Eastern Showdown

Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh
Finally get some quiet time and I feel fine enough to type.

The Lightning - how did they get here?

First Round - 5 games over Detroit
Detroit was out-matched at every angle. Datsyuk never looked Datsyuk-like. In the games I watched, I might have seen one sick move and maybe one of his slick wristers. It isn't enough and wasn't. Tampa looked very good, but I dismissed a lot of the strong success because it was a thinned-out Detroit and their top players weren't effective. Looking back, they weren't effective because the likes of Hedman and the other defensemen are solid and speedy.

Second Round - 5 games over the New York Islanders

The Islanders were certainly more competition. They dismissed Florida in 6 games and although the Panthers had holes in their game, I didn't believe the Isles were deep enough to exploit them. They did and looked solid doing so.  Tampa, however, surprising me again with their ability to shut down the Isles and the Isles lack of forward depth was too much to overcome. Again, I blamed the competition more than crediting the Lightning. Looking back, the Lightning, without Stamkos and Stralman - big minutes and top skill guys - are still deep on talent for their system. Hedman is looking like Chara in his prime.

The Penguins - how did they get here.

First Round - 5 games over the New York Rangers
This went very much as expected. Lundqvist (as all goalies) wasn't enough to stop Pittsburgh three lines and the Rangers' lack of speed hurt them going both directions. Hard to know what Pittsburgh had going for them from this series. It was just a bad matchup. Looking back - nothing changes. Pittsburgh won in every area of the ice.

Second Round - 6 games over Washington

This was somewhat of a surprise. Mainly in how ineffective the Caps were at scoring. They generated chances and were able to counter the Pens' speed, they just couldn't put it in the net. Some of that is the solid play of Pittsburgh 2nd/3rd string goalie, Matt Murray. Some of it was just the inept plays by some of the Caps' go-to players. I don't how many times I watched the Caps blow a rush with a bad pass. Or blow a solid scoring opportunity with a shot on the ice to one of Murray's leg pads. The Caps powerplay which has run effectively through Ovechkin all season (and for years) couldn't get creative once the Pens started allowing Ovie the shot, they would overplay that shot and he basically had to place it high and to the corner every time - didn't happen. Pens win - handily!

After those two rounds, I was totally leaning to Pittsburgh for the Conference Finals win. I was believing in Tampa more but still unsure of their speed. If the Pens get the break and transition game working, they enter the zone with good control and they have a lot of finishers. This is still the case. However, after game one, I have to say, the Lightning have the speed to match all of the Pens' lines and Hedman is truly shining.

The next game will tell a lot. No matter who wins, it will be interesting to see if the Pens can have impact with their speed. Can Hedman and company continue getting their sticks on the puck, disrupting the Pens' offense? Both teams had chances but the Pens' chances were nothing like they have had in the first two rounds.

I am certainly respecting the Lightning. Their speed is solid. And they may be the best finishing team in the league. If Stamkos and Stralman return and don't mess up the flow - they might actually win the Cup this year.

Western Showdown

St. Louis vs San Jose

 

The Sharks - how did they get here?

First Round - 5 games over Los Angeles
History can be a driving force in the way I look at things, and this was certainly the case with this series. I believed in both teams but just leaned on the Kings' past and what their core is made of. But the losses to their defense has been too much for them - primarily that Slava Voynov domestic debacle weaked the blueline and Muzzin and Martinez haven't filled that hole. San Jose looked so good here and I though going in, if they get past the Kings, they can win the whole thing. They have it all - forward skill. Forward finishers. Defensive threat in Burns. And with Ward and Couture, they have the toughness (I've been saying this since they got Couture a few years ago - but don't underestimate the impact of a guy like Joel Ward). In this series, everything showed up.

Second Round - 7 games over Nashville

For all the confidence I gained for the Sharks in round one, I lost as much in round two. They came out dominant early in the series and looked to blow the Preds out. But they failed to go in for the kill. I was disappointed - Nashville is good but not great. Forward depth (especially with an ineffective Filip Forsberg) isn't great. The defense is thin after Josi and Weber. And Rinne is exposed - if he has to move a lot laterally he gets destroyed. Anyway, the Sharks let this well-coached Predator team back in. What should have been a 5 game series went seven. That said, they were clicking in that final game.

The Blues - how did they get here?

First Round - 7 games over Chicago
This was what the San Jose - LA series was supposed to be. Having watched the Blues this season, I believed this was the year for them. They didn't let me down in round one. It was a great series - the defending champs didn't lay over - their high-end skill allowed for quick strikes and kept them in games where St. Louis controlled flow. St. Louis won on depth - both ends of the ice and skill and toughness and speed. This team proved they can muscle through playing that Hitchcock system rolling four lines.

Second Round - 7 games over Dallas

Not as disappointing as the Sharks' 2nd round, but St. Louis didn't show a killer instinct here as well. Most of the series, in every game, the Sharks had no answers for St. Louis' depth. The reason the Stars were even in the playoffs and in the series is because of the top-level offensive talent. Dallas' defensive holes (forwards and d depth) was obvious, yet the Stars were able to stretch it to a seventh game. That game was decisive, however, and the Blues' team just never slowed down. A lot is blamed on Dallas' goaltending - well, Dallas, go out and grab Lundqvist, if you can; make no other adjustments and end up in a similar spot next year. You have no defensive forward line and your mobile d-men are a liability with some solid defensive-minded guys to help them out.

After the two rounds, I don't know where to lean. Both the Sharks and the Blues have shown dominance. The Blues run a deeper team with no holes on defense. The Sharks have a better finishing team. Can the Sharks counter the third and fourth lines of the Blues? Can the Blues keep Pavelski and Couture and Burns in check without opening up to Marleau and Thornton?

It should go 7. I'll say Blues, but I may change that after tonight.

One win...overall a great game by the NYR

I watched no games last night...very embarrassing, really.

But I watched the Rangers today and I am impressed. To win three more won't be easy, but the Rangers showed how porous the Pittsburgh team is to quick attacks. Look forward to seeing what the Penguins will do to respond.

I can't expect the Rangers to win this series, but these two games makes me think they have a chance. Of course every team has a chance, but until this game, I just didn't think the Rangers would be creating the chances they created today. Granted, the Pens didn't finish some quality chances themselves. That happens. But the Rangers can't count on it. Lundqvist played great - holding solid at the end and saving everything on the ice. The Pens couldn't lift the puck and King Henrik smothered them in tight.

Overall the playoffs have shown some surprises.
The most surprising to me is Tampa Bay. That Johnson-Kucherov line with Killorn on it is potent. Very much like they were last season in the playoffs. I have to think not having Stamkos will hurt them. Luckily this Detroit team is not great. I expected Datsyuk and Zetterberg to at least create some easy scoring opportunities. Thus far they are not. Credit to this Tampa team executing well.

The West is crazy. I look forward to tonight's LA-San Jose game...it will be a battle.

More to come...i'm out for now.

About last night... 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Night Two

Pretty offensive night to say the least.

Capitals vs Flyers - One:
Washington wins 2 - 0
Washington lead series 1 - 0
Washington looked good in this game. Philadelphia had moments as well but really didn't get many good shots on Braden Holtby. The first period the Flyers had Washington just trying to catch up and they drew a few penalties as a result. The second and third periods were played more in Washington's pace than Philly's. If this continues, the Caps stand a good chance to win not only this series, but the entire East. Philly has positives to build on - Gostisbehere is such a good puck-mover and if they stay patient and wait on Washington to over-commit, the rush will be there for good transition goals. Washington looked mostly in control, though.

Islanders vs Panthers - One:
New York wins 5 - 4
New York leads series 1 - 0
This series should go seven. Both teams will get goals. Both teams have weaknesses. I think, the Isles look more susceptible to breaking down in their own zone, but they also look more able to exploit neutral zone transitions into the offensive zone. Florida needs Barkov to score. He and Jagr looked good and almost got the tying goal in the final minute or so of play. But almost isn't good enough for this line. The Isles top players got a couple. Tonight it could be Florida's top unit doing it. There are plenty of chances at both ends.

Stars vs Wild - One:
Dallas wins 4 - 0
Dallas leads series 1 - 0
The Stars are just too much for this wounded Minnesota team. I don't think Parise would help that much, even though he adds leadership and toughness. The Stars are just too much in every area. As long as the Stars don't get one-dimensional and cease to focus on their end or something, they have this series, maybe a sweep...probably a sweep - maybe all shutouts!

Kings vs Sharks - One:
San Jose wins 4 - 3
San Jose leads series 1 - 0
San Jose controlled the pace in this one. It wasn't domination by any stretch and this series should go seven - fans of hockey sure hope so. There were plays at both ends, guys stepping up. Joe Pavelski looks focused - he had a great game. Anze Kopitar wasn't a huge factor last night but I am sure he will be seen more. Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin moved the puck well. San Jose's team speed was impressive and the addition of Joel Ward has already made an impact. This is not a roll-over and die Sharks team of the past. Los Angeles won't be coming back if they get down 3 - 0 in the series (as they did a couple of years ago to the Sharks)

The goals and the goalies - Night two

Braden Holtby - 0 goals on 19 shots
no softies

Steve Mason - 2 goals on 31 shots
1st - John Carlson powerplay goal. Shot from the point, through two d-men, with a deflection and a bounce. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Jay Beagle places a beauty, high under the crossbar off an easy pass from Marcus Johansen who made a great neutral zone play against Jakob Voracek. NO CHANCE.
no softies

Thomas Greiss - 4 goals on 46 shots
1st - Teddy Purcell with a deflection. Great outlet pass by Dmitri Kulikov to Jiri Hudler who gives a perfect pass to Purcell. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Jussi Jokinen deflects the puck in the slot off a shot by Brian Campbell from the point. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Reilly Smith puts a great shot high, roofing the puck following a shot by Alex Petrovic that rebounds off the boards behnd the goal. NO CHANCE.
4th - Reilly Smith with a sweet, quick wrister, high, deflecting off Greiss's blocker. A+ Chance. (really NO CHANCE but it did hit is blocker so there is possible reason to think he COULD save it)
no softies

Roberto Luongo - 5 goals on 26 shots
1st - Brock Nelson with a sweet shot, high and on the post. Neutral zone turnover, Ryan Strome makes the pass that puts Nelson in alone. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Frans Neilsen makes a beautiful top shelf shot. John Tavares makes a nice play to get in the zone, creating a two-on-one. NO CHANCE.
3rd - John Tavares puts a shot low to the near side post off a quick cross-ice pass by Kyle Okposo. A+ Chance (maybe a Jonathan Quick/Mike Richter makes the post to post move on this - doubtful)
4th - Kyle Okposo buries it high in the corner off a pass from John Tavares who made a great steal to the goalies right. NO CHANCE.
5th - Ryan Strome finishes a rebound from a shot by Alan Quine who made a nice deke move. B+ first shot, NO CHANCE on the rebound.
no sofites

Kari Lehtonen - 0 goals on 22 shots
no softies

Devan Dubnyk - 3 goals on 31 shots
1st - Radek Faksa blazes a wrister to the top corner. Ales Hemsky makes a neutral zone steal and sets Faksa up with an easy one. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Jason Spezza with a nasty deke to wrister - top corner. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Patrick Eaves on the powerplay puts the shot over Dubnyk's stretched left pad off the rebound from Jamie Benn's screened shot. C chance saved then NO CHANCE.
no softies

Jonathan Quick - 4 goals on 23 shots
1st - Joe Pavelski lasers a one-timer to the far post on this powerplay goal (think Alex Ovechkin style). NO CHANCE.
2nd - Brent Burns off a face-off win wicked wrister to the near post. Slightly screened. NO CHANCE
3rd - Tomas Hertl pots it five-hole after a scramble in front of the net and on a bouncing puck. NO CHANCE. (could argue that Quick was moving too much - but it was a scramble, he could only guess)
4th - Joe Pavelski goes far-side post after a nice move from behind the net on Anze Kopitar. NO CHANCE (this is at worst an A+ only because the shot was on the ice - thus theoretically savable)
no softies

Martin Jones - 3 goals on 24 shots
1st - Jake Muzzin deflects one off a San Jose defender after pulling Martin Jones out of the net. NO CHANCE. (perhaps Martin shouldn't have been so aggressive out on Muzzin but many goalies do the same - he took the shot away, for sure)
2nd - Jeff Carter from behind the goal line makes a pass that gets deflected off a San Jose player into the net. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Trevor Lewis makes a rush down the ice, beats a retreating defenseman, and places a sick wrister high and near the post. NO CHANCE.
no softies

The goals and the goalies...

Tim Howard - 3 goals on 34 shots.
1st - Nikita Kucherov blast off a 3 on 2. Pass coming across. Placement near perfect. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Nikita Kucherov. Busted clearing attempt by Detroit (pucks goes out but quickly transitioned back into zone). Kucherov in front of the net, pass from behind by Braden Coburn. Howard makes initial save, no defense to clear the close rebound. Kucherov jams it back in. Initial chance an A+, rebound B.
3rd - Alex Killorn deflection placed well from a pass in the corner. NO CHANCE.
no softies

Ben Bishop - 2 goals on 36 shots
1st - Mike Green with a nice hard shot from far - deflects early off d-man's stick. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Justin Abdelkader with a sweet tip in from a high, harmless looking shot. NO CHANCE.
no softies

Henrik Lundqvist - 1 goal on 11 shots
1st - Patric Hornqvist puts in a soft shot on the ice. Lundqvist is transitioning from the post after deflecting a pass from the corner. B- Chance. (many let that in but many make that save too - Lundqvist included)
no softies

Antii Raanta - 3 goals on 19 shots
1st - Sidney Crosby breakaway. Top corner. Sidney. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Tom Kuhnhackl off a nice pass on a 2-on-1 slow breakaway. Tight to the post and a good foot off the ice. NO CHANCE.
3rd - Patric Hornqvist from a pass by Sidney Crosby off of Phil Kessel's butt. Raanta followed the pass and then lost the puck, which Hornqvist tapped in. if not NO CHANCE, still an A+ opportunity.
no softies

Jeff Zatkoff - 2 goals on 37 shots
1st - Derek Stepan tight to the near post (far from Zatkoff) off a sweet pass from Rick Nash. NO CHANCE.
2nd - Derek Stepan on a rebound off a crafty little shot by Dan Boyle. Boyle's shot was not very controllable by the goalie because of how Boyle released it - must save, though. Stepan's shot - NO CHANCE.
no softies

Brian Elliott - 0 goals on 35 shots
no softies

Corey Crawford - 1 goal on 18 shots
1st - David Backes gets a deflection off of Trevor van Riemsdyk's stick. NO CHANCE.
no softies

About last night... 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Night One

Three games from last night. I actually watched most of all of them. Quick overview: Tampa was fast, Detroit's own zone looked lost at times; Rangers lots of weak shooting, Pens capitalized on opportunities; St. Louis looks ready, Chicago is still Chicago.

All three look to be entertaining series.

Red Wings vs Lightning - One:
Tampa Bay wins 3 - 2
Tampa Bay lead series 1 - 0
Tampa Bay impressed me with their jump on the puck - they were fast. Datsyuk never had much space. Zetterberg also, had none. The Lightning weren't dominant, though, and both teams controlled the puck in moments. Detroit will have to tighten up against Tampa's zone entries - when they gave space, the Lightning had opportunities. This should be a tight series. It will be interesting to see how Detroit adjusts to get space and time for their big names. Kucherov's first goal was a sweet blast to the top corner.

Rangers vs Penguins - One:
Pittsburgh wins 5 - 2
Pittsburgh lead series 1 - 0
The Rangers played the first period pretty solid. A late goal by the Pens hurt. I'd have to watch again, but I feel like the Rangers generated very few good scoring opportunities. They gave up huge ones. The Pens are playing confidently - they played virtually no-risk hockey and jumped up when they had openings, which the Rangers gave them plenty. Lundqvist went out after the first - he got popped in the eye by the stick of Marc Staal, a very odd situation to say the least. Raanta played well as the backup - none of the goals were certain saves. Nash made a great pass on Stepan's first goal. The Rangers will need big games by someone every night, if they expect to win any against this Pens team.

Blackhawks vs Blues - One:
St. Louis win 1 - 0 in first OT
St. Louis lead series 1 - 0
This is playoff hockey at its best. Who needs goal-scoring!? Both sides had good chances. Brian Elliot, goalie for the Blues, said it well - the goalies played patiently, making the shooters decide where to put the puck first. This is usually a best case scenario for a team - when the goalies play patient and positional - the skaters just keep shot quality down and the goalies don't make guesses. St. Louis had good control and kept Kane and Toews contained mostly. Panarin had a great chance in the third (I think) but Elliot was solid on it and the shot hit him in the shoulder. Chicago didn't have Duncan Keith.

For another perspective...

Give this a look:
"eye-test" vs analytics

It is interesting. I think the eye-test is still being Analyticalized. I mean, if you asked me to rate a team on those four pieces and then use those ratings in an algorithm based on how important I thought those pieces are...well, that is analysis. The eye-test would be to also ask me who I thought was a better team at the end of the season. But still a cool way to use opinions.

I find that many experts only watch their team. So even the eye-test falters here. There should also be a weight on "How many times have you seen this team play?"

My eye-test ended with the same two teams the analytics ended with...just sayin'.

Playoff Preview - just in the nick of time, eh!

Work always gets in the way.

I had good intentions of going through each team and saying what it will take for them to get to the finals. I wanted to go through team stats and weigh their recent play. This is the toughest Stanley Cup playoff to call in a while. No one stands out as an easy favorite - EVERY team has shown areas of weakness, which means matchups are key. There is a lot of data out there and a lot of good analysis. Despite my negative feelings for a lot of the new analytics, I do like the data. The analytics/conclusions are puffed up, but the data is interesting. Especially situational breakdowns of shots and goals.

Welp, damn work gets in the way. So, as a consolation, i'm just gonna give my gut feelings on each team and then try to watch every game I can.

Starting tonight! The real season begins - first team to 16 wins.

Weighing the Season

Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Chicago, St Louis and San Jose

These teams all put in good streaks at different times in the season. So when these guys are healthy, play their game, and play it well - they beat anyone (except each other, right! Nice thing in the playoffs - someone HAS TO win)

If every team plays to their potential, I can't see anyone outplaying the Caps on both ends of the ice. Push the puck on these guys and they are going to get easy goals. Next are the Pens and the Ducks and St Louis is right there too. The Caps, though, have not played that solid since around the trade deadline.

Pittsburgh is the hottest team and the offensive system is overwhelming. Anaheim is close but better balanced and St Louis brings the most depth overall though without any proven playoff performers.

The Kings might be the most difficult to play against, but the offense is not the focus of this group - which is fine if they control their end as they have in the past.

Dallas has the weakest defense and is probably the most top-heavy team. They will have to get scoring form other lines than their numero uno with Jamie Benn.

San Jose is certainly talented. Logan Couture will have to be a force and Joel Ward will have to at least be noticed.

Weighing History

Los Angeles, Chicago, Anaheim, and Pittsburgh

These are the only ones to have gotten the 16 Ws in the past decade or so. Each team still has some or even a lot of those Cup team cores. And I can see scenarios where any of them win the Cup. Pittsburgh has the easiest road to the finals.

(Detroit has some of the core that won the Cup in '08, but Nicklas Lidstrom was a huge piece and not replaced really. So I am not including them and not giving them a lot of chance)

Washington, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Jose

The other side of the story - History has not smiled on these organizations. Washington looks very much like the choke-type team history has painted them to be. They finished the season with maybe only one or two dominant showings. Dallas is similar although they seemed to tighten up in the right way the last three weeks or so - going 9-2-0 to close the season. St Louis has to have someone stand up for them - unless Hitchcock can pull off what the Bruins did a fews seasons ago - roll 4 lines, control the defensive zone and transition efficiently (if so, one of their two goalies will have an awesome run - think Conn Smythe). San Jose can play but they never beat the tougher, grittier teams - this version is different - Burns, Couture and Joel Ward are tough and Joe Pavelski has the right mental attitude.

Philadelphia and both New York teams

These three teams don't win the cup regularly, but they have ruined better teams' chances often. I don't see the Rangers pulling that off this season, but Philly and the Isles certainly can.

Weighing the Teams (according to how it "SHOULD" go)
The first eight out...
New York Rangers - this Ranger team is limping. And even when they are healthy and playing well, they lack some of the things they were able to do in the previous years. Their defense is showing holes and they aren't able to keep the puck in the offensive zone as they have in the last few season. They have to have a hot hand - someone that is putting the puck in unsavable spots efficiently. That is where they got most of their wins this season and they will have to do it to go far. Further, the Pens are the worst possible first round matchup.

Philadelphia - This is actually my dark horse pick. They are tough and talented and with Gostisbehere solidifying that defense - they don't get stuck in their end as often. Still, its hard for me to imagine the Flyers getting past the Pens, if they do beat the Caps.

Tampa Bay - No Stamkos - No Cup...probably no second round. This is a resilient team and they are quick. Detroit could be the right matchup for them in the first round. Hedman and Stralman will keep them in games, but without Stamkos, it will be even harder to get the timely easy goals.

New York Islanders - I don't respect this team as much as I do the Flyers. They are very similar but I the Isles give up more quality chances. Still, they can beat Florida and if so they get in the conference finals. But that is as far as I can see them going.

Minnesota - the Wild have never really put much together this year. They have some solid players and depth. But really, are their forwards much better than Ottawa's? This team is going to have to get scoring the older guys to get by Dallas. If Devan Dubnyk G and that defense can protect the net Dallas is susceptible to giving up goals in bunches, and Minnesota may sneak into the second round. I don't think so.

Chicago - Don't get me wrong, the Blackhawks could win it all. But I think if St. Louis plays that game they can play with depth, Chicago won't be able to keep up. I think we will see Darling enter at least one game. That said, Kane has as sweet a set of hands as anyone in the game and his back-hander is vicious. Toews can carry things efficiently at both ends. Keith and Seabrook can log large minutes. Coach Q has ridden these boys into the finals before, so St. Louis has no easy task.

Nashville - I like this team and want to pull for them. But they will have to show something they haven't in order to get past Anaheim. Their only hope will be Weber putting in a lot of minutes and Johansen or Neal getting playoff Jeff Carter-like finishing skills. Forsberg is playing great and the third line will have to be on their game.

San Jose - The Sharks could represent the west in the Finals. COULD. They are definitely tougher than they have ever been. They have top-end talent. They have speedy youngsters. Their defensemen are underrated a bit. They have to get on the Kings early and they can't get soft with them. I am always suspect of Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton being physical-ed out of the games.

The next four to go...
Detroit - The Red Wings are in their 24th straight playoff, it's impressive. The down-side though, they have no top-tier youngster from the draft. Don't get me wrong, Detroit's later round picks have been consistently good and thus they continue to compete. Their aging wonders, Zetterberg and Datsyuk could get them past Florida, if they do get by the Isles. Detroit is a solid team.

Dallas - Dallas can't keep the puck out of their net. And I think St. Louis will be able to stifle their offense enough. If Seguin comes back and he and Benn turn it on as they started the season, they can get to the finals. But in a seven game series, that Dallas defense/system might be exposed too much and exploited too often for the offense to overcome.

Washington - The Caps are in a tough spot. Philadelphia will not be easy for them. And then to have to beat a very cohesive Pittsburgh team. Washington has to play like they did in the beginning of the season ...or like they would later in the season AFTER giving up early goals. They can't give up the early goals. They can beat the Pens, but the way the two teams were playing at season's end, I don't feel confident. If they beat the Flyers in the first round...I may change my mind.

Anaheim - Los Angeles and Chicago just have the personnel and style to keep this very good team out of the finals. Anaheim will have to counter and respond to Los Angeles' goals. They can't win if they let LA play with leads. Anaheim wins this round and I think they win the Cup.

The last two going home...
Florida - It will be a great story if they get this far - Jagr will have to be a major part of their successes. Overall, I think the Panthers are too similar to the Predators. Not deep enough, too many holes, but some solid players and well coached. It should be an easy road into the conference finals, but the Pens will just be too much for them. Florida will have to close the gaps in their end better than they have all season. If Barkov steps up and someone scores other than Jagr - Huberdeau and Bjugstad for example, they have a chance.

St. Louis - It will be tragic to see this team once again come so close and not get to the finals. St. Louis has the pieces and truly it will be as close as just Alexander Steen having a hot series or Jaden Schwartz or Paul Stastny...or Shattenkirk. This team can do it...but, I have to lean on history.

The runner-up...
Pittsburgh - I think the Kings (and a lot of the west teams) will just make it too difficult for the Pens to score. If Malkin comes back and the Pens prove to have two high-efficiency lines, things change. They will have to play tough in order to continually break through against the Kings.

Stanley Cup Champs.
Los Angeles Kings - The Kings have everything. The biggest issue will be not coming out strong in the first round. This team can be beaten. They aren't as deep as they have been in the other Cup runs. This means guys like Vincent Lecavalier needs to be noticeable and Lucic will be a force and Carter or Toffoli will get hot a couple of games. Kopitar and Doughty will have to make it tough and there can't be any holes in the bottom 3 d-men's games.

I'm not guaranteeing any of this, but if every team plays to their potential, this is how it should fall out.

I think there are 7 legit teams - LA, Washington, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, St Louis, Chicago and San Jose. Philadelphia is my surprise pick. Dallas could, but that would surprise me a lot, I just don't believe in their team defense.

I can't wait for the puck(s) to drop!

PDO, Corsi, the Eye-Test and the New York Rangers

Here is an article from BlueshirtBanter about a way to fix the Rangers and give hope to their Playoff chances.

It's a long article with a bunch of New Stat fluff.
PDO - simply add a team's shooting percentage at even strength to their save percentage at even strength. This supposedly shows how LUCKY/UNLUCKY your team is.

This is wrong. It truly removes the idea that a team and a player in particular sets up genuinely higher quality chances in a given moment. These moments are usually not relying on LUCK at all. It is a targeted, skilled play. And in most goal events, that is the case - the players had clear intention and clear execution.

Go look at Buffalo's second goal against the Rangers, Eichel to O'Reilly. It was a sweet pass and perfect finish. No goalie saves that. No luck involved. Eichel forces Antti Raanta to stay on the post. O'Reilly finishes with a quick shot - it actually should have been placed closer to the post...but the speed still makes it basically unsavable.

Is there luck in sports? Of course. But the reason the guys that are on the ice/field/court/whatever is that they rely less on luck and more on skill.

Is there luck in hockey? Again, of course. And especially for the goalies. These guys are basically guessing where the bullet is going without any time to really watch it go by or hit them. Goalies are relying on good positioning and bad shooting more than anything else. But again, the goalies that are in the NHL are relying less on luck than on good positioning - the only real thing a goalie controls.

Corsi - also simple, this is the percentage of even-strength shots your team took out of both teams' even-strength shots.

The idea is that Corsi can give an indication of who controls the puck the most by assuming the team with the most shots had the most puck control.

Again, a very weak assumption. Not to mention, the team that can create a shot that goes in the goal has better puck control than a team that just takes shots.

Don't get me wrong, in most cases and especially when there is a dominant team, shot counts will usually reflect the domination. But it is far from clearing up the story of what happened on the ice.

Ultimately, I think the point of the article is two-fold.
 - the Rangers need to be lucky! (in other words, put more pucks in the net on fewer shots)
 - the Rangers need to not use the guys that have bad Corsi scores (meaning that while player A is on the ice, the team should get more shots for than against.) This is mainly a knock on Dan Girardi and Marc Staal.

But really, it doesn't say much. How do you get luckier? I don't know and I would assume no one knows...luck is just that, uncontrollable. So no action required to achieve this, I guess.

As for Dan Girardi and Marc Staal, again that isn't an answer. What has changed in their games this year? If nothing, then how were these two such able parts of the past few seasons when the Rangers were able to lock teams down in the third period? I think both have the skillsets to be effective. My hope is that come playoffs, they will lock their games down and return to keep it simple in their own end and keep getting in the way of clean shot attempts.

And as a point about this Corsi stat thing being misunderstood fluff - Dan Girardi is the worst Ranger on the team for Corsi...but his +/- (which is goal differential at even-strength) is top 3 for defenseman (top 3 overall). So I guess he is just really lucky? If so, then maybe we need him on the ice more?

I just get annoyed at this type of dumb analysis.

Alain Vigneault reveals tactics

Wow. Fantastic article on BlueShirtBanter about Alain Vigneault's twist for this season. He is quoted telling about how he learned so much from that Vancouver series in 2011 and how that has mixed with what he's learned the last couple of playoff runs here with Rangers. So this season he is trying something new and he thinks it will have this team in the Cup finals again, but with much different results.

It sounds cool.

He said something about how guys like Kevin Bieksa (defenseman back on that 2011 team that had quite the season that year, becoming a pretty stalwart player in his own end) and Dan Hamuis, although great that season, weren't ready for certain types of players. He said it was somewhat his fault because he protected those guys throughout the season by shifting them off quickly against speedier forward lines as any coach would.

He said he really didn't know how to train players to play against types of players that just beat them regularly, like Brad Marchand versus Bieksa. But over the summer after last season's exit against the Lightning, Vigneault said he had an epiphany.

"I'm gonna flip my matchups this year." That simple.

He said his plan all season was, after getting the guys playing his system well - however long it took, which wasn't much as the Rangers came out hot to start the season, he was going to do his best to keep guys playing against the other teams' guys that would exploit his players' biggest weaknesses.

He says that you take a guy like Ryan McDonagh and find that there isn't anyone he can't play against, really. But at one point early in the season, I started playing him in front of the net against stronger bigger players. He didn't like it and struggled for a few games. But soon, he changed his tactics and played these guys as well as he played faster smaller forwards. It was awesome to witness.

But then take Dan Girardi. He said he's hearing all the negative commenting on this guy. But it is unfounded. Vigneault said he is purposely giving Girardi near impossible assignments for his skill set. Sounds crazy, but Vigneault claims Girardi has grown the most out of his season-long experiment and will be a beast in the playoffs. "The fans will love him again!"

AV gives some great examples of some specific games for guys like Girardi, Klein, and Yandle. He talks about some of the development work with the forwards too.

It's pretty insightful, to say the least. And it gives me some hope for the Rangers in the playoffs.

Read it here.

Ghost Bear, another reason to doubt the impact of goalies?

Shayne Gostisbehere is a new defenseman for the Philadelphia Flyers. He has been in the system and has more of history than just this partial season with the Flyers: read here for more.

The Flyers prior to Gostisbehere joining them were around 5-8-3. They were an up-and-down performing team, I think two of the wins were back-to-back shutouts by Michael Neuvirth. Many of the losses, the opponents scored 4 or more. With the forward depth they have, more was expected out of this team.

Enter Gostisbehere - not a better goalie nor has one goalie "stepped up" over the other. Mason and Neuvirth have been swapped plenty. And despite the wins increasing for the Flyers, to the point that they are now in control of their playoff destiny - tied with Detroit for the final playoff spot in the East with a game in hand over the Red Wings. But more importantly, they have been playing very good hockey. Going 31-16-10, 29 of the wins with Gostisbehere in the lineup.

First 16 games. 5 wins 13pts. Next 57 games - 31 wins 72pts.

Hockey is largely a system game. The game is played mostly in the space between the goals and in most cases the team that controls that space wins the game, regardless of the man in net. Philadelphia is showing to be a great example of this - add this smart, opportunistic mobile d-man and they are winning impressively. Goalies can change a moment but until shooters and playmakers get more credit for creating those moments and for failing those moments, I have to say Goalies are overrated.

Or maybe Shayne Gostisbehere is...it can't be both.

The Ken Hitchcock system

Not sure if you are paying attention to the St. Louis Blues, but they have just put 4 shutout games together. Well, the credit goes to the goalie, right?  The article will start with the goalie's name and then go on about how great he played and won the game for them. After the first three shutouts, that is exactly what was happening. Brian Elliott was geting all-world goalie praise..

The Blues coach, Ken Hitchcock, makes a bold move in the fourth game - he starts the other goalie. And this other goalie goes on to another Blues' shutout. And this shutout was against one of the best teams this season.

Hitchcock has throughout his career found goalies that get more shutouts with his teams than with others. And now he is doing it with two goalies.

Most likely it is the system that Hitchcock puts in place. They play tight positional defense with the forwards committed to own-zone coverages. And it has worked for the goalies everywhere he's gone.

This season Hitchcock has been using both of his goalies, Brian Elliott and Jake Allen. And both are putting up shutouts. For perspective, Ken Hitchcock's two goalies have 10 shutouts - Allen with 6 and Elliott with the other 4. Henrik Lundqvist, the New York Ranger's future Hall of Fame goalie only has 4 shutouts this season. Are both of these goalies really that much better than Lundqvist?

When goalies get praised for shutouts and the coach and his system go unmentioned, I have no choice but to say Goalie are Overrated.

Experiences...my first, seeng Jack Eichel

I love hockey. For me, it has all the things that make sports great - finesse, speed, great hand-eye events, team work, strength and toughness. And it has those moments...the type of moments that stick in your mind for days or years...or just forever. And it culminates every season with a championship that leaves the winner not only jubilant for victory but also for thankfulness that it is over - the exhaustion, hidden by the focus on winning, finally allowed to surface and be felt.

Jack Eichel embodies all of this. I've watched him numerous times online and I see those moments. Potentially, in his future, I see ALL of those moments in him.

He has the Jonathan Toews-like skill of being n the right spot and able to finish it. He has sweet hands - think Mario Lemieux-type length being used in that Mario smooth way. He is big - think Rick Nash or Jaromir Jagr - ok, slightly smaller. And he has that other thing - that Gretzky-like awareness - that chess-like breakdown of the game allowing him to be steps ahead of the opposition and the play.

He's only 19. He is green but I can see where all he has now could put him in that small list of greats that have played this sport I love.

So it goes without saying, I had to see this kid play live.

My first impression was his size. He's only 6'2" - not huge. But his presence with the other players in the skate around was noticeable.

As a side-note: I had read somewhere in an interview of a teammate that Eichel brought a humor and lightness to the lockerroom and team n a positive way. In the warm up skate, I saw him joke around with Evander Kane in that very way - it was cool.

In this tilt, Eichel was lined with Sam Reinhart and Zemgus Girgensons, two other of the many Sabres' youngsters. (This team coached by Dan Bylsma has a bright future)

From the start, the Canes were effective at taking away space from this line. It lasted the entire game.

Eichel and company were able to generate a couple of opportunities but for the most part this line was not very effective offensively and worse defensively.

Eichel played well...for a 19 year old. His skating is so efficient, he almost looks like he isn't working. His movements are very smooth, like he wastes no motion. Offensively, he puts himself in spots that are ahead of the play. When he has the puck, he seems slow but the Canes' players seemed slower - his subtle moves aren't slow, just efficient and smooth; the defense is kept guessing, almost frozen.

On two occasions, Eichel, with the puck, made rushes to the net. On one it was from goalie Cam Ward's left, the defenseman on the inside, Eichel moving from the outside in. The other was from Ward's right and similar. Neither rush amounted to much, but Eichel's deceptive speed was threatening and his strength on the puck obvious - this reminded me of a young Rick Nash.

A few other times Eichel actually controlled the puck in the Canes' zone were unproductive but not without skill. Again subtle stick-handling allowed Eichel to put passes into dangerous spots.

Eichel was fun to watch. And even though he didn't have a lot of chances - the Canes' played his line very well. - he still stood out. His play awareness is special and I look forward to watching him develop in this league.

The one catch - either he is far ahead of the game or his own zone play leaves a lot to be desired. On multiple occasions he seemed out of place or uncommitted - or perhaps just committed to offense, making himself ready to turn it the other way. Regardless, the Canes were able to control the puck with his line on the ice - often creating decent chances.

Overall, if Eichel never improves on his own-zone play, this kid will be fun to watch for years. If he does improve, as most greats do, he has a chance to be the greatest of his era. Well, if Connor McDavid lets him.

Big Games on tap

We have some pivotal games tonight, but let's start with the most important game:
Buffalo at Carolina
That's right. It's important because me and my daughter will be there :) Other than that, it is less than meaningless - except for Jack Eichel.

St. Louis at San Jose
Both teams are battling for playoff seeds. Both teams are having an impressive March - Sharks are 7-3-0, Blues 6-2-0. True meaning of the game? Really only if both teams are playing hard, it will be a good indication of what to expect from them in the playoffs. St. Louis is deep and it will be interesting to see how San Jose does against a team like this, if they get down. The inverse is true as well, can San Jose keep St. Louis from notching a goal if they get a lead. So many players for both teams can make a difference.

Dallas at Chicago
These teams are not playing dominant hockey. Both have a shot at winning their divisions. They have opposite problems - one team can score, the other can eliminate scoring. Should be a fun game. Dallas is without Tyler Seguin - so it will be interesting to see who steps up - Jamie Benn can make anyone a bit better.

Detroit at Tampa Bay
Detroit is hanging on by the skin of their collective teeth...or maybe just the skin of Justin Abdelkader's. Philly wants them to lose. I know one Philly fan that probably wants them to win - because Philly probably won't do much in the playoffs and he wants better draft position. Regardless, Tampa Bay should be hungry for a win here - they need to start showing some consistency down the stretch as they gear up for the playoffs.

Los Angeles at Minnesota
This is for the wild what the above game is for Detroit. Gotta win this. It won't be easy against an LA team that is coming off a pretty ugly loss to Nashville last night. The Kings hadn't given up five goals in a game since February 11th - a loss to the Islanders. Remove Anaheim and NEW JERSEY from LA's schedule and they are 14-3-1 since the all-star break. New Jersey...it's weird, but matchups matter.

Anaheim, Washington, and Philadelphia have kinda "must-win" games. Can't win them all, but should!

The West: what remains...

Central
St. Louis: 9gms (5h 4a). 6 vs PO teams. 7-3-0 last 10. current points: 93. projected: 106
Dallas: 9gms (4h 5a). 7 vs PO teams. 5-3-2 last 10. current points: 95. projected: 105
Chicago: 9gms (4h 5a). 3 vs PO teams. 4-4-2 last 10. current points: 91. projected: 104

Pacific
Los Angeles: 11gms (5h 6a). 4 vs PO teams. 7-2-1 last 10. current points: 93. projected: 109
Anaheim: 11gms (4h 7a). 4 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 89. projected: 104
San Jose: 10gms (7h 3a). 4 vs PO teams. 7-3-0 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 102

Wildcard
Nashville: 10gms (7h 3a). 7 vs PO teams. 6-2-2 last 10. current points: 85. projected: 98
Colorado: 9gms (5h 4a). 7 vs PO teams. 6-4-0 last 10. current points: 80. projected: 91

in the hunt
Minnesota: 9gms (6h 3a). 5 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 79. projected: 91

* Jaden Schwartz has been great since coming back from injury - 3 goals and 11 points in the 8 games of March. But this team is getting scoring from all lines. Only three players are minus in March and that is only minus 2.

* Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza have been trying to lead the way in March. Benn's 10pts and Spezza's 8 goals lead the team in March's  9 games. When your top scorers are all minus players, though, something isn't right. Spezza's at +2 other than him, the top guys are hurting the team.

* Chicago's core guys are playing decent but still the entire is struggling to score. Patrick Kane's 3 goals and 7 points lead the team in their 9 March games.

* Los Angeles is playing that Cup style. Lead by Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter, the editions of Milan Lucic and Vincent Lecavalier keep the Kings difficult to defend. Kopitar's 12 points in 9 games and his 6 goals are leading the team.

* The Ducks are still playing their best hockey. Good timing. Ryan Getzlaf is nowhere close to leading in points and Corey Perry sits fourth in goals for March. Ryan Kesler has been leading the way in solid two-way play - 10 points in 10 games and plus 7. Jakob Silfverberg and Jamie McGinn are leading in goals with five a piece. This is a tough team.

* The Sharks are playing well. Joe Thornton - 10pts 7 assists - is making the passes as usual and Brent Burns - 5 goals and 11 points - is continuing to have magic from the blueline. Joe Pavelski also has 5 goals in the 10 games of March.

* James Neal is getting hot - 6 goals and 9 points in the 9 games of March. Overall, it is a full team effort. This is a deep team, but I don't think as deep as St. Louis.

* Colorado's Matt Dechene and Mikkel Boedker are somewhat productive on yet another team that is struggling to score. Gabriel Landeskog just returned from a three game suspension - he might be able to add more scoring.

* Minnesota has the streakiest scorers of any team in the league, except maybe Ottawa. Guys like Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter get points in bunches and then disappear. Niederreiter's 6 goals and 10 points have been important in March. The play of both Erik Haula and Matt Dumba has been just as integral. Minnesota has an easier schedule than Colorado and will have to play at least as good in order to make the playoffs.

The East: What remains...

Metropolitan
Washington: 11gms (5h 6a). 6 vs PO teams. 6-3-1 last 10. current points: 107. projected: 122
Pittsburgh: 10gms (4h 6a). 5 vs PO teams. 8-2-0 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 103
New York Islanders: 12gms (8h 4a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-3-2 last 10. current points: 85. projected: 100

Atlantic
Florida: 10gms (4h 6a). 3 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 89. projected: 100
Tampa Bay: 10gms (6h 4a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 87. projected: 97
Boston: 9gms (4h 5a). 5 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 86. projected: 95

Wild cards
New York Rangers: 10gms (7h 3a). 6 vs PO teams. 4-4-2 last 10. current points: 88. projected: 99
Detroit: 10gms (5h 5a). 4 vs PO teams. 5-4-1 last 10. current points: 83. projected: 95

in the hunt
Philadelphia: 12gms (5h 7a). 6 vs PO teams. 7-2-1 last 10. current points: 80. projected: 94


* the Caps have gotten only 2 goals from Alexandre Ovechkin in their last 10. If he's injured, this bad. Otherwise, it may be a positive spin on the Caps getting those three loses.

* the Pens have been getting stellar production from Sidney Crosby. But Carl Hagelin is certainly helping things. Patric Hornqvist and Kris Letang are playing well too. If Evgeny Malkin returns from injury and only adds - this team could win the East in the playoffs.

* Rick Nash has done nothing in his 5 games back...and not much more for the season. Ugh. Ryan McDonagh is doing all he can. But this team needs scoring. For all the negative feelings on Dan Girardi he's not a negative plus/minus in March. Marc Staal, Dan Boyle and Keith Yandle are -4, -4, and -12 respectively. The Rangers are not getting goals without giving up easier chances for the opponents.

* Florida is getting production from a few different sources. Vincent Trochek and Jussi Jokinen are leading in March with 11 and 10 points respectively. They are similar to the Rangers though, when they go after goals, they often give up more.

* Tampa Bay is getting no scoring from the third and fourth lines - the top two lines are getting some scoring but it will take another line in there and Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman will have to step up too.

* Brad Marchand was on a tear, but he's 2 goals and 6points in the last 10 games. Patrice Bergeron has been consistent with 5g/8pts in this time. Zdeno Chara is still putting in big minutes but no scoring - showing signs of aging?

* the Isles are in a good position, but they will have to beat the lesser teams. Kyle Okposo has been the leader in goals and points with 4g and 9pts in the 10 games of March. John Tavares is playing well but only 6pts in these 10 games.

* Detroit is struggling to score. Justin Abdelkader is leading them with 7pts in March. No one has more than 3 goals in this stretch. The lack of depth and aging skilled players might have caught them. If Philly continues their strong run, Detroit is out of the playoffs.

* The Flyers have spread out the scoring. And at the same time they aren't letting a lot of easy goals by. Still I expect Claude Giroux to score more - only 5 pts in the 8 games of March. Regardless, things are going right for them. Wayne Simmonds and Sean Couturier keep make this team very tough to play against.

Brendan Morrow.

Brendan Morrow.
Always respected the guy. He played heart-on all the time.

Read his retirement letter.

Great perspective on who these NHLers are.117goals and 72 assists in a 60 game season at 15 years old. He was a good NHLer, mainly a guy who provided jump and leadership in tight games. Cool to see he is just a big kid, even now.

*Great story on Marty Turco in there.

Time for a little update on the league...

We are coming into the final ten games of the season for each team. Some teams will play strong and carry that in to the playoffs. Some will take it easy and wake up in that first round. Some will battle for a better playoff spot only to get dusted in the opening series and go on to the golf course.

The West is full of teams putting it together late. The Kings, the Ducks, the Blues, the Predators, and the Sharks are all playing strong hockey. They all have that ability to generate a late goal when needed or if they get a lead, they can exploit the open attack from the other team. That is a good playoff combination and these teams are showing they have it. Ducks, Kings and Sharks are a notch above, I think. The Blues are deep and will have to win on four lines just making it too difficult for other teams' lesser lines. The Preds, I need to watch this team more.

Chicago and Dallas are on the other side of this - they seem to not get up in games and when they do they struggle against an opponent's constant pressure. Dallas troubles me more so than the Blackhawks, but the Blackhawks still will need to play better once the playoffs start.

Minnesota and Colorado are playing inspired hockey. I'm not positive which of these two is going to claim that final spot in the West. Both teams have holes - the Wild just aren't deep offensively; the Avalanche don't always play in their own end well.

The East is just ugly. Washington has been playing cooler than great since the All-star break. In February, they would give goals early and then claw back into the game for a win or at least a point. Lately, they are just not able to get back in a game without giving up another goal, or more. This doesn't bode well for the playoffs. Still, the team is talented and their defense is better than it has ever been. I think the Pens in the first round could kill them. Otherwise, if they get comfortable and win that first round, they should win the East.

Teams that bother me - Tampa Bay, Florida and the Islanders. They each have high-end talent. They have good defensemen and really no personnel issues. But they are missing something and lose to teams they shouldn't.

The Rangers and the Red Wings will have a tough time getting out of the first round.

Boston and Philly are interesting. Philly is playing hard and mostly solid. Boston is still hanging on to that core from years past, with a group of hard-working players around them. I can't see either of these getting past the second round...but they could upset someone in the first.

The Pens are the only team in the east playing like they are ready for the playoffs to start. They have six in a row after an impressive beating of the Capitals tonight (6-2 final). This is without Evgeny Malkin. The defense is still not great, but they are mobile and Trevor Daley is a question mark for me, he might be good enough for this Pens team. They only need a little better than they have had.

Now all of this said - the playoffs are a lot about match-ups. For instance, I think Pittsburgh vs Washington in the first round is bad for Washington. The Rangers against Tampa Bay or the Islanders is not good for the Rangers. But the Rangers might pull it off against Boston or Philly or Detroit and maybe even the Pens.

Anyway we'll see what the match-ups are soon enough, I guess.

Hockey without a goalie? Warriors closing in on the best regular season record EVER.

Another game means another win, if you are the Golden State Warriors. I don't follow enough basketball, but I will be watching the NBA playoffs. And I do follow Steph Curry and the general state of the NBA. And I do see something new coming out of this Curry-led Warriors style.

The Jordan..er...Chicago Bulls had a few dominant seasons and put up the best record ever, losing only 10 games in 1996 (ugh TWENT YEARS AGO!? feeling old here!). That's a 87.8% winning percentage. Against the best men of that era.

The Warriors are 60-6 after blowing the New Orleans Pelicans out last night. 60-6. That's better than 9 out of every 10 games...against the best players of this era. 90.9%. That means, this group shouldn't lose two more games. WOW. 75-7 potentially. Just unreal.

I don't know NBA basketball like I do hockey, but this is not a weak NBA. The talent level is high and spread out. There are a lot of teams with potential to play mighty good basketball. So for the Warriors to be leveling every team so consistently amazes me. This is a team that will change the way basketball is defended...or maybe rules get changed, who knows.

I get excited at where the game will be in five or ten years. In Jordan's wake came tons of athletic shooting guards and small forwards throwing the ball down with force or drawing men over and making the sweet pass for an easy bucket - expanding on Jordan in different ways.

What follows Curry!?

Will others be banging out threes as regularly? Bigger guys nailing the three and drawing defenses out? Using that space to go in with acrobatic huge dunks? Who knows!

Honestly, I won't be thinking about the future once the playoffs start. I'll be watching the NOW and enjoying it. Curry and the Warriors are fun to watch.

The action last night...was action-filled. (Goalies are overrated edition)

No game by game thing here, just some points from last night.

The Islanders! That was a nice come-back win against Florida. If Kyle Okposo plays in that next gear and gets space, he is a game changer. He started the third period scoring. Getting 3 in under ten minutes - nice. Bad for the Rangers, though. Go watch that Josh Bailey goal - I still don't get how that went in (but I may have missed a deflection there...even though I did look for it).

The Panthers. Um. Not good. It is just one game - it happens to the best teams. But I think there is something more systemic here. Some of their better defensive players were out there. They will have to play in a different gear come playoff time - this shows signs of an early exit, if not. 40minutes of solid hockey is not enough.

Chicago where have you gone!? This is two in a row where I have watched them give up space in their own zone. Dallas and Los Angeles don't need much help to hurt a team. Is Duncan Keith nursing an injury? Can't ever blow this team off in the playoffs, but as things sit in these last few games (0-2-1 current streak), they have to improve in their own zone.

The Kings. Tonight against the Stars will show a lot of how they believe in themselves. But this game was near perfection by all. Jonathan Quick made some good saves, i'm sure. But the Kings didn't let much happen in front of him. Drew Doughty is only 26 years old. Vinny Lecavalier looks to be invigorated - still old, but at this point you have to admire his ability to just fit in and do what he can.

As a note: Want to see why I believe goalies are overrated? Go watch just the highlights of that game. The Blackhawks got 7 more shots on goal. Watch what they claim are tough saves by King's goalie Jonathan Quick, who gets ALL WORLD credit for the win. There is one, where he gives up a JUICY rebound. Why wasn't it put in???? Because a defenseman had the Chicago player, who was in perfect position for that rebound kinda tied up...as in totally eliminated. Another save he makes is down low - most goalies make that save. Now watch what Corey Crawford deals with. The first goal was Kris Versteeg on a rebound in the center - untouched. The second was a Milan Lucic goal - sweetly placed. Why was Crawford back in the net? Anze Kopitar was free on the far-side of the net - Crawford had to play the potential pass as well. Vincent Lecavalier's goal??? Geesh! Dustin Brown puts a sweet dangle on the guy. And the last goal, again Crawford is feeling helpless and playing back in the net - almost looks like he lost confidence in his team on that one. And that last goal is the only - the ONLY one that another goalie might have saved - might have played differently. Quick was lucky to be on the other end of those plays. You won't hear that from anyone else and that is why I have to say Goalie are overrated.

St. Louis Blues! C'mon. You cannot lose this game. Calgary certainly can play with nothing to lose - all offense hockey, but you can't do this. I have been believing in the Ken Hitchcock coached team. And honestly I can give an excuse here as well...the Blues just weren't expecting a no quit Calgary squad shooting all-out. But this could be a sign of one of those DEATH-in-the-Playoffs weaknesses (a trait of a lot Ken Hitchcock coached teams). Nah. I don't believe it. They will rebound from this. One positive, the continued strong play of Paul Stastny -  go watch his first goal, SICK!

Note: I always get a chuckle when the goalie that was praised so so much in the previous game gets SHELLED in his next game. Jake Allen gets pulled but it didn't matter. Anders Nilsson looked unhelped as well. Watch the goals - none are truly the goalie's fault and that goes both ways. Goalies look foolish if their teams don't play defense and that is why I have to say...(refer to the above note)

Nashville gets a good win. A must-win, after losing their previous two to non-playoff teams. I am a believer in Peter Laviolette and his next three games will be good indication as to how this team stacks up for the playoffs. There is a lot of talent here. (next three are: Islanders, Capitals, Kings)

Anaheim did what St. Louis should have done. Played 60 minutes of lockdown hockey. Watch the goals on this one - just some good passing and finishing. The next two games will be fun to watch - Rangers and Bruins - if Anaheim gets wins, they have no real test until an April 3rd game versus Dallas, a run that could put them in first place overall.

Let's look at the games from last night...

I didn't get to watch much of any of them. But in the highlights and after watching some of key moments in the Blues-Ducks game there is a lot to take away.

Pittsburgh needed a solid win. Fleury gets his 350th win.
The Pens have to beat teams like the Blue Jackets. They did. The Blue Jackets are up and down. The Pens handled them solidly. Good win. However, the Pens aren't showing dominance. This is a team that can blow a 3-1 series lead, nothing new there.
3-2 Pittsburgh win.

Philadelphia gets a win. Tampa Bay loses.
The Flyers are playing as well as they have all season. The goalie tandem is working for them. That will be interesting in the playoffs - mental weakness gets exploited, can either goalie step up or will either goalie just crack after getting pulled? It doesn't matter as yet, because the Flyers aren't in the playoffs - but they are certainly playing their asses off. Detroit and the Pens better not slack off...
3-1 Philadelphia win/

Philly has a tough set of games coming up - five straight playoff teams. Beating the Lightning twice in a row means little if they can't win at least 3 of the next five. Especially the game against Detroit on Tuesday.

The Lightning have lost three in a row here - two against the Flyers. The offense is streaky for this group. We know the talent is there. But are they as solid in their end as they were last year? The rest of March is not terrible. Let's see how the Lightning do.

Ducks create Puck Luck for Blues.
A Hampus Lindholm errant pass creates an easy opportunity for Patrick Berglund to give the Blues a two goal cushion in the third. This comes after Vladimir Tarasenko makes a handsy play to block a Ducks' own-zone pass and then control the loose puck to Jaden Schwartz, who puts a sweet pass to Jori Lehtera. Lehtera, untouched, places the pucks swiftly in the net. A very even game gets broken open...because the Ducks just weren't lucky...errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr....stop the record.
5-2 St. Louis win.

Both team have positives to take away here. The St. Louis forecheck was working and they rolled four lines effectively. The Ducks, other than those two big lapses, had a lot of good breakouts and were still able to create chances in the Blues' end. This game makes you want the Playoffs to start soon!

Stars take advantage of soft Blackhawks play.
The Stars need this win. Lindy Ruff becomes the fifth winningest coach in league history on it. But more importantly the Stars need some confidence. That said, Chicago has to learn from it and move on. I don't think Chicago players got even a stick on any of the Stars' goals. Good puck movement on the Stars part but the Hawks didn't make it tough on them. Tyler Seguin gets on the board after a six game goal drought - long for him!
5-2 Dallas win.

Dallas has a tough March ahead. St Louis, Los Angeles, Islanders, Tampa, Chicago and San Jose await them. We will certainly know if this team is playoff ready.

Chicago has struggled a bit against the top teams. Regardless, they should be feared come playoff time.

Analytics: Watching vs Numbers

here ya go, give this a read: Analytics and the Ducks

Rob Vollman is definitely one of the new analytics geeks. He crunches numbers and breaks down situational stats and all that. The primary stat is shots for all of it.

This guy uses the numbers to show that the Ducks have been THIS GOOD ALL SEASON. Even though the first part of the season saw them go 1-7-2 in October, 8-4-3 in November, 6-4-1 in December, 7-3-1 in January , 12-1-1 in February and now 3-1-1 so far in March. Clearly, this team's record has transitioned throughout the season. And now with the crazy run they are on since the All-Star break 15-2-2. Vollman looks at the shot stats and concludes that the difference between the early season losses and the current hot streak is just Puck Luck.

Puck Luck?! This is what the experts are saying? Dems da bounces, lady.

Personally, I am glad the analytics groups are voicing such non-sense. Maybe they will start refining the data they track. Shot counts don't matter in any specific game. Sure they are "fun" to look at after...but they tell little on a game-by-game basis and this Rob Vollman-type "Analytics" prattling display how inadequate shots are to measure performance.

I watched the early Anaheim team and I have been watching them over the last month as well. This is not a team playing the same way they played in October. They were lost on the ice often. The d-pairings struggled and ultimately they gave up HIGH QUALITY shots. They weren't victims to Puck Luck when Ryan Getzlaf lost the puck at mid-ice during overtime, allowing a breakaway game-winning goal. It wasn't Puck Luck when teams were generating uncontested chances in the middle of the ice.

Look at their progression - Crappy start. Gradual improvement all season. This is indicative of a team learning to play their coach's style. A team adjusting to different players. Francois Beauchemin's minutes were a lot to replace, if nothing else. Or maybe it was Puck Luck.

Puck Luck says don't change anything and just do what you are doing, you'll get the bounces.

Hockey says Quality of Shots matter. If my teams sets up Tanner Glass 12 times in a game and your team sets up Corey Perry in the same situations, your team wins almost every time.

Puck Luck says it's 50/50. And this is why the New Analytics are ridiculous.

* as a note: If it's Puck Luck, why do you see any progression through the season? Luck doesn't progress...

6 games last night 5 important ones

Crunch time is upon us.

I read an article yesterday saying something about why play the last 20 games of the season because the teams that are in the playoffs at this point of the season remain in the playoffs something like 92% of the time. So just end the season now.

That rationale doesn't work for me. Statistics are great when looking at bulk data. They are not so great at predicting specific outcomes. The idea that statistics are predictive is why we find so many hockey analytics sprouting up and so many new stats that really add nothing to the sport*. This is another stat like that. The Rangers, before december, were something like 15000-0-1 when leading after two periods. Under the above rationale, why play the third period, right? Well, unfortunately for the Rangers in december the third had to be played and the Rangers lost at least a couple more than they would have.

Personally, I love this time of year. Sure some teams mail it in. But for the most part, there are men out there with pride that don't take nights off. Last night was a perfect example. All 6 games dealt with blown leads or a non-playoff team upsetting a playoff team. It was fun hockey.

I didn't get to watch all the games, but I saw a few and they were intense.

New York Islanders at Toronto:
Losing a shootout is not a terrible loss, true. But if the Islanders want to finish 2nd in the Metro division, they have to beat teams like this. Toronto's infusion of youth has added energy to their play - think Arizona at the start of the season. The Islanders got a point and played resilient but not good enough in their own end. Not 60 minute hockey.
4 - 3 Toronto in shoot-out

Chicago at St. Louis:
Two teams vying for the West point lead. Neither disappointed. This was another fantastic game between two very good teams playing all out there. I cannot wait for the seven game series of this one.
3 - 2 St. Louis in shoot-out

Nashville at Calgary:
I didn't watch this. But the Predators have been playing so well, this is not what I expected. The key is two-fold: they got a point after being down 2 in the third and they have to rebound with more wins. They face two must-wins prior to a potential battle against the Islanders. Win the two easier ones and a win against the Isles is big.
3 - 2 Calgary in overtime

Arizona at Vancouver:
This game doesn't matter. But the men on the ice still played all out. Vancouver were down two in the crazy second period before tying it before the middle session ended.
3 - 2 Vancouver in overtime

Anaheim at Colorado:
This is the last game I would have thought to be a blow-out. I didn't see much of it, but what I did see - Colorado's speed was producing great transition and break-outs. Anaheim had moments but they just weren't getting a lot of clean attempts on the net. Erik Johnson D for Colorado looked awesome at times.
3 - 0 Colorado

Washington at Los Angeles:
After a tough battle with Anaheim for two points, the Capitals jumped on the ice against the Kings last night. LA jumped on the score sheet, netting 3 in the first period. And that is what makes this Caps team a little different than the last few years - they can get back in a game against a very good team without giving up more high quality chances. It was fun to watch.
4 - 3 Los Angeles in overtime

It was a great night of hockey and I am glad we have more games ahead in the build-up to the playoffs.

* All the shot-based stats analysis is nothing better than the plus-minus stat. They bring a granularity that can be interesting but really, not every shot is equal and if that isn't factored in to the stat then it is misleading.

Now the West...

In the West.
Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago made trade deadline moves. I was blown away. They were good before...now, they are deeper and added those tight game type of guys. Not sure why I would be surprised by their management - they seem to make moves as needed every year.
WHAT REMAINS: 15 games. 7 home 8 away. 8 are current playoff teams. 2 vs STL, MIN, DAL. 1 vs LAK, BOS.
As this team gels, we will see how great they can be. They will have to be in order to clean the West and end up in the finals again. All this with Corey Crawford - the simplest goalie out there. (goalies are overrated proof :) )

Anaheim Ducks: Um. Not sure what the shift was - my guess is, they have adjusted to losing their number one d-man Francois Beauchemin and then a solid third line guy in Matt Belesky. Whatever the case - this team might be geared to beat Los Angeles and Chicago, finally. No small order, though.
WHAT REMAINS: 18 games.8 home 10 away. 7 vs current playoff teams. 2 vs WSH. 1 vs NYR, LAK, STL, BOS, DAL.
Welp, until they show differently, they won't lose many more. In a seven game series, they will be tough. Chicago may be the only team to beat them.

Los Angeles Kings: They are not finishing games of late. I am still a believer but they need to prove it on the stretch run here.
WHAT REMAINS: 18 games. 10 home 8 away. 10 vs current playoff teams. 2 vs DAL. 1 vs WSH, CHI, NYR, BOS, NSH, MIN, SJS, ANA.
A lot to weigh this team by in their remaining games. I know they aren't going to lose easily. How they do will change my playoff outlook.

St Louis Blues: This team is deep. That makes them difficult. The defense is as good as any. It all comes down to those forward lines. It is hard to judge fully because I think they have only had five games this season with their full forward setup.
WHAT REMAINS: 15 games. 7 home 8 away. 8 against current playoff teams. 2 vs WSH, CHI. 1 vs ANA, DAL, SJS, BOS.
Good remaining schedule. We will know better about them and I think they can maintain their spot in the playoffs.

Gotta eat. More to come...

How things look: The last 15 or so...

Fifteen games or so to go for most teams. It is becoming clouded. Mid-season saw a shortlist of dominant teams. Two have won five of the last six Cups. Chicago and Los Angeles. Washington was the other clear cut dominant team.

Sure Dallas had looked dominant - but they pulled up becoming just a .500 team.

Well, as this season winds down - there are a lot of teams proving their potential, adding to the mix that may well lift that Stanley Cup for 2016.

In the East.
Washington Capitals: You remove that Montreal loss a few weeks ago and this team looks as good as ever. Their losses of late owe more to a tough schedule than a glaring weakness. Dallas, Chicago, Florida and the Rangers are the only ones to get wins against this team since the All-star break. That is solid.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 7 home 10 away. 11 are against current playoff teams. 2 vs ANA, STL, PIT. 1 vs LAK, SJS, NSH, COL, NYI.
A lot to be known for the Caps. To me this is the Caps best team ever - O to D.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa has nine wins in a row. And they should. It's all been against teams they need to beat. That said - they are also playing good hockey at both ends. You want to outshoot them, good luck. You want to play tight, they oblige that too. Tampa is looking like that team from last year.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 8 home 9 away. 7 are current playoff teams. 2 vs NYI. 1 vs BOS, DAL, DET, FLA, NYR.
Really, the Lightning should finish strong and hold on to the top spot in the Atlantic. They are good. I am not sure they improved over last season. But really, the WEST is different and if one of those top teams gets upset, Tampa could lift the Cup vs San Jose or St Louis. I think Chicago wins in 6 again, if that is what happens.

New York Rangers: The Rangers have found that resilient play that got them wins in the beginning of the season. They aren't great at anything but they are solid at it all. They block shots. They give up shots but fight to contest them. The goalies are good...um Lundquist, Duh. And they help the goalies out just enough - limiting those easy goals mostly.
WHAT REMAINS: 16 games. 8 home 8 away. 11 are current playoff teams. 2 vs DET, PIT. 1 vs ANA, LAK, SJS, FLA, BOS, TBL, NYI
That is not an easy schedule. It will be difficult to hold on the two spot in the Metro division. On the other hand, lots will be learned in this final 5th of the season. Maybe, Staal and Nash can make this team too deep to keep out of the net. I am hopeful but not betting anything.

Florida Panthers: Injuries have kept this team inconsistent the entire season. If they can work in the new deadline trade talent and get in the playoffs playing together, they can be tough. Losing four of their last five to weaker teams is not good.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 8 home 9 away. 6 are current playoff teams. 2 vs BOS. 1 vs NYR, NYI, TBL, DET.
Well, the schedule is not bad on paper. But it is full of teams they have been losing to of late. A lot to prove and a great schedule to prove it against.

New York Islanders: This team might be coming together at just the right time. They are deep. They have top tier offensive talent. The defense is a solid top four and not soft to play against. I would imagine John Tavares is hungry for a deep playoff run.
WHAT REMAINS: 19 games. 10 home 9 away. 11 are current playoff teams. 3 vs PIT 2 vs TBL 1 vs BOS, FLA, NSH, DAL, WSH, NYR.
I'm not sold on this team yet. But I do think they have enough depth. Can they score without giving up chances? That is what to watch for in the remaining 19.

Boston Bruins: The Bruins just won't go away. No one picked them to do much as they seemed to be rebuilding. But the core is carrying through. I am impressed.
WHAT REMAINS: 16 games. 6 home 10 away. 11 against current playoff teams. 2 vs FLA. 1 vs CHI, TBL, NYI, SJS, ANA, LAK, NYR, STL, DET.
This is no easy schedule to end the season. The Bruins should feel good if they come close to splitting this. If they steal more points, I will be impressed...again.

Pittsburgh Penguins: I keep waiting for the Pens to look dominant. But I think the defensive commitment is killing them. They can score but not without opening things up. That will be their death if they can't fix it.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 7 home 10 away. 9 vs playoff teams. 3 vs NYI. 2 vs WSH, NYR. 1 vs DET, NSH.
The Pens can show a lot by how they finish the season out. I have too much respect for Crosby and Malkin to fully not believe in this team. That said. Defense is necessary. Lets see if they can do it.

Detroit Red Wings: Similar to the Bruins, but more rebuilding going on. The young guys are good but not good enough and the old guys are great but...OLD. The defense is committed and not easy - the system works - for years. However, if they don't do it right, they could slip out of the playoffs. Their cushion over the Flyers is scant 4 points with one fewer game remaining. The Flyers are impossible to predict.
WHAT REMAINS: 17 games. 8 home 9 away. 7 against current playoff teams. 2 vs NYR. 1 vs FLA, TBL, PIT, MIN, BOS.
I am not counting on this team finishing strong. That said..can the Flyers play consistent enough to take this spot? Hard to answer that.

Next up...the West.

Small preview-ish

Tampa Bay at New Jersey

The Devils need to stop losing and Tampa looks to extend its winning ways. This should be a good game.

Minnesota at Washington

Washington dropped one they want back to Montreal. Minnesota have lost two in a row. If Minnesota comes out hot, they have opportunity to get goals early because Washington has been giving them up early.

Boston at Carolina
This might be the Trade-Staal game. A loss here and the Canes might just send Staal out for whatever they can get. A win, especially if Eric gets in on it, might hold the trade. Really though, the Canes play St Louis Sunday…so they have a couple of games before they go pulling the trigger. If things go according to current patterns, Boston loses and Canes win, both are on win one, lose one patterns that happen to mesh well for each other.

Edmonton at Anaheim

Buffalo at San Jose
Rookie see, rookie score. These two games are the situation - must wins against the up-and-coming young stars of the league. I enjoy watching all of these teams (least of all San Jose, but of late I like their style)

Just a little Review.

Flyers with a good win. Minnesota coming back to earth in the Torchetti Era?
The Flyers are a difficult team. When things go right for them, they have beaten most anyone. When things don't, they struggle. You can call it luck but I think it is more systemic with this group of players. I haven't watched enough to be sure, but their top-scorers are streaky and the bottom forwards are even moreso. They don't have any defensive forwards past Sean Couturier C, who I think is awesome. And their defense is not deep with talent. So all this is to say - Minnesota may have just met the Flyers on the wrong night. But in all likelihood, it is a sign that this team is solid but needs a true finisher/scorer to really be dangerous.

Side Note: All credit is being given to Michael Neuvirth G on this win - primarily for a save he made in the closing seconds. To his credit, he didn't give up on the play but let's be honest, if he had, would he be in the NHL? No. Charlie Coyle shot that puck low and in a savable place. Go watch Tyler Seguin's goal against Winnipeg last night - he put the puck where the goalie had NO CHANCE. Anyway, another small case of Goalies are Overrated.

Devils get stung
This is not a good time to be losing, right!? The Devils had a good win the other night against my Rangers and then negate it by losing here. The Blue Jackets are playing much better hockey of late - this could warrant a lot of people picking them to rebound next season. But the Devils are looking to make the playoffs and giving up six goals without countering but one keeps them on the outside looking in. What makes me steamed? The Rangers should have been more UP against this team the other night - two points you can't get back, Rangers!

Hurricanes blow another Must-Win
The Canes are not making the playoffs by this win one-lose one approach. They've played more games than the teams they are chasing. Still plenty of time, but this team has to get on a win streak soon or there is no hope. Toronto has a kid, Josh Leivo - watch for the hype.

Coyotes can't recover in a solid Panthers performance
It's tough to watch, if you are a Coyotes fan. They have a had a lot of good games against tough teams and just can't get that needed goal. Almost will not get them in the playoffs and really any hopes for them getting in are almost gone. Another team that needs a win streak. Florida got a couple of players back last night and that may have made all the difference. I have pointed out many times how fragile this team is - when a top line forward or defenseman goes out, this team becomes just another middle-to-low tier team. But when the line-up is healthy, they can be as good as any team in the league. Aleksander Barkov is one of those players. He returned last night and got two goals in the victory. When they are all there, I like this Panther team.

New York Rangers steal one from the Blues
When you read about this game, you will hear all about Lundquist saving the team. You will also hear, if the Rangers play like this every night, they lose. Don't listen to it. The Rangers gave up shots, but they were mostly savable. This is how they played early in the season - something with the style works. Are they clearing rebounds? Giving Lundquist space to see? It works when they do it well and also when they can finish the opportunities they do get. St Louis, after putting a solid 5 game win streak together has dropped two-in-a-row. Perhaps it is the pressure from challenging Chicago and Dallas for the top spot in the Central, which two games ago they had in their sights. They played well, they just didn't finish the opportunities given. And the Rangers made them work for the puck. A great game.

Side Note: Again another game where the winning goalie gets all credit. Go and watch one series of events in particular: St Louis gets a nice breakaway. Henrik Lundquist makes the save and then Chris Kreider takes it the other way and scores. This inevitably becomes the BIG exchange of the game - Lundquist makes the save and Jake Allen doesn't, Rangers win, St Louis loses. But watch the play. The shot by St. Louis's Scottie Upshall is right into Lundquist's chest. The shot by Kreider is off a sweet pass from Oscar Lindberg - Kreider, in the middle of the circles, places the shot wide and high. Switch goalies here and nothing changes - Upshall doesn't score and Kreider does. So really, credit Kreider with a nice shot and blame Upshall for his bad one. Which leaves me saying Goalies are Overrated.

Predators hand Chicago another loss
The Predators are trying to put it together and it seems to be working. They have a big test on Saturday against St. Louis. Chicago had a chance to regain the Central division lead. Oh well. I didn't get to watch this game. I'd like to know how the flow was.

Jets trade Ladd break Loss streak...hmmm
Dallas has to win these games. This is a Winnipeg team with a lot of holes. Apparently Dallas has some big holes as well. (I think I have mentioned, their defense/own-zone play is not great - this team needs a defenseman.) Winnipeg found the holes. Dallas found holes. Winnipeg re-found earlier found holes. I always feel like when Dallas gets down, it's ok. They have the nasty finishers that can exploit even small lapses in defense. But it requires good transition from their own zone and ultimately not letting the puck get in their zone for too long. Another bad loss by the Stars.

Side Note: Jets trade Andrew Ladd for not a lot (this season). This is a great move by Chicago. Ladd will be excellent on the second or third line in Chicago. If everything goes well, this moves Chicago up quite a bit in the Stanley Cup chase! I await Dallas and LA to see if they make a move to plug their deficiencies.

New York Islanders continue solid play
The Flames are not in it this year. The Islanders did what they needed to do, again. The Isles are challenging the Rangers for second in the Metropolitan division by running 7-1-1 in their last 9 - 15 of 18 possible points. That is putting together good hockey. If they keep it up, I will be a believer in this group. The defense makes me question them. John Tavares is a no-brainer. If they get two solid lines under his line, the offense is tough. So a lot comes on the defense. In this current run, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy have played very good hockey. If it's real, this Tavares led team will be tough in a 7 game series.

Senators and Canucks play a game
With the win, Vancouver sits 8 points out of a playoff birth. Ottawa sits only 4 out.

Los Angeles struggles for victory against the young Oilers
Los Angeles won the game. They worked and were easily the better team. Does their play of late indicate anything? Are they getting into playoff gear? They play Anaheim twice in the next week. We'll know more then. On top of that, the Kings might make a trade deadline move. That game against Anaheim on Sunday might determine how big this deadline move will be! It's going to be a big week. Edmonton continues to be fun to watch. Even against a pretty stifling opponent like the Kings. So much room to grow for the Oilers - I hope management can be patient. The fans have had to endure a lot of futility, but this core will be very good, given time.