Let's look at what every Western Conference team is facing for the rest of the season**
Central
Dallas: 80pts. 14H 10A. 5a 7b 8c 4f - probable pts: 121/128
Chicago: 79pts. 10H 12A. 4a 7b 6c 5f - probable pts: 113/123
St Louis: 75pts. 10H 13A. 7a 4b 7c 5f - probable pts: 111/125
Pacific
Los Angeles: 69pts. 15H 11A. 7a 4b 4c 11f - probable pts: 112/121
San Jose: 65pts. 15H 12A. 4a 4b 8c 11f - probable pts: 107/122
Anaheim: 66pts. 13H 13A. 6a 3b 4c 13f - probable pts: 104/118
Wildcard
Nashville: 62pts. 13H 12A. 7a 4b 6c 8f - probable pts: 96/112
Minnesota: 58pts. 13H 13A. 6a 4b 5c 11f - probable pts: 95/110
Need to over-perform
Vancouver: 56pts. 15H 11A. 5a 8b 5c 8f - probable pts: 94/108
Colorado: 62pts. 12H 11A. 5a 4b 7c 7f - probable pts: 93/108
Calgary: 53pts. 13H 14A. 6a 4b 9c 8f - probable pts: 90/108
Arizona: 58pts.11H 15A. 9a 7b 5c 5f - probable pts: 89/110
Hopeless:
Edmonton: 50pts. 13H 11A. 4a 4b 8c 8f - probable pts: 82/98
Winnipeg: 53pts. 14H 12A. 10a 4b 5c 7f - probable pts: 78/105
**Here are the way I rank the teams for the remaining games.
a - teams that have had multiple good win streaks in the season and are still playing at that caliber or close to it.
ANA,CHI,DAL,FLA,LA,WSH
b - teams that have teased with greatness - having a win streak or more but have smaller loss streaks too.
BOS,DET,NYI,NYR,SJS,STL,TBL
c - teams that have beaten good teams and can't be just forgotten. Still in the playoff hunt.
ARZ,CAR,COL,MIN,NSH,NJD,PIT,PHI
f - teams that just aren't good.
BUF,CGY,CBJ,EDM,MTL,OTT,TOR,VAN,WIN
Would like to see how above stacks up with end result.
ReplyDeleteI think you're being a little too kind to the top teams. No way Dallas only misses out on 4 pts in its next 24 games. And no way Pacific has three 100 point+ teams.
No disagreement. Just stuck with a formula on limited time. I need to put it in a spreadsheet to play with different outcomes.
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ReplyDeleteThe way the formula worked was, equal tier (a,b,c,f) get's half points. One tier below get 3/4 and then all points after that. Plus a Home differential bonus. No Away negative bonus...
ReplyDeleteClearly too positively weighted.
Changed the formula a little...still needs another tweak...the top teams are too high.
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