nothing to lose - all offense hockey, but you can't do this. I have been believing in the Ken Hitchcock coached team. And honestly I can give an excuse here as well...the Blues just weren't expecting a no quit Calgary squad shooting all-out. But this could be a sign of one of those DEATH-in-the-Playoffs weaknesses (a trait of a lot Ken Hitchcock coached teams). Nah. I don't believe it. They will rebound from this. One positive, the continued strong play of Paul Stastny - go watch his first goal, SICK!
Note: I always get a chuckle when the goalie that was praised so so much in the previous game gets SHELLED in his next game. Jake Allen gets pulled but it didn't matter. Anders Nilsson looked unhelped as well. Watch the goals - none are truly the goalie's fault and that goes both ways. Goalies look foolish if their teams don't play defense and that is why I have to say...(refer to the above note)
Nashville gets a good win. A must-win, after losing their previous two to non-playoff teams. I am a believer in Peter Laviolette and his next three games will be good indication as to how this team stacks up for the playoffs. There is a lot of talent here. (next three are: Islanders, Capitals, Kings)
Anaheim did what St. Louis should have done. Played 60 minutes of lockdown hockey. Watch the goals on this one - just some good passing and finishing. The next two games will be fun to watch - Rangers and Bruins - if Anaheim gets wins, they have no real test until an April 3rd game versus Dallas, a run that could put them in first place overall.
The Islanders! That was a nice come-back win against Florida. If Kyle Okposo plays in that next gear and gets space, he is a game changer. He started the third period scoring. Getting 3 in under ten minutes - nice. Bad for the Rangers, though. Go watch that Josh Bailey goal - I still don't get how that went in (but I may have missed a deflection there...even though I did look for it).
The Panthers. Um. Not good. It is just one game - it happens to the best teams. But I think there is something more systemic here. Some of their better defensive players were out there. They will have to play in a different gear come playoff time - this shows signs of an early exit, if not. 40minutes of solid hockey is not enough.
Chicago where have you gone!? This is two in a row where I have watched them give up space in their own zone. Dallas and Los Angeles don't need much help to hurt a team. Is Duncan Keith nursing an injury? Can't ever blow this team off in the playoffs, but as things sit in these last few games (0-2-1 current streak), they have to improve in their own zone.
The Kings. Tonight against the Stars will show a lot of how they believe in themselves. But this game was near perfection by all. Jonathan Quick made some good saves, i'm sure. But the Kings didn't let much happen in front of him. Drew Doughty is only 26 years old. Vinny Lecavalier looks to be invigorated - still old, but at this point you have to admire his ability to just fit in and do what he can.
As a note: Want to see why I believe goalies are overrated? Go watch just the highlights of that game. The Blackhawks got 7 more shots on goal. Watch what they claim are tough saves by King's goalie Jonathan Quick, who gets ALL WORLD credit for the win. There is one, where he gives up a JUICY rebound. Why wasn't it put in???? Because a defenseman had the Chicago player, who was in perfect position for that rebound kinda tied up...as in totally eliminated. Another save he makes is down low - most goalies make that save. Now watch what Corey Crawford deals with. The first goal was Kris Versteeg on a rebound in the center - untouched. The second was a Milan Lucic goal - sweetly placed. Why was Crawford back in the net? Anze Kopitar was free on the far-side of the net - Crawford had to play the potential pass as well. Vincent Lecavalier's goal??? Geesh! Dustin Brown puts a sweet dangle on the guy. And the last goal, again Crawford is feeling helpless and playing back in the net - almost looks like he lost confidence in his team on that one. And that last goal is the only - the ONLY one that another goalie might have saved - might have played differently. Quick was lucky to be on the other end of those plays. You won't hear that from anyone else and that is why I have to say Goalie are overrated.
St. Louis Blues! C'mon. You cannot lose this game. Calgary certainly can play with nothing to lose - all offense hockey, but you can't do this. I have been believing in the Ken Hitchcock coached team. And honestly I can give an excuse here as well...the Blues just weren't expecting a no quit Calgary squad shooting all-out. But this could be a sign of one of those DEATH-in-the-Playoffs weaknesses (a trait of a lot Ken Hitchcock coached teams). Nah. I don't believe it. They will rebound from this. One positive, the continued strong play of Paul Stastny - go watch his first goal, SICK!
Note: I always get a chuckle when the goalie that was praised so so much in the previous game gets SHELLED in his next game. Jake Allen gets pulled but it didn't matter. Anders Nilsson looked unhelped as well. Watch the goals - none are truly the goalie's fault and that goes both ways. Goalies look foolish if their teams don't play defense and that is why I have to say...(refer to the above note)
Nashville gets a good win. A must-win, after losing their previous two to non-playoff teams. I am a believer in Peter Laviolette and his next three games will be good indication as to how this team stacks up for the playoffs. There is a lot of talent here. (next three are: Islanders, Capitals, Kings)
Anaheim did what St. Louis should have done. Played 60 minutes of lockdown hockey. Watch the goals on this one - just some good passing and finishing. The next two games will be fun to watch - Rangers and Bruins - if Anaheim gets wins, they have no real test until an April 3rd game versus Dallas, a run that could put them in first place overall.
12 March 2016
Let's look at the games from last night...
I didn't get to watch much of any of them. But in the highlights and after watching some of key moments in the Blues-Ducks game there is a lot to take away.
Pittsburgh needed a solid win. Fleury gets his 350th win.
The Pens have to beat teams like the Blue Jackets. They did. The Blue Jackets are up and down. The Pens handled them solidly. Good win. However, the Pens aren't showing dominance. This is a team that can blow a 3-1 series lead, nothing new there.
3-2 Pittsburgh win.
Philadelphia gets a win. Tampa Bay loses.
The Flyers are playing as well as they have all season. The goalie tandem is working for them. That will be interesting in the playoffs - mental weakness gets exploited, can either goalie step up or will either goalie just crack after getting pulled? It doesn't matter as yet, because the Flyers aren't in the playoffs - but they are certainly playing their asses off. Detroit and the Pens better not slack off...
3-1 Philadelphia win/
Philly has a tough set of games coming up - five straight playoff teams. Beating the Lightning twice in a row means little if they can't win at least 3 of the next five. Especially the game against Detroit on Tuesday.
The Lightning have lost three in a row here - two against the Flyers. The offense is streaky for this group. We know the talent is there. But are they as solid in their end as they were last year? The rest of March is not terrible. Let's see how the Lightning do.
Ducks create Puck Luck for Blues.
A Hampus Lindholm errant pass creates an easy opportunity for Patrick Berglund to give the Blues a two goal cushion in the third. This comes after Vladimir Tarasenko makes a handsy play to block a Ducks' own-zone pass and then control the loose puck to Jaden Schwartz, who puts a sweet pass to Jori Lehtera. Lehtera, untouched, places the pucks swiftly in the net. A very even game gets broken open...because the Ducks just weren't lucky...errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr....stop the record.
5-2 St. Louis win.
Both team have positives to take away here. The St. Louis forecheck was working and they rolled four lines effectively. The Ducks, other than those two big lapses, had a lot of good breakouts and were still able to create chances in the Blues' end. This game makes you want the Playoffs to start soon!
Stars take advantage of soft Blackhawks play.
The Stars need this win. Lindy Ruff becomes the fifth winningest coach in league history on it. But more importantly the Stars need some confidence. That said, Chicago has to learn from it and move on. I don't think Chicago players got even a stick on any of the Stars' goals. Good puck movement on the Stars part but the Hawks didn't make it tough on them. Tyler Seguin gets on the board after a six game goal drought - long for him!
5-2 Dallas win.
Dallas has a tough March ahead. St Louis, Los Angeles, Islanders, Tampa, Chicago and San Jose await them. We will certainly know if this team is playoff ready.
Chicago has struggled a bit against the top teams. Regardless, they should be feared come playoff time.
Pittsburgh needed a solid win. Fleury gets his 350th win.
The Pens have to beat teams like the Blue Jackets. They did. The Blue Jackets are up and down. The Pens handled them solidly. Good win. However, the Pens aren't showing dominance. This is a team that can blow a 3-1 series lead, nothing new there.
3-2 Pittsburgh win.
Philadelphia gets a win. Tampa Bay loses.
The Flyers are playing as well as they have all season. The goalie tandem is working for them. That will be interesting in the playoffs - mental weakness gets exploited, can either goalie step up or will either goalie just crack after getting pulled? It doesn't matter as yet, because the Flyers aren't in the playoffs - but they are certainly playing their asses off. Detroit and the Pens better not slack off...
3-1 Philadelphia win/
Philly has a tough set of games coming up - five straight playoff teams. Beating the Lightning twice in a row means little if they can't win at least 3 of the next five. Especially the game against Detroit on Tuesday.
The Lightning have lost three in a row here - two against the Flyers. The offense is streaky for this group. We know the talent is there. But are they as solid in their end as they were last year? The rest of March is not terrible. Let's see how the Lightning do.
Ducks create Puck Luck for Blues.
A Hampus Lindholm errant pass creates an easy opportunity for Patrick Berglund to give the Blues a two goal cushion in the third. This comes after Vladimir Tarasenko makes a handsy play to block a Ducks' own-zone pass and then control the loose puck to Jaden Schwartz, who puts a sweet pass to Jori Lehtera. Lehtera, untouched, places the pucks swiftly in the net. A very even game gets broken open...because the Ducks just weren't lucky...errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr....stop the record.
5-2 St. Louis win.
Both team have positives to take away here. The St. Louis forecheck was working and they rolled four lines effectively. The Ducks, other than those two big lapses, had a lot of good breakouts and were still able to create chances in the Blues' end. This game makes you want the Playoffs to start soon!
Stars take advantage of soft Blackhawks play.
The Stars need this win. Lindy Ruff becomes the fifth winningest coach in league history on it. But more importantly the Stars need some confidence. That said, Chicago has to learn from it and move on. I don't think Chicago players got even a stick on any of the Stars' goals. Good puck movement on the Stars part but the Hawks didn't make it tough on them. Tyler Seguin gets on the board after a six game goal drought - long for him!
5-2 Dallas win.
Dallas has a tough March ahead. St Louis, Los Angeles, Islanders, Tampa, Chicago and San Jose await them. We will certainly know if this team is playoff ready.
Chicago has struggled a bit against the top teams. Regardless, they should be feared come playoff time.
11 March 2016
Analytics: Watching vs Numbers
here ya go, give this a read: Analytics and the Ducks
Rob Vollman is definitely one of the new analytics geeks. He crunches numbers and breaks down situational stats and all that. The primary stat is shots for all of it.
This guy uses the numbers to show that the Ducks have been THIS GOOD ALL SEASON. Even though the first part of the season saw them go 1-7-2 in October, 8-4-3 in November, 6-4-1 in December, 7-3-1 in January , 12-1-1 in February and now 3-1-1 so far in March. Clearly, this team's record has transitioned throughout the season. And now with the crazy run they are on since the All-Star break 15-2-2. Vollman looks at the shot stats and concludes that the difference between the early season losses and the current hot streak is just Puck Luck.
Puck Luck?! This is what the experts are saying? Dems da bounces, lady.
Personally, I am glad the analytics groups are voicing such non-sense. Maybe they will start refining the data they track. Shot counts don't matter in any specific game. Sure they are "fun" to look at after...but they tell little on a game-by-game basis and this Rob Vollman-type "Analytics" prattling display how inadequate shots are to measure performance.
I watched the early Anaheim team and I have been watching them over the last month as well. This is not a team playing the same way they played in October. They were lost on the ice often. The d-pairings struggled and ultimately they gave up HIGH QUALITY shots. They weren't victims to Puck Luck when Ryan Getzlaf lost the puck at mid-ice during overtime, allowing a breakaway game-winning goal. It wasn't Puck Luck when teams were generating uncontested chances in the middle of the ice.
Look at their progression - Crappy start. Gradual improvement all season. This is indicative of a team learning to play their coach's style. A team adjusting to different players. Francois Beauchemin's minutes were a lot to replace, if nothing else. Or maybe it was Puck Luck.
Puck Luck says don't change anything and just do what you are doing, you'll get the bounces.
Hockey says Quality of Shots matter. If my teams sets up Tanner Glass 12 times in a game and your team sets up Corey Perry in the same situations, your team wins almost every time.
Puck Luck says it's 50/50. And this is why the New Analytics are ridiculous.
* as a note: If it's Puck Luck, why do you see any progression through the season? Luck doesn't progress...
Rob Vollman is definitely one of the new analytics geeks. He crunches numbers and breaks down situational stats and all that. The primary stat is shots for all of it.
This guy uses the numbers to show that the Ducks have been THIS GOOD ALL SEASON. Even though the first part of the season saw them go 1-7-2 in October, 8-4-3 in November, 6-4-1 in December, 7-3-1 in January , 12-1-1 in February and now 3-1-1 so far in March. Clearly, this team's record has transitioned throughout the season. And now with the crazy run they are on since the All-Star break 15-2-2. Vollman looks at the shot stats and concludes that the difference between the early season losses and the current hot streak is just Puck Luck.
Puck Luck?! This is what the experts are saying? Dems da bounces, lady.
Personally, I am glad the analytics groups are voicing such non-sense. Maybe they will start refining the data they track. Shot counts don't matter in any specific game. Sure they are "fun" to look at after...but they tell little on a game-by-game basis and this Rob Vollman-type "Analytics" prattling display how inadequate shots are to measure performance.
I watched the early Anaheim team and I have been watching them over the last month as well. This is not a team playing the same way they played in October. They were lost on the ice often. The d-pairings struggled and ultimately they gave up HIGH QUALITY shots. They weren't victims to Puck Luck when Ryan Getzlaf lost the puck at mid-ice during overtime, allowing a breakaway game-winning goal. It wasn't Puck Luck when teams were generating uncontested chances in the middle of the ice.
Look at their progression - Crappy start. Gradual improvement all season. This is indicative of a team learning to play their coach's style. A team adjusting to different players. Francois Beauchemin's minutes were a lot to replace, if nothing else. Or maybe it was Puck Luck.
Puck Luck says don't change anything and just do what you are doing, you'll get the bounces.
Hockey says Quality of Shots matter. If my teams sets up Tanner Glass 12 times in a game and your team sets up Corey Perry in the same situations, your team wins almost every time.
Puck Luck says it's 50/50. And this is why the New Analytics are ridiculous.
* as a note: If it's Puck Luck, why do you see any progression through the season? Luck doesn't progress...
10 March 2016
6 games last night 5 important ones
Crunch time is upon us.
I read an article yesterday saying something about why play the last 20 games of the season because the teams that are in the playoffs at this point of the season remain in the playoffs something like 92% of the time. So just end the season now.
That rationale doesn't work for me. Statistics are great when looking at bulk data. They are not so great at predicting specific outcomes. The idea that statistics are predictive is why we find so many hockey analytics sprouting up and so many new stats that really add nothing to the sport*. This is another stat like that. The Rangers, before december, were something like 15000-0-1 when leading after two periods. Under the above rationale, why play the third period, right? Well, unfortunately for the Rangers in december the third had to be played and the Rangers lost at least a couple more than they would have.
Personally, I love this time of year. Sure some teams mail it in. But for the most part, there are men out there with pride that don't take nights off. Last night was a perfect example. All 6 games dealt with blown leads or a non-playoff team upsetting a playoff team. It was fun hockey.
I didn't get to watch all the games, but I saw a few and they were intense.
New York Islanders at Toronto:
Losing a shootout is not a terrible loss, true. But if the Islanders want to finish 2nd in the Metro division, they have to beat teams like this. Toronto's infusion of youth has added energy to their play - think Arizona at the start of the season. The Islanders got a point and played resilient but not good enough in their own end. Not 60 minute hockey.
4 - 3 Toronto in shoot-out
Chicago at St. Louis:
Two teams vying for the West point lead. Neither disappointed. This was another fantastic game between two very good teams playing all out there. I cannot wait for the seven game series of this one.
3 - 2 St. Louis in shoot-out
Nashville at Calgary:
I didn't watch this. But the Predators have been playing so well, this is not what I expected. The key is two-fold: they got a point after being down 2 in the third and they have to rebound with more wins. They face two must-wins prior to a potential battle against the Islanders. Win the two easier ones and a win against the Isles is big.
3 - 2 Calgary in overtime
Arizona at Vancouver:
This game doesn't matter. But the men on the ice still played all out. Vancouver were down two in the crazy second period before tying it before the middle session ended.
3 - 2 Vancouver in overtime
Anaheim at Colorado:
This is the last game I would have thought to be a blow-out. I didn't see much of it, but what I did see - Colorado's speed was producing great transition and break-outs. Anaheim had moments but they just weren't getting a lot of clean attempts on the net. Erik Johnson D for Colorado looked awesome at times.
3 - 0 Colorado
Washington at Los Angeles:
After a tough battle with Anaheim for two points, the Capitals jumped on the ice against the Kings last night. LA jumped on the score sheet, netting 3 in the first period. And that is what makes this Caps team a little different than the last few years - they can get back in a game against a very good team without giving up more high quality chances. It was fun to watch.
4 - 3 Los Angeles in overtime
It was a great night of hockey and I am glad we have more games ahead in the build-up to the playoffs.
* All the shot-based stats analysis is nothing better than the plus-minus stat. They bring a granularity that can be interesting but really, not every shot is equal and if that isn't factored in to the stat then it is misleading.
I read an article yesterday saying something about why play the last 20 games of the season because the teams that are in the playoffs at this point of the season remain in the playoffs something like 92% of the time. So just end the season now.
That rationale doesn't work for me. Statistics are great when looking at bulk data. They are not so great at predicting specific outcomes. The idea that statistics are predictive is why we find so many hockey analytics sprouting up and so many new stats that really add nothing to the sport*. This is another stat like that. The Rangers, before december, were something like 15000-0-1 when leading after two periods. Under the above rationale, why play the third period, right? Well, unfortunately for the Rangers in december the third had to be played and the Rangers lost at least a couple more than they would have.
Personally, I love this time of year. Sure some teams mail it in. But for the most part, there are men out there with pride that don't take nights off. Last night was a perfect example. All 6 games dealt with blown leads or a non-playoff team upsetting a playoff team. It was fun hockey.
I didn't get to watch all the games, but I saw a few and they were intense.
New York Islanders at Toronto:
Losing a shootout is not a terrible loss, true. But if the Islanders want to finish 2nd in the Metro division, they have to beat teams like this. Toronto's infusion of youth has added energy to their play - think Arizona at the start of the season. The Islanders got a point and played resilient but not good enough in their own end. Not 60 minute hockey.
4 - 3 Toronto in shoot-out
Chicago at St. Louis:
Two teams vying for the West point lead. Neither disappointed. This was another fantastic game between two very good teams playing all out there. I cannot wait for the seven game series of this one.
3 - 2 St. Louis in shoot-out
Nashville at Calgary:
I didn't watch this. But the Predators have been playing so well, this is not what I expected. The key is two-fold: they got a point after being down 2 in the third and they have to rebound with more wins. They face two must-wins prior to a potential battle against the Islanders. Win the two easier ones and a win against the Isles is big.
3 - 2 Calgary in overtime
Arizona at Vancouver:
This game doesn't matter. But the men on the ice still played all out. Vancouver were down two in the crazy second period before tying it before the middle session ended.
3 - 2 Vancouver in overtime
Anaheim at Colorado:
This is the last game I would have thought to be a blow-out. I didn't see much of it, but what I did see - Colorado's speed was producing great transition and break-outs. Anaheim had moments but they just weren't getting a lot of clean attempts on the net. Erik Johnson D for Colorado looked awesome at times.
3 - 0 Colorado
Washington at Los Angeles:
After a tough battle with Anaheim for two points, the Capitals jumped on the ice against the Kings last night. LA jumped on the score sheet, netting 3 in the first period. And that is what makes this Caps team a little different than the last few years - they can get back in a game against a very good team without giving up more high quality chances. It was fun to watch.
4 - 3 Los Angeles in overtime
It was a great night of hockey and I am glad we have more games ahead in the build-up to the playoffs.
* All the shot-based stats analysis is nothing better than the plus-minus stat. They bring a granularity that can be interesting but really, not every shot is equal and if that isn't factored in to the stat then it is misleading.
07 March 2016
Now the West...
In the West.
Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago made trade deadline moves. I was blown away. They were good before...now, they are deeper and added those tight game type of guys. Not sure why I would be surprised by their management - they seem to make moves as needed every year.
WHAT REMAINS: 15 games. 7 home 8 away. 8 are current playoff teams. 2 vs STL, MIN, DAL. 1 vs LAK, BOS.
As this team gels, we will see how great they can be. They will have to be in order to clean the West and end up in the finals again. All this with Corey Crawford - the simplest goalie out there. (goalies are overrated proof :) )
Anaheim Ducks: Um. Not sure what the shift was - my guess is, they have adjusted to losing their number one d-man Francois Beauchemin and then a solid third line guy in Matt Belesky. Whatever the case - this team might be geared to beat Los Angeles and Chicago, finally. No small order, though.
WHAT REMAINS: 18 games.8 home 10 away. 7 vs current playoff teams. 2 vs WSH. 1 vs NYR, LAK, STL, BOS, DAL.
Welp, until they show differently, they won't lose many more. In a seven game series, they will be tough. Chicago may be the only team to beat them.
Los Angeles Kings: They are not finishing games of late. I am still a believer but they need to prove it on the stretch run here.
WHAT REMAINS: 18 games. 10 home 8 away. 10 vs current playoff teams. 2 vs DAL. 1 vs WSH, CHI, NYR, BOS, NSH, MIN, SJS, ANA.
A lot to weigh this team by in their remaining games. I know they aren't going to lose easily. How they do will change my playoff outlook.
St Louis Blues: This team is deep. That makes them difficult. The defense is as good as any. It all comes down to those forward lines. It is hard to judge fully because I think they have only had five games this season with their full forward setup.
WHAT REMAINS: 15 games. 7 home 8 away. 8 against current playoff teams. 2 vs WSH, CHI. 1 vs ANA, DAL, SJS, BOS.
Good remaining schedule. We will know better about them and I think they can maintain their spot in the playoffs.
Gotta eat. More to come...
Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago made trade deadline moves. I was blown away. They were good before...now, they are deeper and added those tight game type of guys. Not sure why I would be surprised by their management - they seem to make moves as needed every year.
WHAT REMAINS: 15 games. 7 home 8 away. 8 are current playoff teams. 2 vs STL, MIN, DAL. 1 vs LAK, BOS.
As this team gels, we will see how great they can be. They will have to be in order to clean the West and end up in the finals again. All this with Corey Crawford - the simplest goalie out there. (goalies are overrated proof :) )
Anaheim Ducks: Um. Not sure what the shift was - my guess is, they have adjusted to losing their number one d-man Francois Beauchemin and then a solid third line guy in Matt Belesky. Whatever the case - this team might be geared to beat Los Angeles and Chicago, finally. No small order, though.
WHAT REMAINS: 18 games.8 home 10 away. 7 vs current playoff teams. 2 vs WSH. 1 vs NYR, LAK, STL, BOS, DAL.
Welp, until they show differently, they won't lose many more. In a seven game series, they will be tough. Chicago may be the only team to beat them.
Los Angeles Kings: They are not finishing games of late. I am still a believer but they need to prove it on the stretch run here.
WHAT REMAINS: 18 games. 10 home 8 away. 10 vs current playoff teams. 2 vs DAL. 1 vs WSH, CHI, NYR, BOS, NSH, MIN, SJS, ANA.
A lot to weigh this team by in their remaining games. I know they aren't going to lose easily. How they do will change my playoff outlook.
St Louis Blues: This team is deep. That makes them difficult. The defense is as good as any. It all comes down to those forward lines. It is hard to judge fully because I think they have only had five games this season with their full forward setup.
WHAT REMAINS: 15 games. 7 home 8 away. 8 against current playoff teams. 2 vs WSH, CHI. 1 vs ANA, DAL, SJS, BOS.
Good remaining schedule. We will know better about them and I think they can maintain their spot in the playoffs.
Gotta eat. More to come...
How things look: The last 15 or so...
Fifteen games or so to go for most teams. It is becoming clouded. Mid-season saw a shortlist of dominant teams. Two have won five of the last six Cups. Chicago and Los Angeles. Washington was the other clear cut dominant team.
Sure Dallas had looked dominant - but they pulled up becoming just a .500 team.
Well, as this season winds down - there are a lot of teams proving their potential, adding to the mix that may well lift that Stanley Cup for 2016.
In the East.
Washington Capitals: You remove that Montreal loss a few weeks ago and this team looks as good as ever. Their losses of late owe more to a tough schedule than a glaring weakness. Dallas, Chicago, Florida and the Rangers are the only ones to get wins against this team since the All-star break. That is solid.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 7 home 10 away. 11 are against current playoff teams. 2 vs ANA, STL, PIT. 1 vs LAK, SJS, NSH, COL, NYI.
A lot to be known for the Caps. To me this is the Caps best team ever - O to D.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa has nine wins in a row. And they should. It's all been against teams they need to beat. That said - they are also playing good hockey at both ends. You want to outshoot them, good luck. You want to play tight, they oblige that too. Tampa is looking like that team from last year.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 8 home 9 away. 7 are current playoff teams. 2 vs NYI. 1 vs BOS, DAL, DET, FLA, NYR.
Really, the Lightning should finish strong and hold on to the top spot in the Atlantic. They are good. I am not sure they improved over last season. But really, the WEST is different and if one of those top teams gets upset, Tampa could lift the Cup vs San Jose or St Louis. I think Chicago wins in 6 again, if that is what happens.
New York Rangers: The Rangers have found that resilient play that got them wins in the beginning of the season. They aren't great at anything but they are solid at it all. They block shots. They give up shots but fight to contest them. The goalies are good...um Lundquist, Duh. And they help the goalies out just enough - limiting those easy goals mostly.
WHAT REMAINS: 16 games. 8 home 8 away. 11 are current playoff teams. 2 vs DET, PIT. 1 vs ANA, LAK, SJS, FLA, BOS, TBL, NYI
That is not an easy schedule. It will be difficult to hold on the two spot in the Metro division. On the other hand, lots will be learned in this final 5th of the season. Maybe, Staal and Nash can make this team too deep to keep out of the net. I am hopeful but not betting anything.
Florida Panthers: Injuries have kept this team inconsistent the entire season. If they can work in the new deadline trade talent and get in the playoffs playing together, they can be tough. Losing four of their last five to weaker teams is not good.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 8 home 9 away. 6 are current playoff teams. 2 vs BOS. 1 vs NYR, NYI, TBL, DET.
Well, the schedule is not bad on paper. But it is full of teams they have been losing to of late. A lot to prove and a great schedule to prove it against.
New York Islanders: This team might be coming together at just the right time. They are deep. They have top tier offensive talent. The defense is a solid top four and not soft to play against. I would imagine John Tavares is hungry for a deep playoff run.
WHAT REMAINS: 19 games. 10 home 9 away. 11 are current playoff teams. 3 vs PIT 2 vs TBL 1 vs BOS, FLA, NSH, DAL, WSH, NYR.
I'm not sold on this team yet. But I do think they have enough depth. Can they score without giving up chances? That is what to watch for in the remaining 19.
Boston Bruins: The Bruins just won't go away. No one picked them to do much as they seemed to be rebuilding. But the core is carrying through. I am impressed.
WHAT REMAINS: 16 games. 6 home 10 away. 11 against current playoff teams. 2 vs FLA. 1 vs CHI, TBL, NYI, SJS, ANA, LAK, NYR, STL, DET.
This is no easy schedule to end the season. The Bruins should feel good if they come close to splitting this. If they steal more points, I will be impressed...again.
Pittsburgh Penguins: I keep waiting for the Pens to look dominant. But I think the defensive commitment is killing them. They can score but not without opening things up. That will be their death if they can't fix it.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 7 home 10 away. 9 vs playoff teams. 3 vs NYI. 2 vs WSH, NYR. 1 vs DET, NSH.
The Pens can show a lot by how they finish the season out. I have too much respect for Crosby and Malkin to fully not believe in this team. That said. Defense is necessary. Lets see if they can do it.
Detroit Red Wings: Similar to the Bruins, but more rebuilding going on. The young guys are good but not good enough and the old guys are great but...OLD. The defense is committed and not easy - the system works - for years. However, if they don't do it right, they could slip out of the playoffs. Their cushion over the Flyers is scant 4 points with one fewer game remaining. The Flyers are impossible to predict.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 8 home 9 away. 7 against current playoff teams. 2 vs NYR. 1 vs FLA, TBL, PIT, MIN, BOS.
I am not counting on this team finishing strong. That said..can the Flyers play consistent enough to take this spot? Hard to answer that.
Next up...the West.
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