Analytics: Watching vs Numbers

here ya go, give this a read: Analytics and the Ducks

Rob Vollman is definitely one of the new analytics geeks. He crunches numbers and breaks down situational stats and all that. The primary stat is shots for all of it.

This guy uses the numbers to show that the Ducks have been THIS GOOD ALL SEASON. Even though the first part of the season saw them go 1-7-2 in October, 8-4-3 in November, 6-4-1 in December, 7-3-1 in January , 12-1-1 in February and now 3-1-1 so far in March. Clearly, this team's record has transitioned throughout the season. And now with the crazy run they are on since the All-Star break 15-2-2. Vollman looks at the shot stats and concludes that the difference between the early season losses and the current hot streak is just Puck Luck.

Puck Luck?! This is what the experts are saying? Dems da bounces, lady.

Personally, I am glad the analytics groups are voicing such non-sense. Maybe they will start refining the data they track. Shot counts don't matter in any specific game. Sure they are "fun" to look at after...but they tell little on a game-by-game basis and this Rob Vollman-type "Analytics" prattling display how inadequate shots are to measure performance.

I watched the early Anaheim team and I have been watching them over the last month as well. This is not a team playing the same way they played in October. They were lost on the ice often. The d-pairings struggled and ultimately they gave up HIGH QUALITY shots. They weren't victims to Puck Luck when Ryan Getzlaf lost the puck at mid-ice during overtime, allowing a breakaway game-winning goal. It wasn't Puck Luck when teams were generating uncontested chances in the middle of the ice.

Look at their progression - Crappy start. Gradual improvement all season. This is indicative of a team learning to play their coach's style. A team adjusting to different players. Francois Beauchemin's minutes were a lot to replace, if nothing else. Or maybe it was Puck Luck.

Puck Luck says don't change anything and just do what you are doing, you'll get the bounces.

Hockey says Quality of Shots matter. If my teams sets up Tanner Glass 12 times in a game and your team sets up Corey Perry in the same situations, your team wins almost every time.

Puck Luck says it's 50/50. And this is why the New Analytics are ridiculous.

* as a note: If it's Puck Luck, why do you see any progression through the season? Luck doesn't progress...