10 March 2016

6 games last night 5 important ones

Crunch time is upon us.

I read an article yesterday saying something about why play the last 20 games of the season because the teams that are in the playoffs at this point of the season remain in the playoffs something like 92% of the time. So just end the season now.

That rationale doesn't work for me. Statistics are great when looking at bulk data. They are not so great at predicting specific outcomes. The idea that statistics are predictive is why we find so many hockey analytics sprouting up and so many new stats that really add nothing to the sport*. This is another stat like that. The Rangers, before december, were something like 15000-0-1 when leading after two periods. Under the above rationale, why play the third period, right? Well, unfortunately for the Rangers in december the third had to be played and the Rangers lost at least a couple more than they would have.

Personally, I love this time of year. Sure some teams mail it in. But for the most part, there are men out there with pride that don't take nights off. Last night was a perfect example. All 6 games dealt with blown leads or a non-playoff team upsetting a playoff team. It was fun hockey.

I didn't get to watch all the games, but I saw a few and they were intense.

New York Islanders at Toronto:
Losing a shootout is not a terrible loss, true. But if the Islanders want to finish 2nd in the Metro division, they have to beat teams like this. Toronto's infusion of youth has added energy to their play - think Arizona at the start of the season. The Islanders got a point and played resilient but not good enough in their own end. Not 60 minute hockey.
4 - 3 Toronto in shoot-out

Chicago at St. Louis:
Two teams vying for the West point lead. Neither disappointed. This was another fantastic game between two very good teams playing all out there. I cannot wait for the seven game series of this one.
3 - 2 St. Louis in shoot-out

Nashville at Calgary:
I didn't watch this. But the Predators have been playing so well, this is not what I expected. The key is two-fold: they got a point after being down 2 in the third and they have to rebound with more wins. They face two must-wins prior to a potential battle against the Islanders. Win the two easier ones and a win against the Isles is big.
3 - 2 Calgary in overtime

Arizona at Vancouver:
This game doesn't matter. But the men on the ice still played all out. Vancouver were down two in the crazy second period before tying it before the middle session ended.
3 - 2 Vancouver in overtime

Anaheim at Colorado:
This is the last game I would have thought to be a blow-out. I didn't see much of it, but what I did see - Colorado's speed was producing great transition and break-outs. Anaheim had moments but they just weren't getting a lot of clean attempts on the net. Erik Johnson D for Colorado looked awesome at times.
3 - 0 Colorado

Washington at Los Angeles:
After a tough battle with Anaheim for two points, the Capitals jumped on the ice against the Kings last night. LA jumped on the score sheet, netting 3 in the first period. And that is what makes this Caps team a little different than the last few years - they can get back in a game against a very good team without giving up more high quality chances. It was fun to watch.
4 - 3 Los Angeles in overtime

It was a great night of hockey and I am glad we have more games ahead in the build-up to the playoffs.

* All the shot-based stats analysis is nothing better than the plus-minus stat. They bring a granularity that can be interesting but really, not every shot is equal and if that isn't factored in to the stat then it is misleading.

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