New Stats: Erik Karlsson vs Drew Doughty

I've said it plenty. I don't like this new age of statistical analysis in the world of hockey. It is primarily based on shots.

Shots tell who controls the puck.
Shots tell effectiveness on the ice.

Shot counts don't tell that much. If it takes my team 12 shots to generate two unsavable opportunities that my players typically finish half the time. And your team takes 10 to generate 3 shots that they finish half the time. Then certainly, I have to limit you to fewer shots than you have to limit me. And that is nice to think about...but it doesn't even work that cleanly.

And the statisticians like to say, "yeah yeah but over a large sample pool, all of that type of stuff is captured in shot and goal count data." And this may be true...but in any given game and in any given group of games...the patterns break a lot.

That leads me to this argument I came upon on twitter. The yahoo hockey guy - Ryan Lambert or PuckDaddy at yahoo writes Karlsson is better than Doughty, no debate!

He uses points and relative stats (based on shots and goals) to prove his point. The numbers are difficult to argue with - no doubt.

But the truth is, if you've seen Drew Doughty play big games and even not so big ones - you know he is elite. Erik Karlsson is not a lot different to me - he is elite. A great skater and smart offensive zone guy and more than capable in his own zone too. But numbers based on shots are not going to convince me of Karlsson being better - more valuable - than Doughty.

Teams play different styles. And as far as defensemen go, there is none better to look at than Scott Stevens. He started his career at the Washington Capitals. He put up some really solid offense oriented years there. Went to St. Louis and had another good offensive output. Then he started his cup winning years at New Jersey in 1995. His scoring production went way down - 40 or above points with some in the high 70s to none above 32 in New Jersey (after his first two seasons, his second being the Devils' first Stanley Cup). His role changed. He used those same skills that were generating points to become one of the best own-zone d-men of his era. It comes down to how the coach uses a player in a given system.

So who knows what Doughty does in that Senators' system and Karlsson in that Darryl Sutter system. We don't know. We can't know. So if you want to say some contrived stats prove Karlsson is better, even in this season, than Doughty, you are lying to yourself. They are both elite.

Karlsson is having more offensive success than Doughty. Doughty is having a very successful team oriented success. Both play big minutes. Neither team will let either player go. That should be enough.