Goalies Are Overrated: Are all shots equal? (3)

Are all shots equal? Am I implying SHOT QUALITY?
Absolutely.

What makes some shots higher quality than others?
Lots of things but i'll just focus on four: the shooter, the pass/passer, cleanness, location.

• The Shooter: This is so obvious, I shouldn't need to say it. For clarity and completeness though, clearly there is a huge difference between A.Ovechkin taking the shot and a guy like Jay Beagle. Ovechkin needs less time, less space and his shot comes off faster, more deceptive and more accurate - like the difference between a Special Forces sniper and regular infantry.
• Does the goalie impact: NO.

• The Pass/Passer: Not as obvious but still obvious. A simple example: one pass is slow and clear and the goalie can follow it freely. Another pass the goalie is frozen by a subtle fake shot that leads to a sweet saucer pass - the puck lands flat for the shooter and nothing but net to shoot at (a la Wayne Gretzky - the best passer to play the game among other things :) ).
• Does the goalie impact: Knowledge of the passer might give him better guessing ability. But mostly NO.

• Cleanness: Here is what I mean. Does the shot come off clean or is there a defenseman involved. A shot by any NHLer that has time to set up and no defensive pressure, from a stick or body contact, is a clean shot. Every player at this level with a clean shot will at a certain percentage put the puck in a spot NO goalie can stop.
• Does the goalie impact: NO.

• Location: For any shot, from any angle there exists a spot that a goalie, every goalie, cannot block. If a shot goes into this area - if the location is perfect, it's a goal.
• Does the goalie impact: Mostly NO. Again like the pass, a goalie can gamble on the location - he can be educated in shooter tendencies and commit to that shooter's spot - but that will make the other spots easier for the shooter. You see this a lot on short-side goals - often it is just the goalie cheating to the far-side because that is an educated guess on the shooter or situation.

What part does the goalie play in shot quality?
Almost none. The goalie can only respond and guess. And hope that the shooter does not put it where the shooter wants to put it.

Now a goalie can do some cheating or other subtle things to make the shooter change his shot. This does have an impact. But overall, the shooter given time has the outcome on the end of his stick. It is up to the shooter to finish the play.

So what affects shot quality?
If not the goalie, that leaves one thing - the guys in front of him. TV heads do comment on the events between shot and goalie but the goalie's actions are the easiest to see and, thus, hugely overblown.

A big save where the goalie, like Jonathan Quick, slides across and stops a shot on a seemingly empty net with his leg pad is easy to see and it definitely looks KEY. But when you take into account even just the four items addressed above you will begin to see, the goalie did ALL HE COULD DO - it wasn't special. Every goalie would do the same thing (and all do it).

The difference between a goal and THAT SAVE is mostly due to the shooter (affected by the defensive set-up), the pass leading up to (affected by the defensive player guarding the passer), the cleanness of (affected by the defense and the players getting a stick or body on the shooter), and the location of the SHOT not who the goalie is. The defense and system affect the first three of things. The location of a shot comes down to execution by the shooter as a result of the first three.

Occassionally, a goalie does become more involved in a play. Stick checks or blocking a pass are common for goalies to do. But very limited. There are no stats on this.