Small preview-ish

Tampa Bay at New Jersey

The Devils need to stop losing and Tampa looks to extend its winning ways. This should be a good game.

Minnesota at Washington

Washington dropped one they want back to Montreal. Minnesota have lost two in a row. If Minnesota comes out hot, they have opportunity to get goals early because Washington has been giving them up early.

Boston at Carolina
This might be the Trade-Staal game. A loss here and the Canes might just send Staal out for whatever they can get. A win, especially if Eric gets in on it, might hold the trade. Really though, the Canes play St Louis Sunday…so they have a couple of games before they go pulling the trigger. If things go according to current patterns, Boston loses and Canes win, both are on win one, lose one patterns that happen to mesh well for each other.

Edmonton at Anaheim

Buffalo at San Jose
Rookie see, rookie score. These two games are the situation - must wins against the up-and-coming young stars of the league. I enjoy watching all of these teams (least of all San Jose, but of late I like their style)

Just a little Review.

Flyers with a good win. Minnesota coming back to earth in the Torchetti Era?
The Flyers are a difficult team. When things go right for them, they have beaten most anyone. When things don't, they struggle. You can call it luck but I think it is more systemic with this group of players. I haven't watched enough to be sure, but their top-scorers are streaky and the bottom forwards are even moreso. They don't have any defensive forwards past Sean Couturier C, who I think is awesome. And their defense is not deep with talent. So all this is to say - Minnesota may have just met the Flyers on the wrong night. But in all likelihood, it is a sign that this team is solid but needs a true finisher/scorer to really be dangerous.

Side Note: All credit is being given to Michael Neuvirth G on this win - primarily for a save he made in the closing seconds. To his credit, he didn't give up on the play but let's be honest, if he had, would he be in the NHL? No. Charlie Coyle shot that puck low and in a savable place. Go watch Tyler Seguin's goal against Winnipeg last night - he put the puck where the goalie had NO CHANCE. Anyway, another small case of Goalies are Overrated.

Devils get stung
This is not a good time to be losing, right!? The Devils had a good win the other night against my Rangers and then negate it by losing here. The Blue Jackets are playing much better hockey of late - this could warrant a lot of people picking them to rebound next season. But the Devils are looking to make the playoffs and giving up six goals without countering but one keeps them on the outside looking in. What makes me steamed? The Rangers should have been more UP against this team the other night - two points you can't get back, Rangers!

Hurricanes blow another Must-Win
The Canes are not making the playoffs by this win one-lose one approach. They've played more games than the teams they are chasing. Still plenty of time, but this team has to get on a win streak soon or there is no hope. Toronto has a kid, Josh Leivo - watch for the hype.

Coyotes can't recover in a solid Panthers performance
It's tough to watch, if you are a Coyotes fan. They have a had a lot of good games against tough teams and just can't get that needed goal. Almost will not get them in the playoffs and really any hopes for them getting in are almost gone. Another team that needs a win streak. Florida got a couple of players back last night and that may have made all the difference. I have pointed out many times how fragile this team is - when a top line forward or defenseman goes out, this team becomes just another middle-to-low tier team. But when the line-up is healthy, they can be as good as any team in the league. Aleksander Barkov is one of those players. He returned last night and got two goals in the victory. When they are all there, I like this Panther team.

New York Rangers steal one from the Blues
When you read about this game, you will hear all about Lundquist saving the team. You will also hear, if the Rangers play like this every night, they lose. Don't listen to it. The Rangers gave up shots, but they were mostly savable. This is how they played early in the season - something with the style works. Are they clearing rebounds? Giving Lundquist space to see? It works when they do it well and also when they can finish the opportunities they do get. St Louis, after putting a solid 5 game win streak together has dropped two-in-a-row. Perhaps it is the pressure from challenging Chicago and Dallas for the top spot in the Central, which two games ago they had in their sights. They played well, they just didn't finish the opportunities given. And the Rangers made them work for the puck. A great game.

Side Note: Again another game where the winning goalie gets all credit. Go and watch one series of events in particular: St Louis gets a nice breakaway. Henrik Lundquist makes the save and then Chris Kreider takes it the other way and scores. This inevitably becomes the BIG exchange of the game - Lundquist makes the save and Jake Allen doesn't, Rangers win, St Louis loses. But watch the play. The shot by St. Louis's Scottie Upshall is right into Lundquist's chest. The shot by Kreider is off a sweet pass from Oscar Lindberg - Kreider, in the middle of the circles, places the shot wide and high. Switch goalies here and nothing changes - Upshall doesn't score and Kreider does. So really, credit Kreider with a nice shot and blame Upshall for his bad one. Which leaves me saying Goalies are Overrated.

Predators hand Chicago another loss
The Predators are trying to put it together and it seems to be working. They have a big test on Saturday against St. Louis. Chicago had a chance to regain the Central division lead. Oh well. I didn't get to watch this game. I'd like to know how the flow was.

Jets trade Ladd break Loss streak...hmmm
Dallas has to win these games. This is a Winnipeg team with a lot of holes. Apparently Dallas has some big holes as well. (I think I have mentioned, their defense/own-zone play is not great - this team needs a defenseman.) Winnipeg found the holes. Dallas found holes. Winnipeg re-found earlier found holes. I always feel like when Dallas gets down, it's ok. They have the nasty finishers that can exploit even small lapses in defense. But it requires good transition from their own zone and ultimately not letting the puck get in their zone for too long. Another bad loss by the Stars.

Side Note: Jets trade Andrew Ladd for not a lot (this season). This is a great move by Chicago. Ladd will be excellent on the second or third line in Chicago. If everything goes well, this moves Chicago up quite a bit in the Stanley Cup chase! I await Dallas and LA to see if they make a move to plug their deficiencies.

New York Islanders continue solid play
The Flames are not in it this year. The Islanders did what they needed to do, again. The Isles are challenging the Rangers for second in the Metropolitan division by running 7-1-1 in their last 9 - 15 of 18 possible points. That is putting together good hockey. If they keep it up, I will be a believer in this group. The defense makes me question them. John Tavares is a no-brainer. If they get two solid lines under his line, the offense is tough. So a lot comes on the defense. In this current run, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy have played very good hockey. If it's real, this Tavares led team will be tough in a 7 game series.

Senators and Canucks play a game
With the win, Vancouver sits 8 points out of a playoff birth. Ottawa sits only 4 out.

Los Angeles struggles for victory against the young Oilers
Los Angeles won the game. They worked and were easily the better team. Does their play of late indicate anything? Are they getting into playoff gear? They play Anaheim twice in the next week. We'll know more then. On top of that, the Kings might make a trade deadline move. That game against Anaheim on Sunday might determine how big this deadline move will be! It's going to be a big week. Edmonton continues to be fun to watch. Even against a pretty stifling opponent like the Kings. So much room to grow for the Oilers - I hope management can be patient. The fans have had to endure a lot of futility, but this core will be very good, given time.

Thoughts on the Playoffs: West

The West could get crazy, eh?

The Kings usually finish strong when they win the Cup, so watch them put a streak together, or maybe I was wrong calling them Stanley Cup Champs before the season. Marian Gaborik RW has been missed. He is one of those guys that can make something out of nothing.

The Blackhawks are looking as tough as ever. Can any beat them in a best of seven series?

Those are the reigning powers of the West. Every year there are others that seem ready to unseat these two, but they never can. Anaheim has been the only team to really challenge. The way things started this year, Dallas was the only real threat. But lately, Anaheim has recovered form and two other teams have shown they might be worthy of the crown.

Dallas's offense is still strong two-lines deep. Come playoff time, their own-zone play better tighten up. But really, this will be a fun playoff team to watch - that offense playing intensely will be zipping.

Anaheim is as hot as any team has been in the league. I'm suspect of their defense, but hard to argue with results. 14-2-1 in their last 17.

St. Louis has been in the conversation the last few seasons and when they get to the playoffs, they drop out early. This year is a much deeper team. The defense with Shattenkirk healthy is very solid. The offense is pushing three dangerous lines and they play own-zone aware as well.

San Jose is the surprise team to me. Adding Joel Ward and a healthy Logan Couture is having an impact. The past seasons this team would always play soft. Marleau and Thornton are talents, no doubt, but they are easy to bang around. They don't have to carry it all now. And Joe Pavelski is doing great as Captain.

Crazy to think both Chicago and Los Angeles may finish 3rd in their divisions. Don't doubt them though. They have shown, they are made for the playoffs.

I'm excited to see this last 20 or so games play out. The West will be won by one of these.

State of Affairs: Eastern Conference

Let's look at what every Eastern Conference team is facing for the rest of the season**

I moved St. Louis and San Jose to the upper tier. I moved Florida down to b-level. Detroit, now on a 4 game losing streak, got moved down a level, as well. I almost moved Arizona down, but thought I should wait until they are clearly out of the playoffs.

To get the probable points, I just took the points percentage since mid-January and applied to the potential points for the remaining games.

Metropolitan
Washington: 92pts. 12H 12A. 7a 4b 9c 4f - probable pts: 130/140
New York Rangers: 74pts. 10H 13A. 6a 5b 7c 5f - probable pts: 103/120
New York Islanders: 69pts. 10H 15A. 2a 7b 8c 8f - probable pts: 102/119

Atlantic
Florida: 75pts. 9H 14A. 0a 6b 7c 10f - probable pts: 103/121
Tampa Bay: 70pts. 10H 13A. 1a 6b 9c 7f - probable pts: 102/116
Boston: 70pts. 11H 11A. 7a 6b 6c 3f - probable pts: 98/118

Wildcard
Pittsburgh: 68pts. 12H 11A. 3a 7b 9c 5f - probable pts: 99/114
Detroit: 69pts. 10H 12A. 3a 6b 4c 9f - probable pts: 93/113

Need to over-perform:
Carolina: 64pts. 10H 12A. 2a 9b 4c 7f - probable pts: 91/108
New Jersey: 65pts. 11H 11A. 5a 7b 5c 5f - probable pts: 90/109
Philadelphia: 63pts. 13H 11A. 2a 6b 9c 7f - probable pts: 87/111

Hopeless:
Ottawa: 62pts. 10H 12A. 4a 7b 3c 8f - probable pts: 85/106
Columbus: 55pts. 12H 10A. 2a 5b 11c 4f - probable pts: 82/99
Montreal: 61pts. 11H 11A. 6a 7b 3c 6f - probable pts: 77/105
Buffalo: 55pts. 10H 12A. 3a 4b 5c 10f - probable pts: 77/99
Toronto: 50pts. 16H 9A. 2a 9b 6c 8f  - probable pts: 66/100

** Here are the way I rank the teams for the remaining games.
a - teams that have had multiple good win streaks in the season and are still playing at that caliber or close to it.
ANA,CHI,DAL,LA,SJS,STL,WSH
b - teams that have teased with greatness - having a win streak or more but have smaller loss streaks too.
BOS,FLA,MIN,NYI,NYR,TBL
c - teams that have beaten good teams and can't be just forgotten. Still in the playoff hunt.
ARZ,CAR,COL,DET,NSH,NJD,PIT,PHI
f - teams that just aren't good.
BUF,CGY,CBJ,EDM,MTL,OTT,TOR,VAN,WIN

State of Affairs: Western Conference

Let's look at what every Western Conference team is facing for the rest of the season**

I moved St. Louis and San Jose to the upper tier. I moved Florida down to b-level. Detroit, now on a 4 game losing streak, got moved down a level, as well. I almost moved Arizona down, but thought I should wait until they are clearly out of the playoffs.

To get the probable points, I just took the points percentage since mid-January and applied to the potential points for the remaining games. (I do adjust based on extremes)

Central
St Louis: 79pts. 8H 12A. 7a 3b 5c 5f - probable pts: 107/119
Dallas: 80pts. 13H 9A. 7a 3b 8c 4f - probable pts: 105/124
Chicago: 81pts. 10H 10A. 6a 4b 5c 5f - probable pts: 105/121

Pacific
Anaheim: 70pts. 12H 12A. 7a 2b 4c 11f - probable pts: 107/118
San Jose: 69pts. 15H 9A. 4a 3b 6c 11f - probable pts: 106/117
Los Angeles: 72pts. 15H 9A. 8a 3b 2c 11f - probable pts: 100/120

Wildcard
Nashville: 67pts. 11H 11A. 8a 1b 6c 7f - probable pts: 94/111
Minnesota: 64pts. 12H 11A. 6a 2b 6c 9f - probable pts: 91/110

Need to over-perform
Colorado: 66pts. 11H 9A. 7a 3b 6c 4f - probable pts: 89/106
Arizona: 60pts. 9H 14A. 9a 4b 5c 5f - probable pts: 83/106
Vancouver: 58pts. 13H 10A. 5a 8b 5c 8f - probable pts: 78/104
Calgary: 55pts. 11H 13A. 7a 4b 6c 7f - probable pts: 73/103

Hopeless:
Winnipeg: 54pts. 14H 10A. 9a 3b 5c 7f - probable pts: 74/102
Edmonton: 50pts. 11H 11A. 7a 2b 5c 8f - probable pts: 66/94

** Here are the way I rank the teams for the remaining games.
a - teams that have had multiple good win streaks in the season and are still playing at that caliber or close to it.
ANA,CHI,DAL,LA,SJS,STL,WSH
b - teams that have teased with greatness - having a win streak or more but have smaller loss streaks too.
BOS,FLA,MIN,NYI,NYR,TBL
c - teams that have beaten good teams and can't be just forgotten. Still in the playoff hunt.
ARZ,CAR,COL,DET,NSH,NJD,PIT,PHI
f - teams that just aren't good.
BUF,CGY,CBJ,EDM,MTL,OTT,TOR,VAN,WIN

On tap for the day

Must wins:
Philadelphia at Toronto
Philadelphia. Leo Komarov, Toronto's leading scorer, will be out of the line-up. Just another reason Philly has to win this game. They haven't out of a game in any loss for a while. A loss here moves Toronto closer to that number one pick this summer.

Detroit at Ottawa
Detroit. Ottawa is playing inspired hockey. If Detroit wants to win, they will have to tighten up - giving up 16 goals in its last three games.

Winnipeg at Florida
Florida. Florida needs to turn things around. Again though, it may just be another instance where they miss injured Aleksander Barkov. He's been out of the line-up for three significant losses.

Colorado at Edmonton
Colorado. The Avs look to be putting things together lately, winning three of their last four. But really it should be a four game streak because losing to Buffalo is not how a borderline team makes the playoffs. Edmonton is fun to watch, the young talent there will usually deliver some eye-opening plays.

Good games:
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
Tampa's offense is struggling. When they opened things up against Winnipeg, they gave up a lot too. Pittsburgh has struggled a bit as well, but had a good game against Detroit the other night. Both teams need points.

New Jersey at Washington
New Jersey certainly needs a win, losing its last two to mid-tier teams. Washington is not a mid-tier team, so the Devils will have to get everything right. The Caps are 7-2-0 since the All-star break.

Los Angeles at Nashville
Los Angeles is 3-4-1 since the All-star break. They have played well but just aren't finishing. Nashville is still up and down but are playing better on offense.

Boston at Dallas
Both teams are looking to rebound from tough losses. This should be a good game.

St. Louis at Arizona
Arizona had a very inspired win against the Stars. They will need another performance like that in this one. St. Louis is unbeaten since Jaden Schwartz returned and they are playing this Hitchcock system very well.

And more games...

Tonights five games are a mix:

Have to win:
Philadelphia at Montreal
Philadelphia has to win. Montreal is still up and down, but mostly down. Losing this one and they drop below .500. Crazy to think after that hot.hot.so.hot start. The Flyers very up and down and need to show some consistency by beating teams like the Habs.

Battling it out:
New York Islanders at New Jersey
New Jersey has played consistently stifling hockey this season. When they score, they have a chance to win. The Isles are like a bit more consistent than the Flyers with less high highs and less low lows, too.

San Jose at Carolina
San Jose is hot. Carolina needs to be. That loss last night to Ottawa hurts. If the Canes can pull out a victory here, we can forget about last night's game, kinda.

Buffalo at Columbus
Vancouver at Calgary
These two games are...well, watch for the players, right? Johnny Gaudreau, Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, and others. It is worth it some times.

Games for the night

Fun group of games tonight.

Let's start with the "must wins":
New York Rangers at Toronto
Rangers. The Maple Leafs can't be taken lightly, but they are mostly inept. The Rangers need to come out and play as they did last night. Maybe take a lot of penalties in order to work on the Penalty Kill?

Carolina at Ottawa
Carolina. Ottawa has speed but the Canes do too. Ottawa can score, so the Canes will have to shut down the center in their zone and can't let Mike Hoffman get any clean shots. It would be nice to see Eric Staal start carrying this team on his back.

Winnipeg at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay. The Lightning have to figure out their offense. Too much talent here to not score consistently - this is why they couldn't beat the Blackhawks last season.

Minnesota at Edmonton
Minnesota. The Wild can't let this wily group of youngsters blow up the new coach's inspiring start. Edmonton is going to get offensive chances - Minnesota has to counter and continue playing well in their zone and limit any clean shots.

Anaheim at Vancouver
Anaheim. Anaheim has been powering through lately. Ryan Getzlaf and company are showing why so many picked them to go all the way this year. Losing to Vancouver would be wrong.

Potentially key games:
Washington at New York Islanders
The Islanders need a win here, but can't expect one. The Caps want to keep controlling play as they have most of the year. Look for Tavares and Okposo to step up. If Brock Nelson and Anders Lee get on the board, the Caps might be in trouble.

Dallas at Arizona
Arizona needs points. They have to start showing they can steal points from the big teams and Dallas is about as big as they get. It will be hard to keep Benn/Seguin from getting chances. The Coyotes' kids need to press and keep energy on the puck. If they give nothing easy, the Coyotes can steal it.

Detroit at Pittsburgh
Sidney Crosby is playing better and so are the Penguins. But they still aren't showing the ability to consistently beat any top teams. Detroit is not the cream of NHL as they once were but Pavel Datsyuk is looking to be in form again and Henrik Zetterberg rarely misses a beat. These two have some good skilled guys around them and they seem to always be able to find them. The defense here is surprisingly tight as well. Pittsburgh's defense is suspect, so they need to start showing they can control their zone.

San Jose at Florida
The Sharks are as hot as any team right now. They are playing both ends well. Florida has struggled a bit lately, perhaps because of the absence of Aleksander Barkov. On top of him being out, Brandon Pirri, who has good hands, Erik Gudbranson are out. Don't count this loss against the Panthers too much, but if they pull out a victory - San Jose may need to make a move before the trade deadline.

Los Angeles at St. Louis
No true loser in this game. St. Louis is finally sporting their true full roster...er...except for stalwart defenseman, Alex Pietrangelo. Kevin Shattenkirk has filled in well. Los Angeles, still without Marian Gaborik, never is pushed over easily. This could be playoff hockey!

Boston at Nashville
Both of these teams need to prove themselves. Nashville is like the Penguins, but with star d-men instead of forwards and, like the Pens, they can't seem to get consistent play. They need victories against teams like the Bruins. The Bruins keep plugging along and pulling out tough points. The core of Krejci, Marchand, Bergeron and Chara are keeping the Bruins more than relevant.

Erik Karlsson Love

Man, I got no problems with Erik Karlsson. He is one fantastic skater. He has good hockey sense as well. And as a defenseman on Ottawa, he also is their offense - leading in assists and points. He's already won two Norris Trophies in his young career. Obviously, the guy is good.

But to me, this article is why the new stats geeks miss the boat.

Karlsson is very good. But the idea of comparing him to Paul Coffey has to be a numbers and stats thing. Watch Karlsson play, he doesn't stand out like Coffey did. He doesn't look as dominant in either zone as Duncan Keith or Drew Doughty. But to these guys...eye test is unimportant, it is all about the numbers.

The Rangers have a tough schedule! Game one was last night...

Over the rest of the season the Rangers are playing 25 games, 15 of them are against top teams. Last night was the first of those 15. It didn't go so well, but it could have been worse...maybe.

Chicago came, Chicago saw, Chicago conquered...Am I right!?

a 4-3 loss, really (5-3 on the scoreboard after an ENer). The Rangers didn't play terrible hockey. It is clear though they have holes and it is clear that Chicago can exploit holes. If it isn't Kane or Toews, it's some youngster like Panarin or Teravainen. Artem Anisimov and guys like that can shine too. And then stop all that and you have to work against that system and those defensemen - Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson.

The Rangers for maybe 48 of the 60mins played really well. Both teams exchanging zone times and getting chances. The Rangers again make the goalie Crawford look unbreakable, though. We are not full of finishers. It rotates some...Zuccs, JT Miller and now Kevin Hayes? But none are true finishers

It isn't new. The Rangers are not talented enough to beat teams with good mobile defensemen that also have more two productive forward lines. Fortunately, not many teams have that. But looking at the last two depressing games, last night and the other night against the Kings where the Rangers lost in overtime after leading by a goal in third, we can see this team needs something else.

Maybe we package three forwards and Lundquist for Jack Eichel! Would Buffalo bite on that!?

Perspectives: Martin Brodeur

One of the most consistent and successful goalies ever, Martin Brodeur.

His story, his words.

I have nothing but respect for Brodeur. I remember well the first time I really watched him play. It was 1994. The Stanley Cup Playoffs were amped up for me, Mark Messier was leading my Rangers on a great run for the Cup. My hopes were high. So I watched it all.

And I watched Martin Brodeur. He was tight in net. The Rangers had a pretty good goalie in Mike Richter but Martin Brodeur seemed a bit more sure. Richter always had a way to give up that goal to keep an opponent in a game. And he did that on a few different occasions against the Devils in the Eastern Conference finals. Lose this series and watch the Devils win their first Stanley Cup.

Fortunately the Rangers were relentless. Messier made sure of that. After his legendary guarantee after a game 5 loss, the Rangers dismissed the Devils in game seven.

That series was the beginning of a very dominant run for the New Jersey Devils and Martin Brodeur was certainly a capable and solid goalie for them.

Games Tonight: Only one that matters...

Chicago visits Madison Square Garden tonight. Watch it on NBC Sports Network at 8:00pm!

The Rangers get Captain Ryan McDonagh D back from concussion-like symptoms. The Rangers have played well without him - going 3 - 0 - 1 with a loss to Los Angeles. I hope the line-jostling due to his return doesn't loosen their own-zone play. They have kept the middle of the ice pretty clean despite giving up a lot of shots.

Chicago would be in their worst slump of the season with a loss here. 1 - 2 - 1 in the four prior to tonight. Not that the Blackhawks are in any trouble, they've played a pretty open style and it will eventually burn a team. The thing is this team also know how to close it back down. If I am coaching them, why not open it up some.

The other two games tonight:

Montreal at Colorado
I still have problems believing in Colorado. And on the flip-side, Montreal is tough to beat if they get a couple of early goals. Colorado in moments is one of the more efficient finishing teams in the league.

Minnesota at Calgary
Calgary has plenty to prove, if they can. If not, they have some players to trade by the end of the month. Minnesota needs to prove things. I believe in this team being better than they have been. The new coach can give them a fresh start. Tonight is the second game under new coach: John Torchetti.

Thoughts about the Projections

First, my rankings are skewed not only by the loose performance scores but also by my bias. St. Louis might be an 'a' team but I put them in the 'b' group. Likewise, Vancouver may be better than I give them credit. Even as such, I am ok with how everything falls out.

It is certainly only an estimate as to what is to come. There are some good sites out there that have tight formulas for predictions. I am sure that all predictions will be wrong in some areas.

My main goal here was to display what all the teams are facing going down the stretch.
Every team has between 48 and 54 points on the table. A lot can happen. But in most cases things don't change so much.

Some are basically locks for the Playoffs:

In the east...
It seems highly unlikely that Washington and Florida will drop out of the playoffs.
It seems crazy to think the top 7 teams are locked though - I think the top 6 are pretty good.
The Rangers and Bruins face the toughest schedule.
Florida might have the easiest.

In the west...
It seems highly unlikely that Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Anaheim and San Jose won't make it.
That leaves two spots for the next six teams. Watch for multi-game streaks.
Minnesota, with their new coach, might be the most likely to get hot.

Anyway, leave me some thoughts. And if you notice any wrong numbers. please let me know.

State of Affairs: Eastern Conference

Let's look at what every Eastern Conference team is facing for the rest of the season**

Metropolitan
Washington: 86pts. 14H 13A. 4a 7b 12c 4f - probable pts: 129/140
New York Rangers: 70pts. 12H 14A. 6a 9b 5c 6f - probable pts: 104/122
New York Islanders: 66pts. 11H 16A. 4a 5b 10c 8f - probable pts: 104/120

Atlantic
Florida: 72pts. 11H 14A. 0a 7b 7c 11f - probable pts: 113/122
Detroit: 67pts. 10H 15A. 4a 4b 6c 10f - probable pts: 103/117
Tampa Bay: 64pts. 11H 15A. 2a 6b 9c 8f - probable pts: 102/116

Wildcard
Pittsburgh: 64pts. 13H 14A. 3a 10b 8c 6f - probable pts: 100/118
Boston: 68pts. 12H 13A. 8a 7b 6c 4f - probable pts: 99/118

Need to over-perform:
Carolina: 62pts. 12H 13A. 2a 10b 5c 8f - probable pts: 95/112
Philadelphia: 60pts. 13H 13A. 3a 6b 8c 9f - probable pts: 95/112
New Jersey: 65pts. 12H 12A. 6a 7b 6c 5f - probable pts: 94/113

Hopeless:
Montreal: 58pts. 13H 12A. 8a 6b 5c 6f - probable pts: 87/108
Ottawa: 58pts. 12H 12A. 5a 5b 6c 8f - probable pts: 86/106
Buffalo: 53pts. 11H 13A. 2a 5b 6c 11f - probable pts: 82/101
Columbus: 53pts. 13H 11A. 3a 8b 9c 4f - probable pts: 81/101
Toronto: 49pts. 18H 9A. 5a 8b 6c 8f  - probable pts: 80/103

** Here are the way I rank the teams for the remaining games.
a - teams that have had multiple good win streaks in the season and are still playing at that caliber or close to it.
ANA,CHI,DAL,FLA,LA,WSH
b - teams that have teased with greatness - having a win streak or more but have smaller loss streaks too.
BOS,DET,NYI,NYR,SJS,STL,TBL
c - teams that have beaten good teams and can't be just forgotten. Still in the playoff hunt.
ARZ,CAR,COL,MIN,NSH,NJD,PIT,PHI
f - teams that just aren't good.
BUF,CGY,CBJ,EDM,MTL,OTT,TOR,VAN,WIN

State of Affairs: Western Conference

Let's look at what every Western Conference team is facing for the rest of the season**

Central
Dallas: 80pts. 14H 10A. 5a 7b 8c 4f - probable pts: 121/128
Chicago: 79pts. 10H 12A. 4a 7b 6c 5f - probable pts: 113/123
St Louis: 75pts. 10H 13A. 7a 4b 7c 5f - probable pts: 111/125

Pacific
Los Angeles: 69pts. 15H 11A. 7a 4b 4c 11f - probable pts: 112/121
San Jose: 65pts. 15H 12A. 4a 4b 8c 11f - probable pts: 107/122
Anaheim: 66pts. 13H 13A. 6a 3b 4c 13f - probable pts: 104/118

Wildcard
Nashville: 62pts. 13H 12A. 7a 4b 6c 8f - probable pts: 96/112
Minnesota: 58pts. 13H 13A. 6a 4b 5c 11f - probable pts: 95/110

Need to over-perform
Vancouver: 56pts. 15H 11A. 5a 8b 5c 8f - probable pts: 94/108
Colorado: 62pts. 12H 11A. 5a 4b 7c 7f - probable pts: 93/108
Calgary: 53pts. 13H 14A. 6a 4b 9c 8f - probable pts: 90/108
Arizona: 58pts.11H 15A. 9a 7b 5c 5f - probable pts: 89/110

Hopeless:
Edmonton: 50pts. 13H 11A. 4a 4b 8c 8f - probable pts: 82/98
Winnipeg: 53pts. 14H 12A. 10a 4b 5c 7f - probable pts: 78/105

**Here are the way I rank the teams for the remaining games.
a - teams that have had multiple good win streaks in the season and are still playing at that caliber or close to it.
ANA,CHI,DAL,FLA,LA,WSH
b - teams that have teased with greatness - having a win streak or more but have smaller loss streaks too.
BOS,DET,NYI,NYR,SJS,STL,TBL
c - teams that have beaten good teams and can't be just forgotten. Still in the playoff hunt.
ARZ,CAR,COL,MIN,NSH,NJD,PIT,PHI
f - teams that just aren't good.
BUF,CGY,CBJ,EDM,MTL,OTT,TOR,VAN,WIN

Games Tonight: Why are they important to me?

Here's looking to the games I think will be fun tonight:

Philadelphia at New Jersey
This game sucks. I want both teams to get no points. However, personally, I'd rather the Flyers get the two points without letting New Jersey get any. Keep it a two point game. Both teams are in that zone of not easy to beat.

Los Angeles at Washington
The Kings have been kinda listless since the All-Star break. In moments they look ready for the playoff run, in others they look unable to finish despite good chances. Washington is still playing as the most complete team in the league. Let's see Justin Williams get the game-winner here.

Winnipeg at Carolina
Carolina has to win this game. The Jets are not a great team, but if the Canes don't finish their chances, they can get stung by them. Losses to such teams just make the playoffs that much farther away.

Buffalo at Ottawa
Fun players in this one. Erik Karlsson D for Ottawa is a premier player. Some cut his defensive ability, but I think it is because they are blinded by his offense. Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Zemgus Girgensons for Buffalo are all up-and-comers.

San Jose at Tampa Bay
The Lightning slip back into their inability to score and lose. Their game starts with scoring and then they clamp it shut with defense. When they play too open, they leave holes. San Jose is positive points in 14 of their last 16 games for 25pts. That is going to get them in the playoffs. They can create goals and now with Joel Ward and a healthy Logan Couture, they are tough. The Lightning need a win here to reaffirm that they can make a Stanley Cup push.

Dallas at St Louis
St. Louis is coming along and they aren't even fully healthy yet. This will be the Blues first real test though. Dallas has found it's scoring touch again without giving too much up defensively. This could be big for them, if so.

Anaheim at Edmonton
The Ducks are playing as good as anyone right now - 11-2-1 in their last 14. This should be an easy win, but none-the-less fun to watch. Connor McDavid has 4 goals and 12 points in the 7 games since his return. But other than Jordan Eberle, none of their other young talent has done much. Anaheim can ALMOST take this game lightly.

New Stats: Erik Karlsson vs Drew Doughty

I've said it plenty. I don't like this new age of statistical analysis in the world of hockey. It is primarily based on shots.

Shots tell who controls the puck.
Shots tell effectiveness on the ice.

Shot counts don't tell that much. If it takes my team 12 shots to generate two unsavable opportunities that my players typically finish half the time. And your team takes 10 to generate 3 shots that they finish half the time. Then certainly, I have to limit you to fewer shots than you have to limit me. And that is nice to think about...but it doesn't even work that cleanly.

And the statisticians like to say, "yeah yeah but over a large sample pool, all of that type of stuff is captured in shot and goal count data." And this may be true...but in any given game and in any given group of games...the patterns break a lot.

That leads me to this argument I came upon on twitter. The yahoo hockey guy - Ryan Lambert or PuckDaddy at yahoo writes Karlsson is better than Doughty, no debate!

He uses points and relative stats (based on shots and goals) to prove his point. The numbers are difficult to argue with - no doubt.

But the truth is, if you've seen Drew Doughty play big games and even not so big ones - you know he is elite. Erik Karlsson is not a lot different to me - he is elite. A great skater and smart offensive zone guy and more than capable in his own zone too. But numbers based on shots are not going to convince me of Karlsson being better - more valuable - than Doughty.

Teams play different styles. And as far as defensemen go, there is none better to look at than Scott Stevens. He started his career at the Washington Capitals. He put up some really solid offense oriented years there. Went to St. Louis and had another good offensive output. Then he started his cup winning years at New Jersey in 1995. His scoring production went way down - 40 or above points with some in the high 70s to none above 32 in New Jersey (after his first two seasons, his second being the Devils' first Stanley Cup). His role changed. He used those same skills that were generating points to become one of the best own-zone d-men of his era. It comes down to how the coach uses a player in a given system.

So who knows what Doughty does in that Senators' system and Karlsson in that Darryl Sutter system. We don't know. We can't know. So if you want to say some contrived stats prove Karlsson is better, even in this season, than Doughty, you are lying to yourself. They are both elite.

Karlsson is having more offensive success than Doughty. Doughty is having a very successful team oriented success. Both play big minutes. Neither team will let either player go. That should be enough.

What's going on!? The season seasons.

i'm sitting here watching Will Ferrell do ex-pres Bush. it's not porn - that would be f'd up. I honestly just feel twisted. This NHL season is winding UP into playoff gear. Who's poised to win it all? Who needs to drop out...

Tampa Bay Lightning...they are looking close but are 2-3-0 in the last five. Losing to Montreal, Ottawa, and St.Louis. This isn't terrible, but it leaves questions. What do the Lightning need?

The New York Rangers, playing WITHOUT Rick Nash and Ryan McDonagh, have won three in the last four. People can credit Lundqvist but the team is playing very tight in their own end and once again finally controlling and creating in the offensive end. Nice.. But they aren't this solid, right? The same basic team as that december team...can the Rangers be confident?

Who are the Montreal Canadiens!? Still no Carey Price, but 3-3-0 since the all-star break. Two losses to Buffalo!? Makes no sense when you can beat Edmonton, Carolina and Tampa Bay. This is a solid team. A 9 win streak to start the season isn't a fluke, right?! This team needs a play-maker center and another mobile d-man - who doesn't, right? So far, still not making the playoffs, but should they be taken seriously?

The Carolina Hurricanes. Fans can't be more excited and twisted. This team dominates control a lot, creating shots. They don't finish a lot but when they do they win. Never an easy game against the Canes. Even in blowouts the Canes generate shots. What does this team need? The defense is young, but has become pretty solid. I think they need another finisher. When Rask or a guy like Nestrasil get one (or two) the team wins. Someone more consistent! Where is Skinner?

Florida seems consistent. If they lose any of the top 6 or top 4 on defense, they can't win much. I hope they can stay healthy come playoff time. Do they need something? Drouin? Ladd?

The Los Angeles Kings. Currently on a big road adventure, they can't win two in a row!? It isn't like they are playing bad...but they aren't finishing teams off. The Islander loss and the Devils loss just show they aren't finishing well. A guy like Justin Williams is being missed, maybe?

The Blackhawks! Losing three in a row here!? Don't get me wrong, San Jose, Dallas and Anaheim are showing some legit play ( more later on them). Chicago is not showing that late scoring touch. Is this the truth? It could be how they get dumped in the playoffs, you know!

Will Ferrell George W Bush is pretty funny. The only thing more entertaining in the oval office might be the Donald.

Anaheim, St Louis, San Jose, New Jersey and Boston are all in that same spot...Which team shows up? None will be easy. Do any really show the ability to beat a top team in a seven game series? I am not sure. I believe in Anaheim and St. Louis. San Jose...maybe. This is the TOUGHEST Shark team ever.

This season is very much in the air. The Caps are the only "gimme" so far. I can't wait to see more!

Goalies are Overrated: A lot hear...give it your ear.

Royal Road

Give this podcast interview a listen.
Again, ore proof that the goalie doesn't do much to determine shot quality.

Games Tonight (again just ranked as i want to see them)

Lots of games tonight.

San Jose at Chicago
Can San Jose score against the Blackhawks? This is interesting just to get a feel for this San Jose team.

Dallas at Minnesota
Dallas has been having trouble scoring. Both teams have problems locking teams down. Could be a fun game.

Washington at Nashville
Still want to see this Predator team find itself. Washington is so tough to keep out of the net. Nashville has four tough ones - any points here help.

Tampa Bay at Montreal
Are the Lightning a team to be feared? Until last night they looked to be on the right side of things. Was last night a fluke? Montreal should have trouble getting this 3rd win a row. Longest streak since a four game win-streak late November.

Los Angeles at Boston
Los Angeles has been struggling a little here - showing signs that maybe they aren't a top-tier team. Boston is a good team for them to make a statement against. Boston has played some inspired and resilient hockey so far this season.

Florida at Buffalo
Jack Eichel watch. Florida sucked last night. They should rebound here and get an easy win.

Anaheim at Philadelphia
Anaheim played below level last night. If they drop this one, it makes the easy February schedule not look easy.

Edmonton at New Jersey
Connor McDavid is worth watching - New Jersey, not so much. New Jersey needs wins.

Winnipeg at St. Louis
St. Louis has some soul-searching to do if they lose this one.

Toronto at Calgary
This is two crappy teams. No Phanuef for Toronto could make this game interesting.

New York Islanders at Columbus
Columbus is trying to make an impact and get out of the basement. The Isles really need to start winning consistently. Especially against teams like this...

Vancouver at Colorado
Not much here. However, Colorado is still trying to creep into the playoffs.

Last Night: What a mess!?

Four games on the docket last night. Three went twisted.

The Rangers kinda "had to" win last night. They put in a very good strong game, controlling the play mostly. They, like they do, didn't finish a lot of opportunities - making a goalie look sensational and all. But they were solid on both ends. To be without McDonagh and Nash and control things as they did is solid. That they did this against a rival and a team striving to get in the playoffs is great! This game is not a surprise, but not a guarantee.

The other three games...just didn't meet my expectations. I suppose these are all flukes? If not, they may be indicative of some small issues for some Stanley Cup focused teams.

Anaheim has been on a tear. 13-4-1 since Christmas. Three good wins since the John Scott D All-star tourney, beating a hot San Jose team, a very good LA team and a hungry Arizona squad. Pittsburgh has turned things around - Sidney Crosby C playing like he usually has in his career makes them dangerous every night. So this isn't a gimme game for the Ducks and certainly for a much improved Penguins team - 10-4-4 since Christmas is no joke - this game is winnable. But 6-2?! The Penguins looked fast at every facet. Kris Letang D was moving the puck smartly and with purpose (he did have that one big gaffe that set up Ryan Getzlaf's C goal). Crosby was everywhere too - go watch his second goal, amazing! I think both of these teams are offense-first teams and in moments both are fairly unstoppable. A different night and it's probably a 6-3 Pens loss because Corey Perry RW and Getzlaf can be quite a force when "ON". For me, this game shows Anaheim's still in need of another big minute d-man or perhaps a shutdown center. The Pens need the same, but I don't think as critically.

Tampa Bay losing 5 - 1 to Ottawa is a big deal on the score sheet. But looking at the highlights - three of those goals were sloppy play and one was soft - bad goalies can KILL a team. The other, empty net. This game is a hiccup for the recovered Lightning. Still, a shock. Watching the game, I kept thinking the Lightning would start controlling things. They never really did, but it wasn't like the Senators dominated anything. And really, the Senators are opportunistic when they get clean chances - just on most nights, they have to open things up too much to create those chances.

Much different for Florida. Don't read too much into it, I guess. But the third period collapse and the inability to really generate the good chances they usually do could be indicative of soft offense - think San Jose over the years, the ability to score in bunches on pretty plays but when the playoffs come around, they get owned by the tougher teams. Florida may well suffer this. Keep in mind, the Red Wings are no slouch. Pavel Datsyuk C and Henrik Zetterberg LW are great two-way players and no one has better hands than Pavel, Patrick Kane maybe...but probably not. And the Detroit system can make things very difficult in their end. Don't look at shot counts for this Florida team. But it is no easy task keeping the likes of Trochek, Barkov, Jagr, Huberdeau, Pirri, and Bjugstad under control - any one of those guys turn a pedantic scoring chance into a sweet goal.

Three of these games I expected to be great - settled in the last minute or overtime. And the one blow-out I did expect, Ottawa reversed on me. Thems the bounces, sometimes, right?

The Early games are Important

Washington at New Jersey
Washington should beat the Devils. As a Ranger fan, they better! It will be interesting to see how the Caps expose Corey Schneider, if they can. The Devils have mastered the close games but I don't they will be able to contain this Caps team.

New York Rangers at Philadelphia
The Rangers have been susceptible all over the ice since their early season run. Philly has been stellar and terrible all season. Currently, the Flyers are playing consistently well. The Rangers have to win this one. Losing it and they will be mired in the battle for a playoff spot the rest of the season.

If the Rangers win and Washington also. This is a big points victory for the Blueshirts.

Another Thing: J.T. Miller for the Rangers

Don't get me wrong, I love what he is doing. He's finishing. It isn't luck - he has been on a tear of late, putting the puck where the goalie isn't. It's helping the Rangers tremendously.

But to claim the guy has "discovered" something new is slighting the facts. Derick Brassard C is very key to J.T. Miller's emergence. It is like Chris Drury. Sure he potted some important goals. But without Peter Forsberg grabbing all the defense's attention, Drury would have never been open enough to shoot those shots.

I hope J.T. Miller proves me wrong and continues his torrid scoring pace with or without Brassard, but until he does, don't over-analyze his play.

Some Reviews...

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Two teams recovering from early season slumps. The Lightning are playing like champs right now. Two scoring lines are clicking. The third and fourth are making things difficult. This team is scary. Pittsburgh is still a defenseman away or something. Granted last night's game was without Evgeny Malkin C. That is big. But he's not known for defensive plays. And the Lightning created and finished some beauties. Sidney Crosby C is in form. Love this kid. He does so many little things well.

Arizona at Anaheim
Sadly, the Coyotes could not slow this hot Ducks team down. The Ducks are coming together. Similar to the Lightning, they are scoring with their top lines and being difficult with the others. Hampus Lindholm D is proving himself to be a top-tier d-man. Arizona needs points. And they need Anaheim to not get points. This game hurts. The 'Yotes are young and have a future, but if they want the longer season they have to win these games. Their lack top-tier depth on offense and defense gets illuminated against team like the Ducks and Kings.

Carolina at Winnipeg
The Canes had to win this game. Winnipeg is pulling the Paul Maurice shrivel and die routine (he's done it with a variety of teams). The Canes are hoping to make the playoffs. The Canes played a great game, capitalizing on some good opportunities. The Jets, well, the Jets just don't have it. I don't fully understand how a team becomes so inept. It's like the Avs at the beginning of the season - the personnel were in place, but the team just looked lost. They recovered and coach Patrick Roy looks solid. The Jets look lost. Maurice is gone. The trade deadline will be interesting though.

Hockey Stats: The New Wave sucks but they're arrogant...

Defensemen don't impact rebounds.

This sounds ridiculous, right? Well, that is the cold, hard truth claims the numbers guys from this article. And this is why SHOTS statistics are bogus.

Clearly, a defenseman that can clear the front of the net and get to a rebound quickly and effectively helps keep pucks out of the net. In the above article, the numbers are pulled from shots. So two shots that occur within a small time frame (two seconds in the article), the second shot is considered the rebound shot. Am I the only one that sees a problem with that assumption?

There is no statistic in hockey for rebounds. These guys make it up. Just as Corsi makes up puck possession based on shots. It is similar and close but it is not enough. Shots cannot describe a game.

Any statistical analysis that removes rebounding, clearing the net, disrupting shots is not describing hockey. You cannot measure these types of things from shot counts.

Measuring all hockey events based on shots is like measuring atoms with a yardstick.

These numbers guys continually attack "eye-ing" the game. Yet they create all stats out of shots. Shot counts tell you one thing - one team took more shots than the other. Nothing else definitive can come from them. I've seen (using my eyes) the Carolina Hurricanes dominate the shot totals and lose. To this, the numbers guys attribute luck. The fact is that the Canes often take shots instead of making a smarter play - such as a pass to an open man with a better angle. While the other team was getting their shots off of the transition, which if played with skill creates much more dangerous opportunities.

Hockey comes down to this: Put the puck on net where the goalie isn't. Shots do not measure that. Our eyes do see when a defenseman like Duncan Keith continually gets in the way of a clean shot attempt. And we also see when a guy like Patrick Kane roofs the puck from in close. The new wave of statistics glosses over these special skills and it is wrong. But I promise, after reading the above article, you will feel dumb for thinking against the numbers...

Reviews of a couple...

Minnesota at New York Rangers:
The Rangers played a mostly good game. J.T. Miller LW is continuing his hot times, which is great. Having a guy to count on nightly for a goal means a lot. Ryan McDonagh D and Derick Brassard C played great. The Rangers gave up two early and battled back for a 4-2 win. Much needed points.

That said, I still saw those breakdowns. After the Rangers got the lead, Minnesota may have stepped up some while the Blueshirts played a bit of prevent. There were multiple times where the back middle of the ice was open. It's like the Rangers are pressing toward the puck in their own zone too much. In one series, Old man Boyle D was stuck in front of Lundqvist guarding two Wild players. This type of thing will get a team burned. Again, fortunately it wasn't last night.

Anaheim at Los Angeles:
This was a really good game. Both teams are poised for the playoffs. I am impressed that Anaheim hasn't tightened up their own zone play. This is so important for breaking out into good transitions going the other way. Los Angeles wasn't beaten badly. It was a close game. The way Los Angeles got that late goal means they are never a team to take lightly, I like that.

Tons of games tonight: the way they matter to me

I'll go rank order for me:

Anaheim at Los Angeles
The Ducks are really clicking. Fortunately for them, it is not too late. A good win against San Jose on Tuesday with a win tonight and this Anaheim team is back in the "Might win the Stanley Cup" discussion, as they were before the season started. Los Angeles is still the solid Cup winning team they have shown to be. This game will be fun to watch.

Minnesota at New York Rangers
The Rangers have a couple of injuries going into this one. Rick Nash LW and Kevin Klein D are big minutes players. But the Rangers need some points out of this game and the other guys will have to step up. JT Miller C continues to be the second half version of Mats Zuccarello LW. Derick Brassard C is playing well. The Rangers are not holding onto a playoff spot by much, a win would be big.
The points are big for Minnesota as well. They have been struggling of late and find themselves on the outside-looking-in for the playoffs.

Chicago at Arizona
This game is a chance for the Coyotes to steal two points. If they can, I think their playoff hopes go up a lot. With Anaheim and San Jose playing so well, they Yotes need to get points against the top teams. Chicago is Chicago and they are a fun group to watch every night.

New York Islanders at Washington
Washington with Ovechkin is much better than Washington without him. He's back tonight. the Islanders haven't shown a lot of consistency and they need points. I look for Kyle Okposo RW and John Tavares C to be picking the pace up as the season grinds down. Maybe not tonight though - the Caps are not an easy to team to start something against.

Dallas at Colorado
Dallas is trying to bounce back and return to early season form when no lead against them was safe and the top-line of Seguin and Benn was basically unstoppable. They had a good win against the Jets, but this Colorado group is not the Jets. Colorado is playing good hockey these days, with no easy line to play against. When the Avs get chances, they seem to have a lot of guys who can finish.

Detroit at Florida
The Panthers are looking so good right now. Detroit had a tough loss last night to the rolling Lightning. Very difficult to come back after the break against these two teams, but if they do sneak in two points tonight somehow, it bodes well for a resilient Red Wing team.

Edmonton at Ottawa
Gotta watch that McDavid kid.

Boston at Buffalo
The Sabres are fun to watch. Boston needs points.

New Jersey at Toronto
Will Toronto get two in a row here? I hope so. I need Jersey to lose for the Rangers' sake. but really I don't care too much. I love some of the Devils' players (Henrique, Severson, Stempniak) Toronto is annoying because they are like the First Love of at least half of Canada. So even a glimmer of hope can get obnoxious reactions of how they will be a future Dynasty on the backs of Babcock and Lamoriello. I have nothing against these two - but praising the future now is bad form.

San Jose at St. Louis
Always interested to see how these two teams are playing. San Jose is trying to show that upper-tier success is real. St. Louis is getting un-injured and also trying to prove they are an upper-tier team.

Nashville at Philadelphia
Both teams need to show consistency.

Columbus at Vancouver
Almost left this off the list.

Game Thoughts?

Just not much I can say, I only got to watch the Montreal-Buffalo game.

Buffalo has a really good young core. Perfect for Dan Bylsma to prove he better than that one-cup Pittsburgh team that probably should have two or three in these Crosby years.

Montreal. Are they really in a "wait until Price returns" mode? Personally, I want them to be, but it seems like a poor management decision. The team lacks defensive depth. It lacks offensive depth. The Habs have shown they can be very good when playing a tight system but their pieces have to be performing optimally - no missing on chances. No throwing the puck into pads when you have time to place it high and to the posts. Still, they win that game last night if the defense keeps guys out of the middle.

Anyway, Montreal comes out of the break looking to be more of the same.

Buffalo. These kids are having fun out there. They are creative. They have multiple forward lines and good defensemen to build around. I enjoy watching them play.

Perspectives: Johnny Hockey

Great article from another player: Johnny Gaudreau

The kid is very good. He has Patrick Kane hands. Maybe the other stuff too.

Let it begin, again.

All-star weekend done. Let's get back to hockey.

Things that interest me right away.

First, the season has heated up. There are a lot of teams wanting to be in the playoffs and on the bubble. Every team has 70pts or so on the table. No one is going undefeated, of course. And really, the best team is going to grab 62% of that. So that could be 44pts to end the season.

Florida, Washington, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles are obvious choices to maximize the points - as they have already done so a lot this season. Any of these get those 44pts and they get the President's Trophy (most points in the league and home ice advantage throughout the playoffs).

St. Louis and Tampa Bay are poised to make a strong showing. Both of these teams had some early struggles. Injuries plagued both as well. And going into the break both have shown signs of strong recovery.

The Lightning put together a nice run, going 9-2-0 in January. This is how I expected them to play all season. They are deep on offense. They have 4 solid d-men. And they have two stalwarts in Steven Stamkos C and Victor Hedman D. Add to that a number of players that have shown the ability to step it up. So far it's been Nikita Kucherov RW, but there are many - Tyler Johnson C, Vladislav Namestnikov C, Alex Killorn C, Ryan Callahan RW, Ondrej Palat LW and even Valterri Filppula C. Add to this that management can trade Jonathan Drouin LW for additional depth on defense and this team could be the Capitals killer come playoff time.

St. Louis wasn't quite as hot in January, posting 5-3-4 record. However they ended strong and they will be getting Jaden Schwartz LW soon. He is a solid forward and will definitely help. They are stacked on defense with the rise of big 22 year old Colton Parayko D. And if they need more fire-power, they are willing to let Kevin Shattenkirk D go come trade deadline. Personally, I always feel like Ken Hitchcock teams play better than they are - so come playoff time, they are up against truly better teams and don't get far. That said, if they make the right trade and actually add to the team skill-level, I believe they could make a good run at the Stanley Cup.

San Jose, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Minnesota, Colorado and Nashville have all shown the ability to win in bunches and the ability to lose in bunches. To me these teams are still a piece away from really threatening for the Cup. But there are some good pieces out there to be had. Andrew Ladd LW from Winnipeg, Kevin Shattenkirk D from St. Louis are game-changers if moved to the right team.

Pittsburgh, Carolina, Philadelphia, and Anaheim. Anaheim and Pittsburgh are real threats. They can't be as bad in these final months as they were to start the season. Both have put together some wins to end January. And both have some top-tier talent to carry them. Nothing clicked early on and now both are poised to make a run.

Carolina and Philadelphia are the other side of that. They really could do as bad worse than they have done. Carolina has some great puck possession numbers and if they can finish a little more chances, they are a scary team. Philly is a wild-card. I've seen them truly control a game and I've seen them look almost hapless in both zones. And I haven't even watched a lot of their games. At least when Carolina loses, they still had chances. Philly, in losing, has looked Columbus-like.

Montreal. Poor Montreal. I have to say, I am anxiously awaiting Carey Price's return. This team looked so solid early and him leaving due to injury has been focused on. Personally, I think they were riding perfect play and perfect finishing of chances. And let's be honest, Max Pacioretty LW and Tomas Plekanec C are not as consistent as Jamie Benn LW and Tyler Seguin C - a team relying on them to get 40goals and 90pts is dreaming. They were on pace for that in those first 9 games or so. So my view is the Habs need more scoring forwards. I really don't see them making the playoffs from this point. But the goalie may be more able to change a team's fortunes than I believe. And for that, I await Price's return.

So much to look forward to. 24 teams playing tonight is a good way to jump back into things. Let's go!